Istanbul (Special to Informed Comment; Feature) – After four years of frozen conflict, Syrian rebels, mainly from the Islamist group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), launched a surprise offensive against President Bashar al-Assad’s government in northwestern Syria on November 27.
The rebels swiftly captured Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, marking the first time the city has changed control since 2016. After taking Aleppo, the rebels advanced southward, seizing villages, towns, and the key city of Hama on December 5.
The central city of Homs appears to be their next target.
Although Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has denied any involvement in the rebel offensive and stated that the crisis in Syria is the result of Assad’s refusal to engage in political dialogue with the opposition, Syrian state media has accused Israel and Türkiye of supporting the insurgents’ advance.
The offensive occurred amid Türkiye’s attempts to normalize relations with the Syrian government. However, these efforts had stalled, since Assad demanded that Türkiye withdraw its military forces from northern Syria as a precondition for normalization — a condition Türkiye has refused.
The Complex Relationship Between Türkiye and HTS
HTS was officially formed in January 2017 as a merger of various Islamist and jihadist groups. HTS’s main component, Al-Nusra Front, was al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria before it claimed to sever formal ties to the organization in 2016.
HTS is widely regarded as a terrorist group by several countries, including the United Nations, the United States, and the European Union. Türkiye designated HTS as a terrorist organization in August 2018.
However, Türkiye has faced accusations of indirectly or covertly supporting HTS. Even if Türkiye was not directly involved in the rebel offensive, opposition sources in contact with Turkish intelligence have claimed that Türkiye gave the green light for the offensive, Reuters reported.
Journalist Fehim Taştekin notes that HTS’s agenda differs from Ankara’s goals and warns the Turkish government to abandon its “wishful thinking” about HTS. He added that HTS is cooperating with Türkiye pragmatically for now, despite considering its secular regime “un-Islamic.”
Despite the current cooperation between HTS and SNA, there have been several instances in the previous years where HTS and Turkish-backed SNA have clashed militarily, particularly in Idlib and other opposition-held areas.
Reactions in Türkiye
While Türkiye designates the HTS as a terrorist organization, the rhetoric of Turkish officials and pro-government media suggests approval, and in some cases, even celebration of the HTS offensive.
Some Turkish pro-government media outlets and social media accounts framed the offensive as a potential Turkish territorial expansion. Pro-government accounts circulated maps depicting expanded Turkish territories, including parts of northern Syria.
The Islamist newspaper Yeni Akit portrayed the symbolic raising of the Turkish flag over Aleppo’s citadel by Syrian rebels as a victory for Türkiye, stating, “The Turkish Flag Looks Very Fitting on Aleppo Citadel.” It further remarked, “Today, the Turkish flag waves over Aleppo Citadel, one of the city’s greatest symbols, which remained under Ottoman protection for approximately 400 years.”
Pro-government Yeni Şafak praised the rebel advance with the phrase ‘The children of Aleppo are returning home.’ while columnist and former Justice and Development Party (AKP) MP Aydın Ünal claimed that the “reconquest of Aleppo” upset opposition groups in Türkiye.
However, some pro-government pundits also claim Türkiye has no ties with HTS. Sabah newspaper columnist Okan Müderrisoğlu said: “HTS is recognized as a terrorist organization by Türkiye. For this reason alone, claiming that Türkiye has an organic relationship with HTS remains a crude accusation!”
Main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader Özgür Özel, a center-left secularist, urged Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the head of the ruling pro-Islam Justice and Development Party, to avoid “plans to divide Syria” and called on Assad to open a dialogue with Türkiye to begin a new chapter for “the brotherhood of the peoples of Syria and Türkiye.”
Özel also stated, “The efforts of terrorist organizations like HTS to weaken the Syrian regime should be approached with great caution and rationality.”
What are Türkiye’s aims in Syria?
Veteran journalist Murat Yetkin claimed Ankara has three priorities in Syria.
According to Yetkin, the first goal is preventing a new wave of migration. The return of Syrian refugees to their home country has been a significant political debate in recent years and the high number of refugees has been a point of criticism for Erdoğan’s government.
This is why Turkish officials see the rebel offensive as an opportunity to facilitate the return of Syrian refugees. Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya stated that 42 percent of Syrians in Türkiye come from Aleppo. He added, “If a safe and peaceful environment is established in Tel Rifat and Aleppo, there will be a strong inclination for people to return there.”
Türkiye’s second goal is to prevent pro-Kurdish forces from gaining new positions. On November 30, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) launched ‘Operation Dawn of Freedom’ against both the Syrian Army and the pro-Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The core of the SDF, which is U.S.-backed, is the leftist Kurdish YPG (People’s Defense Units). The Turkish government makes no distinction between the YPG, a Syrian Kurdish militia, and the PKK (the Kurdistan Workers’ Party), an Anatolian-based guerrilla group that Turkey views as a virulent terrorist organization.
Türkiye’s state-run Anadolu Agency reported that the Sunni Arab SNA captured Tel Rifaat from the SDF Kurds, framing the offensive as part of efforts to disrupt the “PKK/YPG’s plan to create a terrorist corridor along the Tel Rifaat–Mare region.”
Yetkin said the third goal is resolving the crisis as much as possible through diplomacy and “proxy forces.”
To address the ongoing crisis in Syria, Iran, Türkiye, and Russia will meet in Doha for the Astana Summit. Several media outlets in Türkiye suggest that the rebel offensive will strengthen Ankara’s position in its normalization efforts.
CNN Türk reported that Ankara hopes Iran and Russia will pressure Bashar al-Assad to agree to negotiate with Türkiye following the meeting.
——-
Bonus video added by Informed Comment:
Voice of America: “Syrian rebels’ advances offer Turkey opportunity ”
© 2024 All Rights Reserved