Basra: Massive Drug, Petroleum smuggling; Christians, Musicians Harassed

Because the southern Iraqi city of Basra (1.3 million) is under British military occupation rather than American, it is little covered in the US press (does anybody else think this is odd?) There have been several British and Arab reports about the situation there recently. They indicate that although security has improved, property values are up, and people are again holding weddings and smiling, many serious problems remain. The rise of radical Shiite vigilanteism is among the grave new challenges to the development of Iraqi democracy.

Reuters reports (via ash-Sharq al-Awsat 12/31) that 400 shops owned by Christians, whom Saddam had permitted to sell liquor, have been forced to close since April, as the Shiites have come to power politically (see below). [An informed observer in Basra reports that this number is hugely exaggerated, but that many shops have been closed.] Stores have been firebombed, and some Christian shopkeepers have been shot, it is said by radical Shiite groups with names like "The Revenge of God, Hizbullah, and the Organization of Islamic Rules." Their members appoint themselves vigilantes, patrolling the streets armed in search of criminals and drug dealers, and executing them on the spot. These Shiite militias have supporters on the local councils Christians complain that they have been forced out of the liquor market, but that in many cases Muslim merchants have stepped into the breach, making inroads into what had been a Christian monopoly.

Steven Farrell reports in the London Times (12/30) of Basra: "Many of the theatres and music halls where [musicians] used to play have been shut, or converted for use by the many new Islamic parties that claim to represent Iraq's Shia Muslims, the overwhelming majority in Basra. While ice-cream and electronics stores thrive, the fundamentalists have shut down all alcohol shops, aided by rocket-propelled grenades and the summary killing of liquorsellers. Video and CD stores have been closed or had their wares heavily censored. In one CD shop in central Basra, posters of Britney Spears have been taken down. In their place are speeches of ayatollahs, to appease the self-appointed moral guardians." He says that Shiite Islamist gangs have beaten up musicians returning from weddings, e.g.

The London daily ash-Sharq al-Awsat has run a three-part series on Basra the past few days, by journalist Ahmad Jawdah. In his piece of Dec. 29, he speaks of the problems of drug smuggling and high inflation (BBC trans.):

Mu'taz Salih of Basra's Police Directorate, told Jawdah that open borders with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iran allowed drug smuggling. " Traffickers smuggle marijuana from Iran where one kilogram of hashish is worth 600 dollars and then they seek to smuggle and sell it for around 1,700 dollars." He said that in some cases Iraq was just a transit route for trans-border smuggling, a new phenomenon.

Catherine MacIntosh, an aide to the British commander in southern Iraq, told Jawdah that oil smuggling is a particular problem, with about 3,000 tons smuggled out each week to Kuwait and the UAE, causing a "structural imbalance" in the Iraqi economy. Reproached for leaving the borders so open as to allow this smuggling, she replied with some heat, "We have 10,000 soldiers in a 150,000-square-mile area that consists of five governorates - home to nearly five million people . . . in addition to 1,000-kilometre border with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iran. We want to achieve security and help the Iraqis to rebuild the state and establish services and security for the people of the south. It is such a vast area of land and it is difficult to control this kind of crime . . . "

Jawdah says that Basra Deputy Governor Abdul Hafiz al-Ani introduced himself as a businessman, and a political independent. He said he was a representative of a local cleric Sayyid Ali al-Safi [Abd al-Hakim] al-Musawi, who in turn represented Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani in Basra. [The deputy governor of Basra is indirectly a representative of Sistani? Maybe the place is already a theocracy!]
Al-Ani hoped for a constitution and an elected government, but said, "We do not want any more foreign forces in our country. We hope the British forces keep their promises and withdraw next June." He said personal freedoms were "permissible" but not if they were abused and became an obstacle to consumption. He admitted that liquor stores had been firebombed, and said, "We would never allow the sale or consumption of alcohol in Basra."

On Baathists: He said they would not be allowed to participate in public life because they were not trusted. He said they were criminals who should be held accountable for their crimes, as the Koran said. He did allow that those forced to join the party would be treated differently.

on Dec. 27, Jawdah had reported a conversation with a policeman in Basra who was from the smaller town of Samawah, also in the Shiite south. He said, "Unemployment in Basra is not less than 60 per cent and 40 per cent of the people are living under the poverty line. I am from the city of Al-Samawah where conditions are worse and life more difficult. The unemployment rate in Al-Samawah is 70 per cent among men and 95 per cent among women and at least 35 per cent of its population are living under the poverty line."

" . . . the allocation of jobs in Al-Samawah is done on a partisan, tribal and sectarian basis. The council under the total control of Al-Da'wah Party, the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, and the "Tha'r Allah" (God's revenge) group of the Badr forces. The Sunnis who represent around 10 per cent of Al-Samawah's population are the ones treated most unfairly. They are subjected to discrimination and this discrimination has even reached the point where one of the Shi'i parties seized a Sunni mosque in Al-Samawah, the Imam Ali Bin-Abu-Talib Mosque, two months ago."

