Arzu Geybullayeva – Informed Comment https://www.juancole.com Thoughts on the Middle East, History and Religion Tue, 06 Aug 2024 04:32:29 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=5.8.10 Turkey’s Erdoğan threatens to intervene in Israel https://www.juancole.com/2024/08/turkeys-threatens-intervene.html Tue, 06 Aug 2024 04:06:28 +0000 https://www.juancole.com/?p=219864 ( Globalvoices.org ) – A verbal spat between Turkey and Israel highlighted the country’s complicated relationship with Israel and Palestine and drew attention to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s penchant for doublespeak.

During a speech in the province of Rize on July 28, Erdoğan said there was no reason for Turkey not to intervene in Israel’s war on Gaza, just like it has done in  Karabakh and Libya. The president did not elaborate on what this intervention would look like. 

The remarks triggered an exchange that started with Israel’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Israel Katz, comparing Erdoğan to Saddam Hussain in a post on X, writing, “Erdoğan follows in the footsteps of Saddam Hussein and threatens to attack Israel. Just let him remember what happened there and how it ended.” The Minister was referring to Saddam Hussain’s capture and eventual execution.

Katz also urged NATO to expel Turkey following Erdoğan’s remarks. An opposition figure Yair Lapid also joined the fray, calling on the world and NATO to “strongly condemn [Erdoğan’s] outrageous threats against Israel and force him to end his support for Hamas,” adding that Israel “won’t accept threats from a wannabe dictator.”

There were no statements from NATO or any of its members at the time of writing this story, with the exception of a bipartisan group of US lawmakers who denounced Erdoğan’s threats.

Turkey’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded on X, comparing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Adolf Hitler, “Just as genocidal Hitler ended, so will genocidal Netanyahu. Just as the genocidal Nazis were held accountable, so will those who try to destroy the Palestinians.”

Turkey’s public broadcaster TRT took it a step further in a tweet:

“Just as genocidal Hitler ended, so will genocidal Netanyahu” The murderer of millions, Hitler, drank cyanide and then shot himself after losing Berlin. Just as genocidal Hitler ended, so will genocidal Netanyahu.

The Directorate of Communication also tweeted, “They have committed an atrocity that will outshine Hitler, the most cursed figure of the last century. Gaza has become the world’s largest extermination camp today.”

Since October 2023, Turkey went from trying to mediate between Israel and Hamas to recalling its ambassador to Tel Aviv and announcing total restrictions on all trade with Israel until the war on Gaza ends. But a recent investigation by Turkish journalist Metin Cihan showed how Turkey has continued to steadily supply oil to Israel via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline — a gas pipeline that carries Azerbaijani oil through Georgia to Turkey’s Mediterranean ports, where it is then shipped around the world, including Israel.

Turkey continued to maintain the flow despite calls to halt the supply of Azerbaijani oil exports to Israel (Turkey did restrict the sale of certain goods to Israel in April and announced its decision to cease all trade ties with Israel in May 2024). Reportedly, the sale of Azerbaijani oil to Israel increased by 23 percent between January to April 2024, compared to the indicators from 2023.


Image by Arzu Geybullayeva

Using data from BOTAS — Turkey’s state-owned oil and gas company which operates Turkey’s section of the BTC — Cihan wrote how millions of barrels of oil are shipped from Ceyhan on a monthly basis. “We don’t know how much of it goes to Israel,” wrote Cihan on X. “According to our Minister of Energy, we do not have influence nor authority over where oil is shipped. The oil is sold by Azerbaijan. We simply get our share,” explained Cihan.

In his following tweets, Cihan wrote that after looking into relevant agreements, Turkey cannot sanction this trade route given the existing agreements. “According to an agreement with British Petroleum (BP) we would pay compensation to the company in case of a delay of petroleum for any given reason,” explained Cihan. “According to the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline agreement [Turkey] signed we are obligated to continue supply oil even at times of war or terrorism. This trade is considered superior even to human rights and state sovereignty. In exchange, we receive a share of 80 cents per barrel of oil loaded onto tankers from Ceyhan,” added Cihan.

Due to this agreement, Erdoğan’s statement was viewed in Turkey as nothing but an empty threat. In a tweet, veteran journalist, Amberin Zaman wrote, “If Erdoğan meant any of it he would start off by halting Azerbaijani oil sales to Israel which go through Turkish ports.”

