( RFE/ RL ) – The 15-month conflict in the Middle East has caused a dramatic shift in the regional balance of power.
Iran and Russia have been severely weakened as Israel has pounded Tehran’s proxies in the region, leading also to the collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria. Israel has emerged strengthened, but countries such as Turkey, Egypt, and Qatar have also gained influence.
Iran’s decline is perhaps the most striking. Its much-vaunted “axis of resistance” was based primarily on Hamas and Hezbollah, both listed as terrorist organizations by Israel, the United States, and other countries.
Dramatic Changes
The war began after Hamas launched its attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. In a dramatic escalation of decades of conflict, Hamas raids into Israel killed over 1,200 people, and the militant group seized over 200 hostages.
The Israeli bombing and ground campaign that followed has killed the top figures in the Hamas leadership and an estimated 18,000 Hamas fighters.
But it also reduced Gaza to rubble, killing some 46,000 people in total, according to Gaza health authorities.
“Weakening Hamas’s core leadership and destroying Gaza is going to fuel other types of militancy,” said Fatima Ayub, a Washington-based political analyst and researcher on the Middle East and South Asia.
On January 14, former U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Washington estimates that Hamas has recruited as many fighters as it lost during the war.
“That is a recipe for an enduring insurgency and perpetual war,” he told an audience in Washington.
Iran’s Debacle
The war was a disaster for Iran. During the past four decades, Tehran has spent billions on building a network of militant proxies across the region in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Gaza, and Yemen.
Today, that lies in tatters.
Since September 2024, Israel has dealt severe blows to Hezbollah in Lebanon by killing its long-standing leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and his key associates.
The Israeli onslaught strongly diminished Hezbollah, which was previously the most powerful political force in Lebanon. Beirut now has a new president and prime minister. Both are seen as moderate and reformist figures free from Tehran’s influence.
Photo by Mohamad Mekawi: https://www.pexels.com/photo/crowd-on-a-street-10091339/
In Syria there was an even more profound impact. Hezbollah was no longer able to help President Bashar al-Assad maintain his grip on power. Nor were Russian forces, distracted and diluted by their much bigger war in Ukraine.
“Israel set in motion a chain of events that ultimately led to the collapse of the Assad regime,” said Hugh Lovatt, a Middle East expert at London’s European Council on Foreign Relations think tank.
Tehran was forced to withdraw from Syria in the wake of Assad’s collapse.
“In Iran, even among hard-liners and the proponents of the axis of resistance, they accept that they have been defeated,” said Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute in Washington.
He said that it is too early to tell whether this will be a turning point for Tehran’s regional ambitions as it weighs giving up on Islamist militant groups in the Arab states.
“The costs are exceeding the benefits,” Vatanka said. “And if they make that decision, we will face a different reality of the Iranian regional agenda going forward.”
He said Iran’s influence over the Huthi rebels in Yemen is more tenuous.
The United States, Israel, and Britain have attacked power and port infrastructure controlled by the group in northern Yemen after it fired missiles and drones at Israel and attacked maritime traffic in the Red Sea.
“The Huthis have far more independence and an agenda of their own in terms of the Palestinians,” he said. “[They are] not so dependent on what Iran decides to do.”
Moscow’s Exit
Assad’s flight to exile in Moscow means that Russia has lost its military foothold in the Middle East.
Russian forces were filmed evacuating, reportedly to eastern Libya. The Kremlin has lost an ally that dates back to the Cold War.
“It has suffered a huge strategic blow,” Lovatt said. “I don’t see any imminent openings for Russia to reassert itself in the Middle East.”
However, other nations in the Middle East have gained influence at the expense of Tehran, Moscow, and their allies.
Turkey will now have plenty of opportunities to shape Syria’s future.
Ankara-backed Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) now leads the interim government in Damascus after toppling Assad’s government in a lightning offensive.
Turkey Replacing Iran As The Dominant Foreign Player In Syria
Israel now finds itself in a much stronger military position, having dealt powerful blows to many enemies.
Egypt and Qatar have scored diplomatic gains by brokering the elusive truce between Hamas and Israel.
However, Saudi Arabia, the oil-rich Sunni monarchy, has not gained much from the war.
“They put all their money on the Abraham Accords and were close to normalizing with Israel formally before October 7,” said Ayub, the analyst in Washington. “But they had no meaningful sway on regional developments since then.”
The United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, key allies of Riyadh, recognized Israel under the Abraham Accords in September 2020.
The prewar hopes for Saudi Arabia to follow suit may be a casualty of the conflict, given the scale of death and destruction in Gaza.
This factor has also turned much public opinion in the region against the United States, which has called on Israel to show restraint while also providing the weapons it needed to wage war.
Both the outgoing and incoming U.S. administrations claimed credit for the peace deal, but it will be for President-elect Donald Trump to deal with the aftermath.
It’s expected he will adopt a policy of maximum pressure toward Iran. His rhetoric has been firmly pro-Israel. The coming days will show if the peace deal holds — and how Trump’s arrival reshuffles the cards once again.
Via RFE/ RL
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