Ashcroft Appoints Special Prosecutor in Plame Identity-Disclosure Scandal

Attorney-General John Ashcroft recused himself Wednesday in the investigation of the Valerie Plame case, saying he will appoint a special prosecutor. High Bush administration officials broke US law in July of 2003 by revealing to reporter Bob Novak that Valerie Plame, wife of Ambassador Joe Wilson, was an undercover CIA operative. These Bush appointees did untold damage to US intelligence efforts, since they unmasked and put in danger all the contacts and agents overseas who had been known associates of Ms. Plame, an expert in preventing the spread of weapons of mass destruction. The officials outed Plame in order to punish her husband, Wilson, for blowing the whistle on the Bush administration, revealing that he had reported to the US government as early as 2002 that the allegations of Iraqi uranium purchases from Niger were false.

Bush knows who did this dastardly deed, or could easily find it out. He has declined to demand that these persons resign and turn themselves in. This incident shows how vindictive and petty the Bush administration is, and how utterly unconcerned it is with real national security and weapons proliferation.

Ashcroft initially resisted the appointment of a special prosecutor. That he now has given in and recused himself raises a large question. Does he himself now have a strong inkling of who leaked Plame's identity? If the person was close enough to Ashcroft such that the attorney general felt he had to recuse, the person was probably high indeed. (Karl Rove, "Bush's [campaign] Brain", is one suspect.)

The Democratic candidates generally brushed off Ashcroft's gesture, promising that the Plame scandal would be an issue in the forthcoming presidential campaign.

By the way, although Bob Novak broke no law in revealing Plame's identity, it is a shame on CNN that they did not make him resign over the issue. Newscasters have had to resign over ambiguous comments taken as racial slurs. Surely outing an undercover CIA operative is just as serious an offense?

More Iranians in Karbala than Iraqis?

One finds these little gems in things like theCoalition Provisional Authority Briefing on Dec. 30, already on the Web. (Participating was Brig. Gen. Mark Kimmitt, Deputy Director for Operations and Daniel Senor, Senior Coalition Provisional Authority Adviser.)

The below passage is rich in what it says about how porous Iraq's borders are and how big the Iranian pilgrimage trade already is. I personally suspect that the Karbala attacks of last Saturday, which killed 19 and wounded dozens, were carried out by Sunni Arab nationalists rather than by Shiites. But it certainly is the case that if the Iraqi Shiites ever did turn against the coalition, they have an extensive source of support and patronage just across the border.

As for population, before the war Karbala was a city of about 300,000, and it is not plausible that has doubled to 600,000, with half being Iranians. But some tens of thousands of Iranian pilgrims (some stay for months) is plausible.

"MR. SENOR: Yes?

Q James Hider from The Times. I was down in Karbala after the bombings, and the place is full of Iranian pilgrims. And the police down there say the Iranians don't have visas, they're all illegal pilgrims. They were saying there's actually probably more Iranians there than Iraqis. I was wondering how you expect to stop attacks of this nature if anybody can just wander across the Iranian border -- in the thousands, in fact.

MR. SENOR: We are working -- I can't speak to the specific numbers of Iranians down in Karbala, but I can speak more broadly. We are committed to building up a modern, effective Iraqi security infrastructure that, when we are finished, will number in the range of about approximately 220,000 Iraqi security personnel, which will include a robust border police and customs personnel team.

In the supplemental funds that the U.S. Congress recently appropriated, for security alone, there is over $3 billion dedicated toward training and equipping and arming this very advanced and modern Iraqi security personnel. And we think this will be -- help a great deal in securing these areas of the country where you cite the sorts of problems that you have referenced.

Q But the borders do appear to be completely open at the moment.

MR. SENOR: Well, I think it's a topographical fact of life that these are very porous borders. Iraq has very porous borders. It's an issue we have to contend with. But like I said, by ramping the Iraqi security personnel, ramping up the numbers, giving them effective training, giving them the tools they need, and certainly, in the short term, working alongside coalition forces, we believe we can address the security problems that are here."

Firefight with Ansar al-Islam in Mosul kills 3

US troops in Mosul fought with the Ansar al-Islam terrorist group in Mosul on Sunday, killing 3 and capturing several other members, according to US military spokesmen. Ansar al-Islam had operated in the American-policed no-fly zone of northern Iraq, and is alleged to have ties to al-Qaeda. The US destroyed the small base maintained by the group when it took northern Iraq.

Corruption Concerns Delay Pentagon Reconstruction Projects in Iraq

The Boston Globe reports that the Pentagon has canceled the process of giving out bids to reconstruct Iraq until February 1, out of concern for pervasive corruption. It is being alleged that a small group of mercantile clans is manipulating the bidding process through dummy companies, hiding their continued domination of the economy. The Coalition Provisional Authory of Paul Bremer had been counting on the influx of reconstruction monies to win hearts and minds and begin establishing better security in Iraq. This postponement is another obstacle to the smooth transfer of power on June 30 (see the Laith Kubba interview below).

Barzani: Kurdish Rights must be in Iraq Basic Law; Kubba: Washington rejects Loose Federalism

The two most prominent Kurdish leaders are making a full court press for an Iraqi Kurdistan to be enshrined in law before the American civil administration decamps on July 1. Jalal Talabani, head of the Kurdistan Patriotic Union claimed during a meeting with the British special representative in Iraq, Jeremy Greenstock "the right of the Kurdish people to have a region that encompasses all their areas in the framework of a democratic, parliamentary and federal Iraq." (al-Hayat). There have been recent moves toward a united government in Iraqi Kurdistan.