President Erdoğan has made empty provocative statements before. On two occasions in 2022, he said Turkey could invade Greece overnight.

Turkey also took a U-turn in the Gulf Diplomatic Crisis. During the crisis, Turkey backed Qatar while Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt severed their ties with Qatar. After openly supporting Qatar in the conflict, Turkey’s relations with Saudia Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt took a chilly turn. However, once the crisis ended, Erdoğon changed his tune on these countries and relations improved dramatically.

In the case of Egypt, relations between the two countries soured after former president Mohammed Morsi was ousted in a military-backed uprising in 2013. Morsi was a leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, which had ties with the ruling Turkish Justice and Development Party (AKP). But in 2022 during the opening of the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar, the infamous handshake between President Erdoğan and his Egyptian counterpart Abdel Fattah el-Sisi signaled that changes were afoot.

In January 2024, Erdoğan traveled to Cairo where he signed several agreements with al-Sisi.

On the United Arab Emirates front, the ties between the two countries showed signs of thawing in 2022, when the UAE expressed interest in purchasing Turkey’s Bayraktar drones. After Erdoğan’s victory in the May 2023 election, the two countries signed a five-year trade agreement.

But the recent strongly worded statement from the President should not go unnoticed, warned Sinan Ciddi and Sophia Epley in a recent policy brief for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), a Washington DC-based research institute. The authors wrote:

Erdoğan often threatens other countries to bolster political support from his nationalist and Islamist base. Neither the United States nor its NATO allies should ignore Erdoğan. President Joe Biden in concert with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg should demand a de-escalatory statement and corrective language from Erdoğan.

There is also the matter of domestic audience as Gonul Tol, the director of the Middle East Institute’s Turkey program explained in an interview with Al-Monitor, “The tough rhetoric against Israel is his attempt at keeping his most conservative supporters from defecting to New Welfare and to maintain his image as ‘a tough guy who stands up to Israel.”

According to a survey by the Turkish Foundation for Political, Economic, and Social Research (SETA), which is known for its close ties to the ruling party, in 2024, an overwhelming 83 percent of the respondents expressed support for Palestine. In October of last year, hundreds of thousands of Turks attended a pro-Palestine rally waving Turkish and Palestinian flags.

Erdoğan’s statement also stirred some international controversy, especially with his reference to Karabakh — a formerly disputed territory between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which Azerbaijan reclaimed control over last year. Turkish troops were not directly involved in the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2020 but the country did provide operational and political support “by supplying arms and conducting joint military drills during the Nagorno-Karabakh war.” Naturally, the president’s remarks about “entering Karabakh” raised eyebrows as both Turkey and Azerbaijan denied direct involvement of foreign troops during the war and after. In response to a media inquiry, Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Defense called the statement untrue.

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Secular Opposition Crushes pro-Islam AKP in Turkey’s Local Elections https://www.juancole.com/2024/04/secular-opposition-elections.html Tue, 02 Apr 2024 04:06:41 +0000 https://www.juancole.com/?p=217855

It was the best opposition performance since the late 1970s

( Globalvoices.org ) – Turkey’s local elections which took place on March 31, will go down in history as one of its most surprising. Turkey’s demoralized opposition, namely the [secular] Republican People’s Party (CHP), dominated in what many pundits described as the ruling [center-right] Justice and Development Party’s worst defeat of its 22-year existence. For the first time since 1977, the CHP took more votes nationwide. In his televised address afterward, the CHP leader Özgür Özel called the elections “historic” as he teared up. Scores of supporters took to the streets to celebrate the results across Turkey.

Istanbul, where CHP secured victory in 2019, was one of the key cities in this year’s race. At the time, losing control over the municipality in Istanbul was described as a major blow to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his Justice and Development party (AKP), as it was where he started his political career when he was elected mayor in 1994. The results of yesterday’s election nationwide cemented this rejoinder on Erdoğan’s agenda.

In the capital, Ankara, the CHP’s incumbent mayor, Mansur Yavaş, outdid his rival by over 28 percent. In Turkey’s third-largest city, Izmir, opposition candidate Cemil Tugar finished 11 points ahead of the ruling party’s candidate.

Elsewhere across the country, as the results were trickling in, the map was slowly turning red as many of the provinces previously led by the AKP were showing victories for the opposition party candidates.

