Zogby Polling has permitted the reprinting of the below. What I take away from it is that in a four-way race Nader would hurt Clinton more than he would hurt Obama, and Barr could be deadly for McCain. Reuters/Zogby find that Obama is starting to do better with the Democratic base than Clinton, and he does very well among middle-aged people as well as youth.
‘Released: May 21, 2008
Reuters/Zogby Poll: Obama Opens Double-digit Lead Over McCain in National Test
Third-party candidates Nader and Barr show signs of strength in key demographic groups
UTICA, New York – Democrat Barack Obama has sprinted out to a 10-point lead over Republican John McCain in a four-way presidential contest including Libertarian Bob Barr and Liberal Ralph Nader, the latest Reuters/Zogby telephone poll of likely voters nationwide shows.
Obama does well among his Democratic base, winning 79% support – an indication that the party faithful may be coming together behind his campaign as a bruising nomination campaign nears the end. He also does well among non-aligned voters, as independents favor him over McCain by a 48% to 32% margin.
Data from this poll is available here
The live-operator telephone survey was conducted May 15-18, 2008, and included 1,076 likely voters nationwide. The poll carries a margin of error of +/- 3.0 percentage points.
Obama leads in the East, the West, and in the South, while the two are essentially tied in the central part of the country, including the Midwest and the Great Lakes region, the poll shows. He leads among all voters under age 65 – including by huge percentages among those voters under age 30 – but trails McCain among those older voters by a 45% to 34% margin. Interestingly, Obama holds a 13-point edge among those voters age 50 to 64.
The survey hints that Libertarian Bob Barr could do some serious damage to McCain by stealing support among the very conservative and libertarian voters. Barr wins 10% support among those self-described “very conservative” voters, and wins 22% among philosophical (not necessarily “capital L”) libertarians. As McCain continues to angle for moderate support on the campaign trail, Barr could create havoc for him among McCain’s political base.
2008 General Election Match-ups
John McCain
37%
Barack Obama
47%
Ralph Nader
4%
Bob Barr
3%
Not sure/Other
10%
There is less evidence that Ralph Nader would cause as much trouble for Obama, but he still wins persistent support, including 6% support among mainline liberals and 3% support among progressives.
Ten percent said they were undecided or favored another candidate in a prospective contest featuring Obama and McCain.
2008 General Election Match-ups
John McCain
40%
Hillary Clinton
41%
Ralph Nader
4%
Bob Barr
3%
Not sure/Other
12%
McCain and Democrat Hillary Clinton, who lags behind Obama in the race for the Democratic Party presidential nomination, are essentially tied in the latest Reuters/Zogby polling. Clinton won 41% support compared to 40% backing for McCain.
Clinton wins less support from her Democratic base than does Obama when paired against McCain – 74% of Democrats said they would vote for her, while 8% would vote for McCain, 4% support Nader, and 13% of Dems were either undecided or favoring someone else.
McCain wins 77% of the GOP base in this latest polling against Clinton, while she wins 8% of the Republican vote.
Clinton leads McCain by a 40% to 33% margin among independents, while Nader wins 7% support and Barr wins 4% among non-aligned voters, and 16% were uncertain about whom to support in the prospective match-up.
Among progressives, Clinton wins just 60% support against McCain, hampered by Nader, who wins 13% backing from the most liberal of voters. At the other end of the philosophical scale, Libertarian Bob Barr wins 10% support to McCain’s 76% backing among the “very conservative,” while Barr and McCain tie at 24% among libertarian-minded voters in a match-up including Clinton.
Against McCain, Clinton wins just 70% support from African Americans – fully 25% less than Obama wins in that Demographic. And McCain leads her among whites by a 47% to 36% margin. Among women, Clinton leads McCain, 46% to 38%. Among men, McCain holds a 41% to 37% lead over Clinton.
Obama Builds Lead Over Clinton in National Contest
As he moves ever closer to wrapping up the Democratic Party presidential nomination, Obama is also opening up a big lead over Clinton among Democrats nationwide. In a national preference test, he leads her by a 59% to 33% margin, the latest Reuters/Zogby poll shows.
He completely dominates among those voters under age 35, winning more than 80% support, but also leads among all voters under age 70, where she holds a solid advantage. Obama also now leads among almost all likely Democratic voters according to political philosophy – moderates, mainline liberals, and progressives. Clinton leads only among conservative Democrats.
Obama also leads Clinton among both Catholics and Protestants, and among those who claim no religious affiliation.
For a detailed methodological statement on this survey, please visit [this link].
(5/21/2008)
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