Massoud Barzani, head of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, has called for a revision of the November 15, 2003, accord between the Interim Governing Council and the United States, saying, "The November 15 accord must be revised and 'Kurdish rights' within an Iraqi federation must be mentioned."

Meanwhile, in the London daily ash-Sharq al-Awsat, Ma`d Fayyad interviews Laith Kubba, head of the Iraqi National Grouping in Washington DC. (Kubba, a Shiite, worked for much of the past decade with the Khoei Foundation in London). Kubba maintained that National Security Advisor Condi Rice is working hard to ensure a transition to a sovereign Iraqi government on June 30. Kubba said while on a trip to London that the first obstacle to this transition is that Washington is reluctant to grant the Kurds the kind of loose federal system they desire, with a large super-province of an ethnic sort. (This statement implies that Washington wants to retain the existing provincial boundaries and to have a strong central government over them.) Kubba said that Barzani's strategy is to insist that guarantees be given now for loose federalism with a consolidated Kurdish canton, so that the issue is settled before the constitution is written in 2005 and so as to ensure that it is not revisited or revoked. He also said that the members of the Interim Governing Council are still lobbying to have their body retained as a kind of senate even after the new transitional legislature is elected, and that Washington is studying the idea.

Barzani recently penned a call for what looks to me like a Switzerland-style loose federalism in Iraq, on virtually a canton basis, with a consolidated Kurdistan forming one of the "cantons." This step would involve abolishing three or four existing Iraqi provinces and merging them into a single Kurdistan. The article appeared in Ta'akhi on 21 December. I excerpt below what I think are the key paragraphs.

Barzani said, "The Kurdish issue is not an issue of citizenship to be settled in a democratic atmosphere by representatives of a side or on its behalf. The issue of the Kurds is a political and national issue. After the World War I, their homeland, Kurdistan, was divided against their will between some states. The part which is now called "Iraqi Kurdistan" was, consequently, attached to Iraq. Since then, the successive governments in Baghdad tried to annihilate the Kurds, using the most horrific and savage means . . .
after obtaining reassurances that they [US] would not abandon us in the middle of the road, as had happened in the past, the Kurdistan Democratic Party participated, confidently, in the liberation of Iraq. We offered victims and shed blood to achieve the objective. I would say proudly that the governorates of Mosul and Kirkuk were liberated mainly by the peshmargas [militias] of Kurdistan.

There was a clear and frank agreement on the major outlines regarding the future of Iraq. Therefore, any side, which aims at uniting Iraq, should abide by these outlines of principles, and should safeguard the particular nature of the Kurdistan Region, as territory, a nation, and a people . . . The existing [self-rule] situation of the Kurds is their legitimate rights and it is based on the right to self-determination, which is part of the international law. After 12 years of self-rule, without the control of the Baghdad government, the Kurds will not accept less than their existing situation . . .

Those who are interested in the issue of a united Iraq, should know very well that it would be difficult for them to convince the Kurdish people after all these tragedies, ordeals and displacement policies to remain deprived from their rights in Iraq. This makes it essential that the brother Arabs respect the Kurdish decision and would not be hesitant regarding [the fulfilment of] any right of the Kurdish rights in Iraq. By this I mean that there are now some Iraqi and foreign sides that, to some extent, point to the federalism of governorates [provinces], which is rejected by the Kurds, because the Kurdish people have not been struggling throughout history for separating the Kurdish governorates from each other . . .

The federalism which the Kurdish people demand, and which the Kurdistan parliament endorsed [in 1992], is a political federalism in its geographic and national meanings, where the Kurds would have the right to run their affairs, practise their authority and assume their responsibilities, and guarantee all the rights of the Turkoman and Chaldo-Assyrian brothers, as well as religious freedom . . . If the Kurds claim these areas, particularly Kirkuk, it is not because it is an oil-rich city as some sides claim, but because these towns and townships are an important part of Kurdish history . . . To sum up, we are extremely attached to preserving the Kurdish-Arab brotherhood and would be satisfied to keep the common values between them as a principle objective. The future situation of Iraq necessitates the participation of Kurds and Arabs in it in the form of a voluntary coexistence between them . . ."

I see big problems ahead. Washington, according to Kubba, will tell the Kurds "no." There have already been riots in Kirkuk by Arabs and Turkmen against the Barzani proposal, and more ethnic violence could follow. The Turkish government has likewise weighed in against the plan (probably one reason that Washington also opposes it). The Shiite al-Da`wa Party stands for a strong central government.

The question is whether the Kurds will take "no" for an answer. Barzani's reference to the role of the Peshmerga or Kurdish militias in liberating northern Iraq can also be read as a veiled threat to the IGC. The Kurdish areas have been relatively quiet militarily. If Washington quashes the hopes for a new sort of Iraqi Kurdistan, they may get more dangerous quickly.

al-Rubaie: No Sunni-Shiite Conflict; need for National Reconciliation

In Nasiriyah, Interim Governing Council member Muwaffaq al-Rubaie affirmed that there are no disputes between Shiites and Sunnis. He said that these two branches of Islam had suffered intellectual and political persecution during the former regime, and they are both now standing in a single row, serving Islamic and humane principles and Iraq itself. He added, "We dwell under the tent of Islam, whereby is made concrete cooperation and solidarity among the children of the people and all its religions and political currents, so that we can make it through the current phase that Iraq is experiencing." He said that there must be rapid movement toward a formula for a basic law, which would safeguard the democratic principle guaranteeing to Iraqis the right to vote, clarifying that all Iraqi citizens have the opportunity to serve their country, and pointing out that the IGC is now studying how to draft a formula and instruments whereby for a special decree on national reconciliation that would establish tolerance for all those who had been led astray, whether civilians or military, and giving all the opportunity to return to the national ranks. (al-Hayat).