According to Gönül Tol, Director of the Middle East Institute’s Turkish Program, the change was “notable,” as “opposition CHP [was] not confined to coastal regions but expanding into Anatolia, the conservative/nationalist heartland of the country.”

In total, the opposition won in 35 out of 81 provinces. The rest of the provinces were split between AKP (24 provinces), the Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM, 10 provinces), the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP, 8 provinces), the New Welfare Party (two provinces), and Iyi Party (Good Party, one province). With some six million eligible voters, the turnout at the time of writing this story was estimated at more than 78 percent across the country’s 81 provinces, with almost all ballots counted. In previous municipal elections, the turnout was 84.5 percent. In Turkey, the voter turnout has always been high ranging between 70 and 90 percent throughout the years.

This victory also reversed political tides ahead of the next general elections scheduled for 2028. There were hints the AKP would be making constitutional changes which could allow incumbent President Erdoğan to stay in power, despite earlier promises these elections would be his last.

While the president cannot legally run in the next presidential race in 2028, according to Turkey’s Constitution, there are two scenarios in which this can change. In the first scenario, Erdoğan and the AKP would need to secure 400 votes in the parliament to change the constitution. Turkey’s parliament, the Grand National Assembly, consists of 600 seats. At the moment, the AKP and its main ally, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), hold 313 seats. Thus, pushing for a constitutional amendment with a parliamentary vote would largely depend on whether the ruling party and President can secure the support of other political party representatives.

In the second scenario, the parliament can call for an early election. But even in this scenario, 360 parliamentary votes are needed.

With election results in, these plans will likely be put on hold.

While still low, the number of women mayors also increased, rising from four to 11. In Bilecik, a provincial capital of Turkey’s Bilecik Province, in northwestern Anatolia, Melek Mızrak Subaşı who was likened to Daenerys Targaryen, the fictional character in George R. R. Martin’s epic fantasy novel series A Song of Ice and Fire — which was later made into the HBO blockbuster Game of Thrones series, also secured victory.

The elections also saw instances of violence. At least one person was killed and 11 injured in the city of Diyarbakir, and at least sixteen were injured in the province of Sanliurfa, according to media reports.

Critiques against Erdoğan

As results started to trickle in, one of the widely discussed questions was what kind of election results Turkey would see had it been a different opposition candidate running against President Erdoğan.

The local election results also illustrated that the dynamics between the local and general elections were different. Turkey’s ongoing economic crisis, wherein the country’s currency lost 40 percent of its value since last year and over 80 percent in the last five years, did matter, and the voters placed the blame on the ruling government in the local elections. In an interview with Reuters, Hakan Akbaş, a senior adviser at the Albright Stonebridge Group, said, “The economy was the decisive factor. Turkish people demanded change and İmamoğlu is now the default nemesis to President Erdoğan.”

Another surprising result came from the Yeniden Refah (the New Welfare Party), a religious-conservative party which pundits speculated could divide the AKP’s votes among conservative and religious voters disillusioned by Erdoğan’s economic choices. It came third in the race after the ruling AKP secured over  six percent of votes.

In his balcony speech delivered past midnight, Erdoğan adopted a less divisive tone than usual, expressing his gratitude to all of his party candidates as well as the people. He also said the party would fix mistakes ahead of the 2028 general elections. Unlike in previous municipal elections in 2019, the ruling party also did not contest election results, with Erdoğan, saying he and his party accept the people’s decision. In 2019, after the CHP’s Ekrem İmamoğlu won against the AKP’s Binali Yıldırım, the latter objected to the results. In the re-run, İmamoğlu won with an even higher margin — some 860,000 votes versus 13,700 votes.

In securing his re-election, İmamoğlu now has a clear shot at becoming the next leader of the opposition CHP as well as a likely candidate in the next presidential race. According to Sinan Ülgen, director of the Istanbul-based Edam think tank, “This outcome has certainly been a watershed for İmamoğlu. He will emerge as the natural candidate of the opposition for the next round of presidential elections.” Whether İmamoğlu will succeed remains to be seen, especially as the popular Istanbul Mayor is still facing a charge over allegedly insulting public officials in a speech he made after he won Istanbul’s municipal election in 2019. The higher appeals court must uphold the verdict, but until then, İmamoğlu remains Istanbul’s mayor.

