( Middle East Monitor ) – Hamas launched a ground, air and naval attack on Israel, resulting in the killing of 1,200 Israelis and the capturing of two hundred and fifty hostages of Israeli military and civil personnel on 7 October, 2023. Today marks almost exactly one year since the start of the Gaza War. Resultantly, Israel, portraying itself as a victim of Hamas’s terrorist attack, despite its status as an oppressive occupying power under international law and United Nations (UN) resolutions, launched a full-scale invasion of Gaza. This has since expanded to Lebanon, and now a full war looms between Iran and Israel.
The horrors of war resulted in the killing of an estimated 43,000 Palestinians in Gaza, most of them women and children, with tens of thousands displaced. Not to mention, hundreds of thousands of innocent people in Gaza have been wounded. Additionally, Israel critically damaged vital infrastructure of the Gaza Strip, such as hospitals, schools, universities and refugee camps, under the pretext of the elimination of Hamas. However, natural observers opined that most Israeli attacks are aimed at the extermination of the Gaza population, somewhat referred to as a genocidal campaign against Palestinians, rather than knocking out Hamas.
Israeli military adventurism didn’t stop at the Gaza Strip, but expanded its operation and attacks to the West Bank, Golan Heights, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon to scale the war to a regional one. Unfortunately, despite calls for ceasefire and negotiation, Israel refused to engage in any peace talks. On the contrary, Israel has embarked on the assassination of high-profile leaders of the Axis of Resistance backed by the Iranian regime. From the killing of Ismail Haniyeh to the assassination of Hezbollah Chief Hassan Nasrallah, the message from Israel was clear: we don’t stop at Gaza, but the ultimate goal is to drag Iran into regional war to undo the Axis of Resistance and the Iranian regime itself.
International experts were divided on Israel’s actions in the region, especially given the backdrop of the upcoming US presidential election. Some experts believe that an escalation of the conflict in Gaza could potentially boost Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s domestic approval ratings while simultaneously diverting international attention from the humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip.
Others believed a regional war could undermine the Axis of Resistance, which could continually pose a threat to the existence of Israel while dragging Iran into conflict could revigorate Western political, financial and military support to Israeli campaigns in the region. Israel also has misplaced hope of regime change if the US and Iran are at war.
“Total War,” Digital, Dream / Dreamland v3, 2024
However, the strategic patience of Iran diminished when Israel crossed all the brightest red lines of Iran with the assassination of Nasrallah. On 1 October, Iran launched almost 200 ballistic missiles towards Israel, some of which were unable to be anticipated by Israel’s Iron Dome. Iran clearly stated that the country has the right to defend itself in the wake of unwanted Israeli aggression and jingoism. However, Israel is considering attacking nuclear sites or oil facilities inside Iran in retaliation for Iranian ballistic missiles. In that response, Iran also made it clear that such provoked Israeli actions would be dealt with by attacking any oil facilities in the region.
Therefore, the ongoing crisis will be the perfect recipe for regional war and beyond, which has severe consequences for the global economy. Attacks on oil facilities in the Persian Gulf and Arabian Peninsula could have severe global consequences. This region accounts for one-third of the world’s oil and gas resources, making it crucial to international energy markets. It comprises vital trade routes, including the Red Sea and Persian Gulf and strategic chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb. Any disruption in this area, particularly given Iran’s and its proxies’ influence over these critical waterways, could cause oil prices to soar. Such a scenario would likely trigger a domino effect, adversely impacting international trade, global production and supply chains worldwide.
For example, the Houthis have engaged in launching multiple missiles towards Israelis in solidarity with Palestinians. They also blocked the shipping route of Bab-el-Mandeb, causing serious disruption to trade activities of the Red Sea. Meanwhile, the Iraq-based militia, which is backed by the Iranian regime, also hinted that any direct attack on Iran would be dealt with by attacking military bases of the US in the country and beyond. Therefore, Iran possesses multiple strategic options for engaging in a confrontation with Israel.