This passage suggests a kind of pan-Islamic unity against the ghost of Saddam, as well as an appeal to Sunni Arabs with a Baath background. He seems to say that many of them will be allowed to reenter civil society without suffering from the taint of past membership in the party. He thus was seeking to mollify two major groups of Sunni Arabs, the fundamentalists who felt persecuted by the Baath, and the lower ranks of the former Baathist, who were mainly secular Sunnis.

Al-Rubaie shows himself in this passage willing to draw the line in debaathification rather higher than someone like Ahmad Chalabi, who seems to want all former party members ostracized.

Meanwhile, the San Francisco Chronicle recently published a smart article on the Iraqi Hizbullah and questions about the future of this formerly violent militia of the Marsh Arabs, which had allied with hard liners in Iran. Its current leader claims to side instead with the secularists in Iran!

2 US troops killed, 8 Wounded; Interpreter Killed, 8 Iraqi troops wounded

Michelle Faul of AP reports that guerrillas detonated a roadside bomb at the Karada shopping district in Baghdad, killing one US soldier; wounding 5 other US troops; killing two Iraqi children; and wounding an Iraqi interpreter and 8 members of the Iraqi civil defense corps. US Army Sgt. Patrick Compton said, "It was a bad one. It's a real densely populated area of town."

In Fallujah, guerrillas set off another roadside bomb, killing one US soldier and wounding three others as their convoy passed by.

212 US troops have been killed in action since May 1.

Another Bulgarian soldier died Sunday of wounds received in the bombings on Saturday that killed 4 of his compatriots. (al-Hayat).

Alawi: Saddam will be Tried in Secret; Withdrawal Timeline for US Troops to be Negotiated

Saddam's trial is unlikely to be public, according to Iyad Alawi, member of the Interim Governing Council and head of the Iraqi National Accord (mainly ex-Baathist officers who cooperated in 1990s CIA plots against Saddam). Alawi made the remarks in an interview with the London-based al-Hayat newspaper. He said there would probably be no public trial because "it is possible that he will mention names of states or persons to whom he gave money . . ." Asked if Saddam had admitted to smuggling money abroad, Alawi replied, "He has begun to admit it. He has confessed to important things." [Saddam is thought to have squirreled $30 bn. or more away in secret accounts overseas.]

Alawi said of the trial of Saddam, "Naturally, it will be an Iraqi trial, before Iraqi judges. You published in al-Hayat that even 3 weeks before his capture, I had completed gathering evidence and confessions from Iraqi intelligence officers, and had forwarded that information to the judge in charge of the official inquiry in Iraq . . ." [including cases against persons who tried to kill Alawi himself] . . . "Now there is a file for his trial in Iraq for the crimes that he committed against the Iraqi people, in an Iraqi court, with Iraqi judges. If other countries have cases against him, they can lodge charges after the Iraqi trial has finished. But I expect the judgment to be clear, in the framework of the Iraqi criminal statutes, that is, he will be executed."

On the possibility of a public trial for Saddam: "I don't think so. That subject has not been discussed so far. I don't believe so. It will be like any other trial for any other criminal, except that Saddam's crimes have been bewildering, horrifying, and extensive. There is another thing, the possibility that he will mention the names of states and the names of persons to whom he has given bribes and wealth. We don't want him to mention all that on television. There are lots of existing documents, and we don't want to worsen Iraq's relations with others. And we don't want such matters to be interpreted in irrational or subjective ways." He said that since other countries, such as Kuwait or Lebanon, might file charges against Saddam, the issues were complex. But the important thing, he said, was that Saddam would be tried in Iraqi courts with full legitimacy and legality.

Alawi, who also serves as coordinator of the Supreme Security Committee on the Interim Governing Council (which oversees Iraqi security and intelligence apparatuses), also spoke of the results of his visit to Washington, DC, three weeks ago. "I want to announce via al-Hayat that important negotiations will be conducted over the next three months to nail down the position of the American forces and the forces of the Coalition, and to specify a timeline for their withdrawal."

During his present visit to Lebanon, Alawi told Lebanese journalists that he opposes the call by Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani for general elections, saying "elections right now are impossible." On the role of civil administrator Paul Bremer after the return of sovereignty to Iraq on July 1: "He will go home." He said that the bombings in Iraq are "terrorism, not a resistance." He denied that he had to get permission from the Americans to meet with the Syrians. "We go to Syria by virtue of a historic relationship with it, and do not speak in the name of America." He said that the situation with regard to the Syrian border with Iraq has improved continuously [i.e. that there are fewer guerrillas sneaking into Iraq by that route].

I found Alawi's remarks chilling. The case against Saddam appears likely to proceed as a closed Star Chamber. Alawi, among those in charge of crafting the case, is a plaintiff himself and seemed to imply that he might be involved in a personal injury suit against the former regime! And, Alawi seems to be trying to hold the information that might come out in the trial over the heads of the Jordanian and other regional governments, as a kind of blackmail. Well, at least Rummy won't have to worry about Saddam going on and on about their close friendship back in the day, on Arab satellite television. Ooops. That's probably one reason the Bush administration announced with such alacrity that Saddam would be tried in Iraq.