Also important to note is that these elections were free but not fair. Ahead of the vote, Erdoğan relied heavily on his presidential powers as well as the government institutions and media. In a country where 90 percent of traditional media is controlled by the government, it was not surprising to see that much of the air time was devoted to the ruling party and its candidates. There was plenty of disinformation, as was the case during the general elections last year. In December 2023, the Information Technologies and Communications Authority (BTK), Turkey’s top telecommunications watchdog, imposed an access ban on 16 VPN providers. The country has also witnessed a backsliding on human rights, democracyjudicial independence, and the rule of law.

Featured image: Tons of CHP supporters took to the streets after their surprise victory in Turkey’s election. Collage by Arzu Geybullayeva.

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Climate Crisis: Though Turkey’s Forests are at Risk from Wildfires, the Country is still Wedded to Dirty Coal https://www.juancole.com/2023/07/forests-wildfires-country.html Sun, 30 Jul 2023 04:04:37 +0000 https://www.juancole.com/?p=213542  

 

In Turkey, when forests are not on fire, they are being destroyed by greedy men in suits

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Turkey has a long Road ahead with renewed European Union Bid https://www.juancole.com/2023/07/turkey-renewed-european.html Sat, 22 Jul 2023 04:08:25 +0000 https://www.juancole.com/?p=213379

The EU agrees to re-engage with Turkey but with conditions

( Globalvoices.org) – On July 20, European Union foreign ministers met to discuss Ankara’s renewed accession demands and agreed to re-engage with Turkey. In the European Commission report on enlargement for 2022, they noted the EU’s concerns over the country’s “continued deterioration of democracy, the rule of law, fundamental rights and the independence of the judiciary.” However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reportedly shifted perceptions within the EU toward its neighboring countries, including Turkey.

Turkey’s aspirations to join the EU started 24 years ago — or 36 when Turkey applied for association with the European Economic Community, the precursor to the EU, in 1987. It renewed these aspirations ahead of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, earlier this month. As such, as one senior EU official told the Financial Times, “We’re not swallowing the membership demand line whole. But there’s definitely a willingness from many of us to see where we can do more together.”

How it started

Turkey was granted candidate status in 1999, and accession negotiations opened in 2005 under the condition that Turkey must meet a series of policy fields (called chapters) within the enlargement process and abide by a set of principles known as the Copenhagen political criteria.

Since then, Turkey’s EU bid grew weaker each year under the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) which took power in 2002. Over the years, internal political riffs and crackdowns on freedoms and rights have reduced the chances of the country joining the European body. That and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s inflammatory rhetoric, calling Europe “sick” and “collapsing,” while threatening to roll back some of the reforms like reinstating the death penalty, pushed the country’s European aspirations even further away. Other contested issues include Turkey’s hostile relations with Greece and Cyprus, both EU member states.

By 2018, Turkey’s accession negotiations came to a standstill.

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Sweden and Finland announced their decision to join NATO. However, the decision, which must be approved unilaterally by all 30 member states, was vetoed by Turkey, also a NATO member. Ankara said last year that unless both countries met its demands, it wouldn’t approve the bid, “citing their history of hosting members of Kurdish militant groups and Sweden’s suspension of arms sales to Turkey since 2019 over Ankara’s military operation in Syria” according to the Guardian. In addition to Turkey, Hungary also vetoed the decision for the two countries to join the alliance. In February 2023, Turkey withdrew from attending a meeting in Brussels between Sweden, Finland, and Turkey, which was meant to hash out the diplomatic standoff over Finland and Sweden’s bid to join NATO.

Finland joined the alliance in April 2023.

So it was rather surprising to hear Erdoğan renew the country’s accession aspirations ahead of the NATO summit. Shortly before leaving for the summit, he spoke to the local media, where he was quoted as saying, “First, open the way for Turkey’s membership in the European Union, and then we will open it for Sweden, just as we had opened it for Finland.”

Turkey was at odds with Sweden joining NATO following a Quran-burning incident earlier this year. But Erdoğan’s gripe with Sweden goes beyond what the leader described as an “insult to the sacred values of Muslims.”
 
Whatever the explanation is, soon there will be answers, wrote Turkey experts:

Official Ankara has other asks from Sweden too, including banning pro-Kurdish demonstrations in Sweden and extraditing various individuals Turkey labels as terrorists, wrote journalist Amberin Zaman.

How it is going

During the meeting on July 20, EU foreign ministers convened to discuss Turkey’s demands, such as “greater access to the EU customs union, visa liberalization for Turkish citizens, and an extension of aid to Ankara linked to migration management.”

