The ocean holds the answer.
( Foreign Policy in Focus) – The rise of nationalist leaders epitomized by Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, cuts to UN climate funding, and dismissal of multilateralism as “globalist” interference has sparked a pivotal question: Can international cooperation survive in an era of “sovereignty-first” politics?
The stakes could not be higher. From the accelerating climate crisis to the scramble for ocean resources, the erosion of collective governance threatens to deepen existential risks, particularly for vulnerable regions and global commons like the high seas. Yet, even as unilateralism gains ground—from Brazil’s Amazon deforestation under Bolsonaro and China’s aggressive maritime claims to the U.S. rejection of the Law of the Sea Treaty—a counter-movement is emerging.
At the heart of this struggle lies the ocean, a contested frontier where two futures collide: one of unchecked exploitation, the other of shared stewardship. Innovative solutions from debt-for-nature swaps to blue bonds are testing whether multilateralism can adapt or if geopolitics will doom humanity’s last best hope for equitable climate action.
The Climate-Debt Trap
The countries of the Global South face a cruel paradox. Although they contribute the least to climate change, they suffer the worst consequences. After hurricanes and rising seas devastate their economies, they borrow to rebuild—only to face the next disaster with even heavier debt burdens. Today, many such countries have debt-to-GDP ratios exceeding 100 percent, leaving little room for climate resilience investments.
These problems affect small island states the most, but not only them. Pakistan’s post-flood debt spiral, Mozambique’s cyclone-driven fiscal crises, and even wealthy nations’ rising disaster costs prove that climate-linked financial instability is a global threat. The Trump administration’s rejection of multilateral climate finance, rooted in skepticism of climate science and a reluctance to share financial burdens, has left a gaping void. Institutions like the IMF and World Bank, designed for twentieth-century crises, are ill-equipped for today’s challenges.
The solution? Debt relief tied to conservation, climate-resilient infrastructure, and reformed global financial rules. The tools exist.
What’s missing is political will.
The Ocean as a Battleground for Multilateralism’s Future
Covering 70 percent of the planet and absorbing 30 percent of global carbon-dioxide emissions, the ocean is both a lifeline and a battleground. While some nations push for deep-sea mining, engage in overfishing, and promote unchecked resource extraction, others champion the “blue economy,” balancing ecological health with sustainable growth.
There are signs of progress.
Belize’s 2021 debt-for-nature swap erased $364 million in debt in exchange for marine conservation commitments. The Seychelles’ $15 million blue bond funded ocean protection while stabilizing its economy. The 2023 High Seas Treaty, though weakened by resistance from China and Russia, marked a rare win for global ocean governance.
Yet, these gains are fragile. The same forces that fueled Trump’s “America First” agenda distrust international bodies and agreements. These leaders and political movements are trapped in a zero-sum resource competition that threatens to unravel all the multilateral actions to reduce debt and strengthen climate resiliency.
Three Shifts Needed to Survive
The future of multilateralism hinges on transforming climate finance from charity to strategic investment, recognizing that ecological resilience anywhere benefits everyone. Small island nations protecting seagrass meadows aren’t just preserving local ecosystems. They’re maintaining carbon sinks that sequester CO₂ 35 times faster than rainforests, while West African coastal states combating illegal fishing safeguard 20 percent of the world’s tuna supply.
This shift is already underway, with initiatives like the EU’s Global Gateway Initiative funding mangrove restoration in Indonesia to protect vital shipping lanes and Swiss Re’s $50 million coral reef bond in Mexico acknowledging that healthy marine ecosystems prevent billions in storm damage. The lesson is clear: climate action is global risk management, where every dollar spent on ocean health yields cross-border dividends.
This kind of investment requires innovative governance models that combine UN frameworks with regional coalitions, creating systems where small states can leverage collective power without sacrificing autonomy. The Pacific Islands Forum’s 2050 Strategy demonstrates how 18 nations forced major powers to accept stronger fishing quotas while attracting $500 million in green port investments, while the Arctic Council shows how rivals can cooperate on environmental rules despite geopolitical tensions. Even great-power competition could be channeled productively. Imagine U.S.-China joint ventures piloting AI-monitored marine protected areas in contested waters or competing to build the most efficient offshore wind turbines rather than fighting over rare earth minerals. Like the Cold War’s Antarctic Treaty that preserved science over sovereignty, these approaches wouldn’t eliminate rivalry but would create shared stakes in ecological stability, proving that in an interconnected world, collective survival ultimately serves every nation’s self-interest.
Swim Together or Sink Alone
The ocean’s fate—and, by extension, humanity’s—depends on whether multilateralism can evolve. Leaders like Trump may scorn global cooperation, but the climate-debt crisis proves that no nation is immune. The future of the oceans—and, indeed, shared planetary health—calls for a renewed commitment to international cooperation. The good news is that practical, win-win solutions already exist that demonstrate how environmental protection and economic prosperity can be mutually reinforced.
Debt-for-nature swaps have emerged as an innovative financial instrument that benefits all parties. Belize’s landmark agreement, developed in partnership with The Nature Conservancy and Credit Suisse, successfully converted a portion of sovereign debt into long-term marine conservation funding while providing creditors with guaranteed returns. Similar mechanisms are now being explored by other coastal nations, offering a replicable model that aligns debt sustainability with environmental protection.
Via Pixabay .
Blue bonds represent another promising avenue, combining market mechanisms with conservation goals. The World Bank-supported initiative in Seychelles has demonstrated how carefully structured financial instruments can attract institutional investors while safeguarding marine ecosystems. These bonds are now being adapted to different national contexts, with technical support from multilateral development banks.
Ocean-smart trade policies offer yet another pathway forward. Recent agreements incorporating sustainable fishing provisions show how trade relationships can be structured to promote responsible resource management. The updated fisheries provisions in U.S. trade agreements, for instance, illustrate how economic partnerships can include meaningful environmental safeguards.
What remains is the political will to bring these solutions to scale. Although implementation challenges exist, the fundamental architecture for cooperation is in place. Through sustained dialogue and good faith engagement, the international community has both the tools and the shared interest to protect oceans not as an act of charity but as a necessary investment in a collective future. The time has come to move from pilot projects to systemic implementation, building on what works while continuing to refine these approaches through international collaboration.
The choice isn’t between sovereignty and cooperation. It’s between a livable future shared by all, or a fractured world where everyone loses.
© 2025 All Rights Reserved