MI6 Manipulated British Media

Former National Security advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski called on Sunday (CNN) for an investigation into how the US was manipulated into the Iraq war. Speaking of the forged Niger documents alleging Iraq uranium purchases, he said that the problem was not only that the US lacked good human intelligence, but that it had been actively manipulated by persons providing to it false intelligence.

The Iraqi political exiles like Ahmad Chalabi and Iyad Alawi are one source of faulty intelligence on Iraqi capabilities. The Likud in Israel is another.

But clearly, rogue elements in British intelligence played a key part, as well. Operation Rockingham within British military intelligence was revealed last summer. Similar to Doug Feith's Office of Special Plans, it cherry-picked intelligence on Iraq to exaggerate the weapons-of-mass destruction and terrorism threats that the Baath regime posed to the West. Now it transpires that not only were there analysts in MI6 who were skewing intelligence, but they waged a campaign of plants in the press to influence British public opinion in favor of going to war against Iraq, from the late 1990s.

It was always odd that public opinion polls on the war in the US and the UK looked so radically different from those in all other industrial democracies. If MI6 was planting stories in the British press, then it was planting stories in the American press as well, if only because the one has close connections to the other. If they actually planted stories in the US press (not something being alleged), they surely broke some sort of US law?

I have to say that I just don't know enough about the British military and intelligence establishment to form a context for Operation Rockingham and for the press manipulation. Are these left-over Thatcherites yearning to reverse the decline of the UK as an imperial power? What exactly do they want, and what do they have to gain?

What does seem clear is that because of the Special Relationship, we in the US have been the victims of this press manipulation, too.

(More) Hurdles for Iraqi Democracy

The Neocon idea that a post-war, US-dominated Iraq would become a beacon of democracy faces more and more hurdles. The increasingly strident and increasingly controversial Kurdish demand for a consolidated Kurdish super-province with relative autonomy from Baghdad could well derail the new Iraq. The demand is not acceptable to Turkmen and Arabs in the north, who are numerous enough to make trouble about it. The Kurds themselves have armed paramilitaries.

Then, it seems likely that the Bush administration is now going to try to dump civil administration of the country in the laps of a few pro-American strongmen. Iyad Alawi, quoted above, appears to be one of them. It worries me that he is always talking about the need for a new Iraqi secret police (mukhabarat). Alawi is the leader of a group of ex-Baathists sponsored by the CIA.

Then, in the Informed Comment quote of the day, Interim Governing Council member Muwaffaq al-Rubaie criticized the "American" way of doing things.
In the Los Angeles Times: On the desirability of the Interim Governing Council members serving in the new transitional government to be elected May 31, Rubaie said: "They should play a pivotal role in the next leadership. They have expertise and experience. You need continuity. We can't have this idiotic American system of dumping everyone from their positions when a new president wins election."
Well, so much for the prospects for democracy in Iraq. Al-Rubaie doesn't even understand the principle of peaceful change of personnel from one administration to the next. And he is by no means the least democratically minded member of the IGC!

Someone should tell Muwaffaq that in the US, politicians often lose their jobs even within a single administration, as now seems likely to happen to the Neoconservatives in the Bush administration, according to Blogger Billmon.

And, the IGC already has substantial problems with graft. The wireless telecom contracts it gave out are under investigation for graft by the Pentagon. Agence France Presse reports that interim trade minister Ali Allawi says as much as $30 mn. may have been embezzled from payments on a contract for wooden doors.

Shiite Issues in the News

Thousands of Shiites gathered in Najaf to mourn the 1999 assassination of Ayatollah Muhammad Sadiq al-Sadr and other Shiite figures martyred by Saddam. The ayatollah's followers tend to be puritanical and anti-American, but this gathering appears to have been peaceful and relatively devoid of politics. The ayatollah's son, Muqtada al-Sadr, 30, preached on the event on Saturday but did not attend on Sunday because of security concerns. (Sadiq al-Sadr was actually killed in February, but the commemoration appears to be according to the Muslim lunar calendar, which slips back 11 days each year on the solar calendar).

Borzou Daragahi explores the possibility that the capture of Saddam Hussein laid the groundwork for better diplomatic relations betwen Iran and Iraq. (TIA: I'm quoted).

The op-ed by my wife Shahin Cole and myself that appeared in the Los Angeles Times on Sunday Dec. 28, entitled "Shiites are Emerging from Fear," is available with registration at http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/sunday/?track=mainnav-sundayopinion

Ken MacLeod's Blog and Iraq

As many of you know, I'm an old time science fiction fan, having grown up on Asimov, Heinlein, Herbert, Delaney, Moorcock and the other greats. (I don't care about divisions between the old Campbell stable and the New Wave of the late 1960s; I read it all). I subscribe to Locus and Science Fiction Chronicle and continue to read in the field, though I can't read as much for pleasure as I would like, and I do also try to read other sorts of novels. One of the great delights for me is when a new author comes along who does innovative things with the genre. It is rarer than one might hope. A lot of science fiction writers just use the scientific element as a McGuffin, to make the plot go forward. I call this the "Michael Crichton syndrome." I can no longer make it all the way through most such books. But then there are imaginative writers like William Gibson, who have brought so much new energy and ideas to the field.