In 2016, Ankara and Brussels signed a refugee deal that had Turkey halt the flow of Syrian migrants to Europe in return for visa concessions and EUR 6 billion in aid for more than 3.5 million Syrians arriving in Turkey. In July 2020, following threats leveled against the EU that Turkey would no longer block migrants’ passage to Europe, the European Parliament approved an additional EUR 500 million (USD 562 million). In 2021, the EU allocated EUR 3 billion to refugees for 2021–2023. Two EU officials who spoke to the Financial Times said additional funds had been budgeted to extend aid to Turkey.


Image by Arzu Geybullayeva

In addition to Syrian refugees, Turkey has also been on the receiving end of thousands of Afghan migrants who fled the country following the withdrawal of American troops in August 2021. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees estimates that some 4 million refugees, mostly Syrians, live in Turkey. Afghans make up the second largest group. The growing number of refugees has sparked anti-immigrant violence in Turkey.

Although additional funds were allocated to Turkey, no progress was made on Turkey’s EU accession negotiations or visa concessions. Scores of Turkish citizens have shared their stories of visa denials in recent years, which have extended to journalists and academics. In July 2023, EFJ issued a statement calling on the EU member states to stop the “de facto visa embargo imposed on journalists.”

According to data on Schengen Visa Info, out of 768,408 applications made to member states in 2o22, 645,842 applications were rejected in 2021 — about 84 percent.

Pundits say there is a long road ahead if Turkey genuinely wants to join the EU. Reforming the rule of law, adhering to democratic principles, and ensuring equal rights are just some of the pressing requirements. None of these are a problem, according to President Erdoğan, who told reporters on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Vilnius that Turkey had “no shortcomings when it comes to democracy, rights, and freedoms.”

As such, it does not look like Turkey will start implementing outstanding decisions and rulings of the European Court of Human Rights.

One high-profile example of an outstanding judiciary case is that of Osman Kavala, Turkey’s renowned philanthropist, who was sentenced to life in prison in April 2022 after his arrest in 2017 in a maximum-security prison. Kavala, a successful Turkish businessman, supported numerous civil society initiatives in Turkey over the years, including the Open Society Foundation Turkey. He was arrested on charges of “attempting to overthrow the constitutional order” and “attempting to overthrow the government” over his alleged financing of the Gezi Protests in 2013. In February 2020, Kavala was acquitted; however, hours later, he was accused of involvement in the 2016 coup attempt. Although he was cleared one month after this accusation, Kavala was kept in remand detention on the charge of “political or military espionage.” Then in January 2021, his acquittal in the Gezi Park trial was reversed, and during the trial held in February 2021, the court ruled to combine charges leveled against Kavala in the Gezi Park trial with the 2016 coup, ruling to continue his detention. Kavala’s lawyers have said the indictment is a presumptive fiction lacking any evidence. International human rights organizations and civil society groups in Turkey have said the arrest of Kavala is politically motivated.

The sentiments of required internal changes were also echoed in Brussels. Nacho Sanchez Amor, the European Parliament’s rapporteur on Turkey, said on July 18 no geopolitical bargaining was on the table. “When Turkish authorities show real interest in stopping the continuous backsliding in fundamental freedoms and rule of law,” then accession talks can return, noted the rapporteur. Other European officials noted Sweden’s membership to NATO and Turkey’s EU bid were independent of each other. Dana Spinant, the deputy chief spokesperson of the European Commission, said, “The European Union has a very structured process of enlargement, with a very, very clear set of steps that need to be taken by all candidate countries and even by those that wish to become candidate countries. You cannot link the two processes.” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also said the two were unrelated.

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In a post-election Turkey, the country remains divided on political lines https://www.juancole.com/2023/06/election-country-political.html Sun, 04 Jun 2023 04:06:03 +0000 https://www.juancole.com/?p=212406

