Can the Caspian Sea be Saved from turning into an environmental Disaster?

It could lose one third of its area by the end of the century

( Global Voices ) – The Caspian Sea, the largest enclosed body of water in the world, faces a grim future in the form of significant desiccation, loss of flora and fauna, and large-scale pollution. All these processes have already started and their further deterioration poses immense risks for the economies and environment of the five littoral states: Kazakhstan, Russia, Azerbaijan, Iran, and Turkmenistan.

However, the list of affected stakeholders extends far beyond these countries, as the Caspian Sea plays an important role in the global trade, energy, and transport spheres. The sea is home to the third largest oil and natural gas reserves in the world and acts as the crucial link of the so-called Middle Corridor connecting Asia and Europe.

In recent years the water level reached the lowest recorded point in history. If the water level continues to decline at the current rate, it is forecasted it will drop by up to 18 meters by the end of the century. Under this scenario, the water surface will shrink by around 93,000 square kilometers, which is 34 percent of the surface area of the sea and roughly the size of Portugal. In this regard, the Caspian may repeat the fate of the nearby desiccated Aral Sea, which is considered one of the largest anthropogenic environmental disasters in the history of the world.

Photo of Vadim Ni. Used with permission.

Global Voices conducted a written interview with Vadim Ni, one of the founders of the Save the Caspian Sea campaign to discuss the challenges facing the sea, consequences of the pollution, and measures necessary to ensure that it does not repeat the Aral Sea’s fate. The interview has been edited for clarity and brevity.

Nurbek Bekmurzaev (NB): Can you please tell how Save the Caspian Sea was created? What are the main goals of your initiative?

Vadim Ni (VN): We founded the Save the Caspian Sea movement in December 2024 together with a group of Kazakhstani and foreign environmentalists, activists, and human rights defenders. The reason was the critical state of the Caspian Sea, caused by rising temperatures, a decrease in the flow of the Volga River, which amounted to 80-85 percent of the water in the sea, as well as industrial pollution. These changes have led to the degradation of ecosystems, a decrease in marine populations, and a deterioration in the living conditions of coastal communities.

The main goals of the movement are to attract international attention to the problems of the Caspian Sea, introduce strict environmental standards, and ensure transparency in the activities of industrial companies. We seek to strengthen environmental control over the oil and gas industry, develop programs to restore ecosystems, and increase international cooperation in protecting the Caspian Sea. At the moment, the initiative has already united experts, environmentalists, public organizations, journalists and business representatives.

NB: What are the problems and challenges facing the Caspian Sea face and jeopardizing its future? Who are its main polluters?

VN: The Caspian Sea faces several serious problems. The main one is the rapid decline in water levels. Since 2006, the sea has become almost two meters shallower, and by the end of the century, it is predicted to fall by another 8–18 meters. In some areas of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, the coastline has already retreated by tens of kilometers, which leads to the destruction of coastal ecosystems, the drying up of spawning grounds, and the death of many species of aquatic inhabitants.

In addition to climate change, industrial and household waste pollution causes significant damage. The main polluters are oil and gas companies operating in the Tengiz, Kashagan, and Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli fields. Their activities lead to oil spills and the emission of sulfur compounds and heavy metals, which negatively affect the quality of water and marine life. The Volga and Ural rivers also play a huge role in pollution, carrying industrial waste, pesticides, and microplastics into the Caspian.

These processes have already led to a sharp decline in sturgeon populations. Due to pollution and uncontrolled fishing, the Caspian seal population has also declined by more than 90 percent.

We are actively pressing the government of Kazakhstan to disclose the obligations of oil and gas companies under the production sharing and concession agreements signed in the 1990s. These agreements established the legal basis for oil production, but their terms have never been published, resulting in a lack of transparency regarding the companies’ environmental obligations. Public access to this information is necessary to ensure accountability and protect the Caspian Sea ecosystem from further damage.

NB: Who is fighting to preserve the Caspian Sea at the local, national, and regional levels?

VN: The protection of the Caspian Sea is ensured by both local and international organizations, as well as independent activists, many of whom are members of our campaign. In Kazakhstan, one of the key participants in the movement is the Center for Environmental Legal Initiatives “Globus,” which is engaged in protecting the rights of citizens to a favorable environment. In Azerbaijan, the Association for Environmental Education is actively promoting initiatives to reduce water pollution.

Photo of Anzali on the Caspian by Mehdi Khoshnevis on Unsplash

At the international level, the environmental organization Crude Accountability monitors oil production activities in the Caspian region and draws attention to pollution problems. In addition, a significant role is played by the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), which requires transparency in the work of industrial companies and their compliance with environmental standards.

The Save the Caspian Sea movement has already become the first Central Asian member of the global Blue Community network from Central Asia, which emphasizes its importance in the international environmental community. It unites scientists, environmentalists and activists who are working to create long-term strategies for the conservation of the sea and its ecosystem.

Despite these efforts, the fight to preserve the Caspian remains difficult due to the lack of effective mechanisms for regional cooperation. Protecting the body of water requires active cooperation between governments, businesses, and civil society, as well as increased enforcement of environmental regulations.

NB: What needs to be done to prevent the Caspian Sea from suffering the same fate as the Aral Sea?

VN: Comprehensive measures must be taken urgently. At the state level, the Caspian countries must develop joint programs to conserve water resources, including limiting industrial water intake, restoring ecosystems, and preventing waste dumping.

Tightening environmental standards for the oil and gas sector plays a special role. Companies operating in the region must be required to implement safe production methods, minimize emissions of harmful substances, and invest in restoring the marine environment.

International organizations and environmental funds must support initiatives aimed at protecting the Caspian Sea, and also actively oppose the expansion of destructive industrial projects in the region.

At the individual level, citizens can contribute by supporting environmental organizations, participating in coastal cleanups, and reducing their plastic consumption. Only joint action at all levels will help preserve the Caspian Sea for future generations.

Via Global Voices

Written byNurbek Bekmurzaev

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