Another writer whom I've been reading is Ken MacLeod of Scotland, who injects debates and ideas rooted in the European Left into his work. It is sort of like Eric Hobsbawm meets Arthur C. Clarke, with the best of both. It is not a completely novel phenomenon. After all, H.G. Wells was a socialist. But MacLeod's galaxy of social ideas plays out in fascinating ways as space opera. The Stone Canal, e.g., pits leftist ideas against Libertarian ones, with characters finding themselves imprisoned in robot bodies as a new sort of slave.

As one might expect, MacLeod is very interested in current affairs and the Iraq situation, and has started blogging on British politics in this regard. Imagine my surprise to find his site driving traffic to mine! He has kindly put a link in to Informed Comment. That was my second best Christmas present this year!

For US readers, MacLeod's books can be ordered from Amazon.com. I recommend them warmly.

10 US soldiers Wounded, 6 other Coalition Troops Killed, 36 wounded;
Governor of Karbala Hospitalized with 80 other wounded Civilians

Guerillas launched four massive car bombings on Saturday in the Shiite holy city of Karbala. Although Western news reports said that Karbala has been relatively quiet, in fact Coalition troops had on numerous occasionas come under fire there, as reported in the Arabic press, but had suffered few casualties until now. The guerrillas killed 4 Bulgarians and two Thai troops. Another 19 Bulgarian troops were wounded, 4 seriously. Altogether, some 36 other Coalition troops were wounded in the attacks, including 5 Americans. Another 12 Iraqis were killed, many of them police, and over 80 (some reports gave over 120) wounded. The wounded included the US-appointed governor of Karbala province, Akram al-Yasiri, and five members of the provincial council. (-al-Hayat) The attacks were likely launched by Sunni Arab nationalists from outside the Shiite city. That they could coordinate such a powerful set of attacks in a southern city suggests that they are still stronger and more organized than the US realized.

In Baghdad on Saturday, 5 US troops were wounded in the Rasafa quarter when guerrillas blew up roadside bombs as their convoys passed. In Mosul, US troops came under fire and fought back, destroying a car and killing its 4 passengers. The US said the passengers had been among the attackers. Near Kirkuk two Iraqi guerrillas accidentally blew themselves up while preparing a roadside bomb for use at the oil town of Beiji.

On Friday, two US troops died in bombings, one in Baquba and the other in Balad just north of Baghdad.

Bam Earthquake Kills 20,000

The enormity of 20,000 persons being suddenly wiped out by an earthquake is just hard for me to fathom. There is an old custom in the Middle East and South Asia of seeing such incidents as a sign of God's displeasure. That way of thinking strikes me as sick (even though Gandhi, Abdul Baha and other very moral men adopted it).

In fact, the earthquake was caused by the Indian subcontinent, which detached itself from Africa millions of years ago, careened into Asia and threw up the Himalayas (relatively young mountains), and is still pressing up against Eurasia. Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Northern India are seismically active because of this major set of faults.

It had nothing to do with God's moral judgment on Bamians. Indeed, this sort of incident seems to me to prove that the universe has not been set up for human beings particularly. If they get in the way of the laws of nature, and they do nothing to protect themselves, they get crushed. The earthquake killed so many people because provincial Iranian towns are built of adobe and lack any sort of eathquake proofing. When earthquakes hit during the day, they aren't so bad. But this one hit at 5 am, collapsing buildings onto sleeping families.

The Iranian regime is already unpopular, and a disaster of this magnitude could become political. The government will be judged by how quickly and how well it does relief work for the survivors (the desert is cold at night). It may also be blamed for not having pushed earthquake-proofing of buildings.

Another disaster is that the quake destroyed the famous citadel of Bam, the more prominent features of which were built by Nadir Shah in the 18th century, and which was a big tourist attraction and potential future source of wealth. It probably can't be rebuilt, and any way UNESCO discourages that sort of phony restoration for touristic purposes.

The US and Iran have had bad political relations for decades now, and there is much demonizing of Iranians in America. This moment is auspicious for Americans to show generosity to the Iranian people. The survivors need our help, even if we can only give a little each. For things like this I personally give to the Red Cross/ Red Crescent.

Bremer to Blair: No Weapons Labs

The cover story of the Bush administration about the reasons for the Iraq war has become so full of holes that it is even confusing major officials and allies now. The Bushies started out saying that the war was about Iraq's weapons of mass destruction. When it turned out that Iraq had virtually no such weapons, and hardly any programs, they started muttering darkly about Saddam's mass graves and killing fields (even though past Republican administrations were in various ways complicit in all that).

In his Christmas message to the UK troops, PM Tony Blair said that the Iraq Survey Group had found "massive evidence of a huge system of clandestine laboratories."

On ITV1's Jonathan Dimbleby program, Bremer was asked about the quote but not told the source. Bremer replied, "I don't know where those words come from but that is not what (ISG chief) David Kay has said. I have read his reports so I don't know who said that. It sounds like a bit of a red herring to me. It sounds like someone who doesn't agree with the policy sets up a red herring then knocks it down."

Bremer later found out the statement he contradicted was Blair's, and he backtracked, saying "There is actually a lot of evidence that had been made public . . . clear evidence of biological and chemical programs." He added "Weapons of mass destruction or no weapons of mass destruction, it's important to step back a little bit here, to see what we have done historically."