The unequal playing field gave the incumbent an unjustified advantage

A small portrait of Arzu Geybullayeva

( Globalvoices.org) -Showing up at a polling station, as one of the two presidential candidates, in a country-wide election with a pocket full of cash may not occur to leaders of democratic countries, but in Turkey, that is what the newly re-elected President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan did on May 28. The incumbent president was seen handing out TRY 200 banknotes (USD 10) to his supporters amid cheering and blessings.
In Turkey, campaigning on an election day is prohibited, but given the unequal playing field in the run-up to both elections on May 14 and May 28, it is unlikely that President Erdoğan will face any repercussions. The same applies to countless violations documented by the Turkey-based Human Rights Association (İHD). According to their report, there was violence and vote rigging observed across Turkey on May 28. In Hatay, observers documented mass voting, while in other provinces, representatives of the main opposition CHP faced violence. According to the association, there were also instances in provinces where men voted on behalf of women or pre-stamped ballots were brought from outside. The association said:

In the light of the initial data Human Rights Association (İHD) has received and those reported in the press, it has been determined that violations including mass and open voting, obstruction of observers and party representatives, and physical violence took place in the presidential election runoff. İHD calls on all public authorities, especially the Supreme Electoral Board, to fulfill their duties in accordance with human rights standards in order to ensure fair elections.

On June 1, the Supreme Electoral Board announced the official results of the second round of presidential elections. According to the results, President Erdoğan received 52.18 percent of the votes while his opponent, Kılıçdaroğlu received 47.82 percent.

Predictions for the next five years

Already, a day after the election on May 29, the country witnessed a price hike on gas and alcoholic beverages as well as reports of medical professionals looking to leave the country. According to the Turkish Medical Association (TBB), an independent medical and health professional association, data from March 2022, some 4,000 doctors have left the country in the last ten years. The new data shared by the association showed the number of medical professionals wanting to leave in the first five months of 2023 reached 1,025. But it won’t be just the doctors leaving. According to a survey by Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung conducted among Turkish youth to evaluate their social and political opinions, “a significant proportion, 63 percent of young people, expressed a desire to live in another country if given the opportunity,” citing worsening living conditions and declining freedom in Turkey as main reasons for this decision.

Already, there are signs that Turks, from all walks of life — especially those with little children — intend to seek opportunities abroad. Among those wanting to leave are those fearing persecution by the new leadership.

Supporters of the ruling party celebrate the victory on May 28. Image by Aziz Karimov. Used with permission.

There is also the economy and the slumping of the national currency, the Turkish Lira, against the dollar. According to Morgan Stanley analysts, lest President Erdoğan reverses his policy of low-interest rates, the lira could face a 29 percent slump by the end of 2023. On June 3, Erdoğan is set to announce the new cabinet. Among them, is former Minister of Finance, Mehmet Simsek, who is expected to take over all of Turkey’s economic policies, according to reporting by Bloomberg. Pundits say Simsek’s inclusion within the new cabinet is a move that could help prop up Turkey’s struggling economy:

The economy is not the only area where Turkey is likely to see further problems, according to Daron Acemoğlu, a faculty member at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). In a detailed thread on Twitter, Acemoğlu noted judicial independence “was very bad and probably cannot get much worse.” There is also the media environment. According to Acemoğlu while he does not anticipate “a complete ban on all dissident voices,” the conditions may worsen if the state anticipates introducing further “controls on social media.” Acemoğlu also anticipates further erosion of “autonomy and impartiality of bureaucracy and security services,” as well as challenges imposed against civil society and freedoms more broadly.

Some of the restrictions on media were quick to follow. On May 30, The Radio and Television Supreme Council (RTÜK) also known as the chief censor in Turkey, launched an investigation against six opposition television channels over their coverage of the elections.

After securing another victory, President Erdoğan delivered a divisive election speech. Speaking to his supporters who gathered at the presidential palace in Ankara, he called the jailed leader of the Kurdish HDP party a terrorist and promised to keep Demirtaş behind bars. During the speech, his supporters began calling for Demirtaş’s execution. In December 2020, the European Court of Human Rights ruled that Turkey must immediately release the Kurdish politician. The politician was placed behind bars in November 2016, and if convicted, could face 142 years in prison. The charges leveled against him are being a leader of a terrorist organization, an accusation Demirtaş has denied.

There is also the case of Can Atalay, the newly elected member of parliament, representing the Workers Party, who remains behind bars, despite Atalay’s lawyers’ attempts to free him. All newly elected parliament members are expected to attend the swearing-in ceremony on June 2.

Journalists Union of Turkey (TGS) President Gökhan Durmuş was closely watching the President’s victory speech and released a statement expressing his concern about the divisive nature of the next government and the implications on press freedom in the country.

