By Nasim Ahmed | –
( Middle East Monitor ) – Israel’s war on Gaza has shattered whatever illusions remained about the strength of US hegemony in the Middle East. The essays in a recent study “Debating American Primacy in the Middle East” bring into sharp focus the extent to which the US funded Israeli genocide in Gaza has accelerated global shifts in power, exposing the limits of Washington’s influence and leaving a vacuum that other actors are eagerly filling. The past 16 months, argue the authors, have not only exposed deep fractures in US alliances but also demonstrated the sheer exhaustion of the post-World War II order that once allowed America to dictate the region’s future. What was once an uncontested US-led system is now riddled with challenges from regional and global actors who are increasingly willing to defy American dictates.
According to the study, US primacy in the Middle East has never rested on military force alone. Its dominance was built on a mix of coercion, economic leverage, and the carefully maintained illusion of a liberal international order—one supposedly grounded in rules, institutions and multilateral diplomacy. But Israel’s aggression in Gaza has stripped away this façade, exposing a glaring double standard. The US, which has long positioned itself as a global defender of democracy and human rights, has instead found itself justifying and enabling an ally engaged in actions that violate the very principles it claims to uphold. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruling that Israel’s actions plausibly constitute genocide has put Washington in a position of unprecedented moral and political isolation. Rather than reassess its stance, the US has blocked ceasefire resolutions at the UN and continued to supply weapons, demonstrating that its commitment to “rules-based order” applies only when it serves American interests.
For decades, Washington’s closest Arab allies — Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and the UAE — have maintained their alignment with the US in exchange for security guarantees. But, as the study details, this arrangement is becoming harder to sustain. The assault on Gaza has ignited public anger across the Arab world at a level not seen since the early days of the Arab Spring, forcing even the most US-aligned governments to reconsider their positions. Jordan, historically one of America’s most reliable partners, took the extraordinary step of supporting the ICJ case against Israel. Saudi Arabia, which had been moving towards normalising ties with Israel under US mediation, has now been forced to shelve those plans indefinitely. The authors of the study argue that the US, once seen as the key regional power broker, is rapidly losing credibility as a mediator, let alone a hegemon.
One of the most striking points made in the study is the extent to which Washington’s commitment to Israel’s security has transformed from a strategic calculation into an ideological fixation — one that no longer serves even Israel’s interests. Far from ensuring its long-term security, US support has helped push Israel into deeper isolation. Since 7 October 2023, Israel has framed its assault on Gaza as an existential fight, but rather than eliminating Hamas, the war has instead made Gaza a global symbol of Western hypocrisy, strengthened resistance movements across the region and increased instability.
The study also points to the impact on America’s traditional alliances in Europe. While European governments have largely followed Washington’s lead in backing Israel, public opinion has shifted dramatically. The scale of destruction in Gaza has mobilised widespread protests and forced European leaders — many of whom have historically been staunchly pro-Israel — to adopt a more critical tone. This marks a significant break from previous US-European relations. For decades, the transatlantic alliance has been a key pillar of US global primacy, yet the study argues that Washington’s handling of Gaza has shown that it can no longer rely on automatic European backing. The Biden administration’s failure to secure a ceasefire despite months of mounting pressure has exposed the limits of its influence, not just over Israel but over its own allies.
Beyond the immediate diplomatic fallout, the study suggests that the broader consequences of this moment will reshape global power structures. The US dollar’s dominance in global trade and the influence of American-led financial institutions are already being challenged, with countries actively seeking ways to reduce their economic dependence on Washington. The BRICS alliance, which includes China, Russia and key Global South economies, is gaining momentum, with several Middle Eastern states expressing interest in closer ties. The study argues that if US primacy means unconditional support for Israel at any cost, then alternative global alignments will only become more attractive.
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What emerges from this analysis is not the immediate collapse of US hegemony, but its gradual and highly visible erosion. The US remains a powerful actor, but the study makes it clear that Washington can no longer dictate terms as it once did. Arab states that were once deeply embedded in the American security architecture are actively diversifying their partnerships, strengthening ties with China, Russia and even Iran. The security arrangements that underpinned US dominance in the region for decades are now being renegotiated, with Washington struggling to keep up.
Perhaps nowhere is this shift more apparent than in the failure of the Abraham Accords to withstand the fallout from Gaza. The accords were designed to cement Israel’s integration into a US-backed regional order, but the ongoing assault has rendered them meaningless. Arab states that had normalised ties with Israel, such as the UAE and Bahrain, now find themselves having to publicly distance themselves from its actions. Saudi Arabia, once the key target for US-led normalisation efforts, has decisively stepped back. The study argues that the belief that Israel could maintain these deals while waging an all-out assault on Gaza was always unrealistic — and the events of the past year have confirmed that the future of the region will not be shaped by US-brokered backroom agreements but by the realities of power on the ground.
The study also highlights the internal impact on Israel itself, arguing that the Gaza assault has had devastating consequences not just for Palestinians but for Israeli democracy. The far-right government of Benjamin Netanyahu has used the crisis to push through increasingly authoritarian measures, suppressing dissent, targeting political opponents and further entrenching an anti-democratic state. For years, Israel’s defenders have justified US support by portraying it as “the only democracy in the Middle East,” yet its current trajectory calls that claim into question.
For Palestinians, the study makes clear that the ongoing assault has not just deepened their suffering — it has exposed the complete failure of US-backed diplomatic efforts. The Palestinian Authority, long seen as Washington’s preferred mechanism for managing the occupation, has lost whatever legitimacy it once had. As the study’s authors argue, the idea that a US-led peace process will deliver a just solution to the conflict is now as outdated as the assumption that Washington still has the power to unilaterally shape the region’s future.
The world that is emerging in the wake of Gaza genocide is one in which US dominance can no longer be taken for granted. Regional actors are asserting themselves, often in direct defiance of Washington’s goals. The global order that once revolved around American primacy is steadily shifting — not through dramatic upheavals, but through the cumulative weight of lost influence, realigned alliances, and a growing recognition that the US is no longer the undisputed power it once was.
According to Debating American Primacy in the Middle East, what we are witnessing is not just another moment of crisis, but a turning point. The contradictions of US foreign policy, the fragility of its alliances, and the limits of its power have all been laid bare. The decline of American hegemony is not a future projection—it is unfolding now, in real time, across the Middle East and beyond. The only question that remains is whether Washington will acknowledge this reality and adapt, or whether it will continue clinging to a system of dominance that is already slipping away.
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