Ann Arbor (Informed Comment) – The energy consultancy Ember reports that the growth in solar production in India was 5.9% in 2023, which outstripped the growth in solar in Japan last year. Japan is the fourth-largest economy in the world, and India is the fifth.
India was the world’s fastest-growing economy last year at 7.8%, and is expected to be the world’s third largest economy by 2030, behind the US and China.
As of June 2024, India’s total installed solar capacity was 87.2 gigawatts, and it added 15 gigawatts of solar in the first half of 2024, more than ever before in absolute terms in any 6-month period. But remember that the economy is growing quickly and electricity demand is also growing, so in relative terms solar’s growth this year isn’t that impressive.
Solar accounts for 57.7% of India’s renewable electricity generation, ahead of wind and hydro.
Japan’s solar installations are now slightly behind those of India. The proportion of electricity in Japan coming from wind and solar is 12%, however, whereas in India it is only 10%. The global average is 13%. As a hilly, densely populated country, Japan at least perceives itself to lack places to put big solar farms, and so it is turning to wind energy as its major renewable investment, including offshore wind.
India invested $68 billion in clean energy in 2023, according to the International Energy Agency, an increase of 40% over the average in the teens of this century.
“Brighter than a Thousand Suns,” Digital, Dream / Dreamworld v3/ Clip2Comic, 2024.
Although the spike in solar in India last year was welcome, however, it wasn’t nearly enough. Annual investment in green energy will need to rise by 120% by 2030 if India is to meet its own climate goals, which it is not on track to do. At the moment, the investment is on track only to double, i.e. to increase by 100%.
India is still investing in fossil fuels, including the deadly coal, in a big way, and its carbon dioxide emissions were up. Fossil fuels actually rose from 76% to 77% of India’s electricity last year, going in entirely the wrong direction.
As solar power rapidly falls in price, however, it may prove difficult for coal to compete with it, especially in a sunny country like India, so that renewables may take off in an unexpected way. That development will require India’s government, however, to stop backing coal (India is kind of like a big West Virginia when it comes to coal). Given India’s vulnerability to climate change, it would be better advised to be more ambitious in its renewables goals and to back them with a more robust industrial policy.
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