Unfortunately, during the whole course of events, relentless support of the US has emboldened Israeli jingoism. Consequently, the Middle East is sitting at the tender box of looming regional war, which gives nothing but instability, chaos, violence and the cycle of war. Since the 7 October attacks, the US, under the US President Joe Biden administration, has provided unabated, shored-up Israeli war crimes in Gaza in the name of self-defence of Israel, by offering political, economic, military and diplomatic approval of Netanyahu’s policies. Recently, the US has approved a $20 billion military package to Israel in support of the ongoing war, which already expanded beyond the Gaza Strip. Meanwhile, other critical components of the US, such as Congress, the Pentagon, the State Department and American mainstream media, openly supported Israeli adventurism in the Middle East despite the low approval ratings of the American public for another Middle East war in which the US will actively participate.
Therefore, one can easily conclude that owing to the Jewish lobby in the US, US foreign policy has become deeply entrenched with the strategic goals of Israel in the region. Furthermore, in the presence of US bases and troops in the Middle East, which is estimated at around 40,000, Israel knows that without the full-fledged support of the US, Israel will be unable to beat Iran.
However, there is also a catch-22 situation for the US as it can’t abandon its strategic partner Israel, which consumes financial and military resources and the goodwill of the US among the international community. Presently, the US has also deeply committed to Ukraine’s war against Russia, in which Ukraine is unable to reclaim its territory from Russia despite the full support of the US and its Western neighbours. Meanwhile, the US’ biggest rival and strategic competitor is neither Russia nor Iran, but China, as it is reaching the zenith of economic development and modernisation of Chinese troops for recapturing Taiwan and reclaiming its greater dominance and share in the South China Sea and beyond. On that front, the US has pursued the Indo-Pacific Policy for economic, technological and military containment of China in that theatre of war. However, the ongoing war in the Middle East has shifted the US’ focus from Ukraine and the Indo-Pacific to the Middle East – a blessing in disguise for both Russia and China.
At the same time, Arab sheikh kingdoms with strong ties with the US for security and economic purposes are equally worried about the spillover effects of the ongoing crisis. Many of these kingdoms feared that Iran and its proxies might target US bases and oil facilities in their respective kingdoms, which would have dire consequences for their security and economies. Furthermore, most of them also fully know that their public opinion is heavily pro-Palestinian, irrespective of age groups. The defiance shown by Iran and its Axis of Resistance in favour of Arab Palestine is also seen positively by the Arab street population. In that context, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Qatar, especially those who have strong ties with Iran, are pushing hard that Arab monarchies are neutral in the ongoing crisis between Iran and Israel.
Moreover, one year of the Gaza War also evaporated much of the goodwill of the Abraham Accords 1.0, which set the stage for normalisation among UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Israel to exchange economic development, technological transfer and formation of a common front against Iran. Before the eruption of the Gaza war, there is news in the air of such normalisation between Israel and Saudi. However, the current crisis in the Middle East has hindered progress on such an initiative. Owing to pressure from Arab public opinion, most monarchies are putting their eggs in the basket of the Palestine cause.
The one-year events of the Gaza War have provided many lessons. First, the Palestinian cause will endure until Palestinians achieve a sovereign and independent state. Second, Iran and its Axis of Resistance, despite many setbacks, will continue its efforts for the Palestine cause and their dominance in the region. Third, Israel, despite its tactical victories, will shortly be less secure, vulnerable and more dependent on the US. Fourth, the US’ prolonged support for Israel’s aggressive regional policies may gradually diminish its global power and influence. This commitment risks depleting significant economic and military resources, potentially compromising US efforts in other strategic areas, such as Ukraine and its policy of containing China. Fifth, China and Russia will be able to gain much influence in the Middle East. Lastly, the UN and its key components, like the UN Security Council, the UN General Assembly and the International Court of Justice, are unable to exact their power regarding the matter of peace and security.
The world’s great powers appear to have overlooked historical lessons: lasting peace in the region hinges on Palestinian self-determination and the establishment of a viable, sovereign Palestinian state. Therefore, immediate action must be taken to secure a ceasefire and halt Israel’s war crimes against Palestinians. Meanwhile, Western powers should engage Iran and re-integrate it as a responsible state in the international community. Otherwise, geopolitical tensions, regional skirmishes and proxy wars will threaten global peace, security and economy.
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor or Informed Comment.
Sher Ali Bukhari is an independent journalist based in Lahore who writes on Foreign policy and regional and global issues.
Unless otherwise stated in the article above, this work by Middle East Monitor is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
© 2024 All Rights Reserved