It seems clear that Bremer knew no 'huge system of clandestine laboratories' had still been active in 2002, and he smelled a trap. If someone was saying such a thing, which was clearly false, then probably it was an enemy of the Bush administration trying to set up a trap that would be sprung later. He hadn't counted on Tony's earnest hyperbole (though the incident makes it clear that Tony is now doing Bush more harm than good by sticking with the cover story long after US officials had ceased trying to defend it.) When Bremer realized that he had been tricked by Fleet Street into calling Tony Blair a liar, he quickly backed down and tried to give the PM some cover. Well, there used to be laboratories back in the 1980s (we should know, we authorized US companies to supply them) . . .

What in the world Bremer meant by "Weapons of mass destruction or no weapons of mass destruction, it's important to step back a little bit here, to see what we have done historically." is obscure to me. But presumably it is yet another, somewhat maladroit attempt to liken intervention in Iraq to World War II.

Al-Hakim Calls for UN Involvement

In a news conference in Baghdad, Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, temporary president of the Interim Governing Council, said that when in Europe he had lobbied heads of state for more United Nations involvement in the transfer of sovereignty to an Iraqi government this summer. He said he pressed this request on France, the UK and Russia, all permanent members of the United Nations Security Council. He asked them "to move in order to ensure an important and fundamental role for the United Nations in Iraq." He said all the members of the IGC agree on the desirability of this step.

Meanwhile, Syrian Foreign Minister Farouq Sharaa advised the Iraqis "not to draft a constitution under occupation," because it would be "a time bomb." He warned of "the dangers of the partition of Iraq," saying that for the country to break up "would not be beneficial to the countries of the region, especially the neighbors."

The Gang that Couldn't Shoot Straight

Although Baghdad was shaken by a series of six rocket attacks on Thursday, the guerrillas managed to do very little damage. They targeted the HQ of the Coalition Provisional Authority, two major hotels favored by Western journalist, and the German, Iranian and Turkish embassies. Although the explosions appear to have caused no casualties, one can only imagine that a coordinated set of attacks like this must have produced a psychological effect in the capital. I can't imagine why they targeted the German embassy, either, though I suppose it was a warning that Germany should not help the new transitional government to be established this summer rebuild Iraq. The only group that would want to send such a message, it seems to me, is Baathists.

The guerrillas still can blow up passing vehicles. A US soldier was killed by a roadside bomb in Baghdad on Wednesday.

Sunni Religious Groups form Council

The NYT is reporting that Sunni Arab religious groupings met on Thursday and are seeking to establish a Sunni Arab leadership that could match that of the Kurds and the Shiites. The Sunni religious groups involved included Sufis, Salafis, and the Muslim Brotherhood.

I'm not sure such a grouping has much in the way of staying power. Salafis are fundamentalists (sometimes inaccurately refered to as "Wahhabis" by the Western press and by Iraqi Shiites) who despise mystical Sufism (which is about saints and shrines and visions). The Muslim Brotherhood has never been good about sharing power, and in Iraq is tiny. And, many Sunni Arabs are nationalists and not particularly religious. If they are religious, they are not necessarily Salafis, Sufis or Muslim Brotherhood. This group seems to me therefore to represent only a narrow sliver of the Sunni Arabs and to be unlikely to avoid squabbling among themselves very long.

Sistani Stands Ground on Demand for General Elections

AFP reports that six members of the Interim Governing Council met with Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani in Najaf on Thursday to discuss his demand that general elections be held this spring. The IGC agreed with US civil administrator Paul Bremer on November 15 that caucus-type elections, by hand- picked pro-American local councils, would be held by the end of May. Sistani objected that such an election would not adequately reflect the will of the Iraqi people, and insists on one-person, one-vote general elections. He also wanted an up-front guarantee that the Iraqi legislature would not pass laws at variance with Islam. The IGC has ever since been negotiating with him in an attempt to find a compromise. AFP said, ' "Despite obstacles that have been raised, he would only renounce elections if a UN technical team reaches the conclusion that it is impossible to hold them and proposes another solution that would guarantee a better representation of the Iraqi people," Sistani's spokesman said. ' Sistani therefore stood his ground about the need for general elections.

Sistani's refusal to budge poses a severe problem for the US, which wants now to move quickly to an "Afghanistan" model, hold an American-invented Iraqi "Loya Jirga" or council of hand-picked notables, "elect" a transitional government, and turn over sovereignty to it, as they did to Karzai in Afghanistan. This plan appears to derive from despair that the US will actually be able to administer Iraq for very much longer, given Iraqi sullenness about the occupation, and from a desire of the Bush administration to bring home the reporters, if not the troops, well before the November 2004 elections. Karl Rove probably figures that the US press simply won't cover Iraq as intensively if the US isn't running it, just as they don't cover Afghanistan any more now that Karzai is in charge (even though the US has 10,000 troops in harm's way in Afghanistan). US journalism is dedicated to the principle that the American public doesn't want to read about anything that is in the least bit distant, foreign, or hard to understand. The existence of the Coalition Provisional Authority creates the illusion that Iraq is part of the US beat for journalists; renaming it "the US embassy in Iraq," Bush hopes, will dissolve that illusion. Sistani is therefore standing in the way of a smooth political progression that has enormous import for the next US election.

Some Mujahidin-i Khalq Terrorists to be Tried in Iraq

The Mujahidin-i Khalq terrorist organization, which has committed mass murder in Iran, was given refuge in Iraq by Saddam Hussein, who used the group's guerrillas to harass Iran. Iraqis claim that at key points the MKO helped Saddam stay in power by military action. The Coalition Provisional Authority has decided to deport MKO members for Iraq to "three countries," but will not say to which. But AFP reports that Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, head of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq and December's president of the Interim Governing Council has said that some MKO members guilty of terrorism will be tried in Iraq. Al-Hakim was given refuge in Tehran from Saddam in the early 1980s and was close to the hard line ayatollahs in Tehran, who view the Mujahidin-i Khalq rather as the US views al-Qaeda. Al-Hakim also reiterated that the new Iraqi government would not deal with Israel (an Arab League stance). Although the State Department has long listed the MKO on its list of terrorist organizations, the guerrilla group has been very successful in lobbying the US congress and has been supported by powerful Neoconservatives in the Defense Department (raising questions as to whether the MKO has an Israeli connection).

One of the more prominent supporters of this terrorist organization allied to Saddam Hussein is Daniel Pipes, head of the so-called "Middle East Forum" (it isn't a forum, it is just a way for his sugar daddies to fund Pipes); and he is also a supporter of the extremist Israeli settler movement on the West Bank and in Gaza. In one of a long series of lapses of judgment, President Bush appointed this supporter of Middle East terrorist organizations to the US Institute for Peace! Pipes also heads the so-called "Campus Watch," which engages in sleazy McCarthyite tactics, apparently as a cover for Pipes's own warm embrace of terrorist organizations like the MKO and the Israeli settler extremists.

The Future of the Iraqi Military

The International Crisis Group has issued a report on the situation of the Iraqi military, and made some important recommendations to the US.

"RECOMMENDATIONS
To the United States Government and the Coalition Authorities:

1. Take immediate steps to increase the attractiveness of service with the New Iraqi Army (NIA), such as by increasing pay and instituting social benefits, including pensions and health insurance, for soldiers and officers, and extending these benefits to their families.

2. Authorise the creation of a defence ministry in the interim Iraqi cabinet charged in particular with overseeing the demobilisation and reintegration of military personnel and the establishment of the new armed forces.

3. Limit reliance on intermediary institutions such as political parties, provincial governors or tribal notables for the recruitment of soldiers and turn instead to a transparent method of direct enlistment of individual volunteers.

4. Establish professional review boards to evaluate applications by officers of the former Iraqi Army for positions in the NIA, including those with senior rank, and to weed out and ban officers who committed crimes during their service in the old army.

5. Curtail the use of private security firms by limiting as much as possible the sub-contracting of security responsibilities, in particular by phasing out the use of contractors for training the NIA, turning instead to military forces of Coalition members and, if possible, NATO.

6. Reverse any decision to incorporate Iraqi militias in the security structure and work instead on a plan for the eventual demobilisation and reintegration of militia members as part of the return of full sovereignty to Iraq.

7. Do not reduce training cycles for members of the NIA."

Abdul Aziz al-Hakim: Compensate Iran

' Jordanian Press Highlights 25, 26 Dec 03
Jordan -- FBIS Report in Arabic 26 Dec 03
FBIS REPORT
Friday, December 26, 2003

Amman Al-Ra'y in Arabic on 25 Dec carries a 400-word article on page 18 and 11 by Dr Bassam al-Umush criticizing Iraq's Abd-al-Aziz al-Hakim's statements that Iraq should compensate Iran for its losses. Article says: "This statement by Al-Hakim is not acceptable, particularly that he spoke about Iran that gave him refuge in the past for sectarian considerations." '

Merry Christmas: Some Iraq Christianity Links

In honor of Christmas, I include some links about Iraq’s Christians.

For the history of Iraqi Christianity click here. Iraqis believe Christianity was brought to what is now Iraq, an Aramaic-speaking area, around 35 AD by Thomas the doubting apostle (some say Peter also preached in Mesopotamia). The religions of Iraqis at that time included Babylonian-style polytheism and star worship (including astrology), Zoroastrianism from Iran, Greek Gnosticism and Judaism. In the theological disputes that developed from the 400s, most Iraqi Christians are believed by historians to have favored the Nestorian branch of Christianity, founded by Nestorius (d. 451). By the time of the Muslim Arab conquest of Iraq in the 600s AD, what is now Iraq had a significant Christian population. Over time most Iraqis gradually converted to Islam and adopted Arabic, and contrary to popular Western belief, the conversion was for the most part peaceful. From the 1400s some Iraqi Nestorians accepted overtures from Rome and acknowledged the pope, becoming Catholics. They were allowed to keep their Aramaic liturgy. These Catholic “Uniate” Iraqis became known as Chaldeans, and had their own patriarch. Over time they became the majority (now 80%). Those who remained outside Catholicism may not be exactly identified as Nestorians any more by this period, but had historical roots in that branch of Christianity, and were called Assyrians. In recent decades there has been a push to unify the Chaldeans and the Assyrians. Iraqi Christians probably amount to between 500,000 and 800,000 individuals, about 2 or 3 percent of Iraqis.

Iraqi Bishop Praises Coalition

Iraqi Christians not in Festive Mood


New Chaldean Patriarch Calls Iraqis to Unity