However, in an atmosphere where the society is divided exactly in two, it will only be possible to continue to be in power by continuing the oppressive policies. And President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has already signaled to the whole society in his balcony speech that this will be their choice.

The future of the opposition alliance

While at first, it was unclear what will happen to the opposition alliance, also known as the Table of Six, the past few days indicate divisions within the group. Uğur Poyraz, the Secretary General of the IYI Party and one of the members of the Table of Six said on June 1, “The name of this alliance is the electoral alliance; when the election is over, the alliance will also disappear. As of May 28, the electoral alliance ended.” But not all members of the alliance share the same sentiments. In a video address shared via Twitter, the leader of Gelecek Party Ahmet Davutoğlu encouraged supporters of the alliance “not to fall into despair or possible provocations,” adding, that those who supported the ruling government and its alliance did so not because they accepted the status quo but due to an environment of fear.

Other members of the alliance, such as the leader of the Felicity party Temel Karamollaoğlu took it to Twitter, where he criticized the ruling government for the polarization, asking whether it was all worth it. “Was it really worth it, declaring half of our nation ‘terrorists, enemies of religion, traitors,’ in return for this result you have achieved? Was it worth all the lies, slander, and insults,” wrote Karamollaoğlu.

The latter was also reflected in a joint statement issued by the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR), the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly (OSCE PA), and the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) observers:

The second round of Türkiye’s presidential election was characterized by increasingly inflammatory and discriminatory language during the campaign period. Media bias and ongoing restrictions to freedom of expression created an unlevel playing field, and contributed to an unjustified advantage of the incumbent.

The blame game

Many blamed the opposition alliance and its leader for failing to secure victory in these elections but according to Gönül Tol, the founding director of the Middle East Institute’s Turkey program and a senior fellow with the Black Sea Program it is not as simple as that and that fear factor played a significant role. In a Twitter thread, Tol alluded to a handful of complexities that determined the outcomes of these elections. From elections being unfree and unfair, to both pro-democracy and President Erdoğan’s alliance having “existential anxieties,” with both sides seeing the elections “as a war of survival.”  Tol explained:

In such polarized contexts, people do not change their voting behavior easily based on policy preferences, incumbent’s performance or opposition’s promises. Going for the other guy rather than sticking with the devil you know is too big of a risk to take, especially in the face of such dramatic uncertainty. That is why Erdoğan continues to polarize the country.

As for the fear factor, Tol noted that President Erdoğan’s victory speech, was “the most aggressive” to date, “because that is how autocrats cling to power against unfavorable odds. They stoke fear and frame elections as a war for survival. That is how they prevent defections. That is how they can still muster majorities even when they fail to deliver.”

Writing for T24, academic and journalist Haluk Şahin explained that the outcomes of these elections were “determined not by economics and sociology, but by social psychology. In other words, a choice driven by subconscious and subconscious fears, identities, denials, jealousies, desires for worship, and ambitions to dominate.”

Others like political scientist Umut Özkırımlı explained that in order to “to topple an authoritarian regime at the ballot box” two things are needed, “sizeable electoral majorities” and “populist and ethnonationalist strategies” referring to an essay by Steven Levitsky and Lucan Way’s The New Competitive Authoritarianism. In the essay, the authors argue:

Tilting the playing field in countries such as Hungary, the Philippines, Turkey, and Venezuela requires greater skill, more sophisticated strategies, and far more extensive popular mobilization … Prospective autocrats must first command sizeable electoral majorities, and then deploy plebiscitarian or hypermajoritarian strategies to change the constitutional and electoral rules of the game so as to weaken opponents. This is often achieved via polarizing populist or ethnonationalist strategies.

With local elections months away (Turkey is to hold mayoral elections in March 2024) academic Orçun Selçuk said the opposition should stick to “playing the long game”:

Calls for solidarity

On the night of election, as Erdoğan supporters, roamed the streets of Turkey, celebrating into the early hours of the morning, the other half of the country, did not hesitate in shaking off the outcome and calling to keep on fighting.
 
Acclaimed musician, Fazil Say, tweeted on May 29, “No demoralizing, friends, let’s embrace life. Keep up the goodness. Life goes on, music goes on, the world goes on, endless continuation to create and produce beauty.”
 

Well-known entrepreneur Selçuk Gerger, posted on his Instagram, that despite all the struggle, things did not change. “As of today, I will continue to live as I was living in Istanbul in the previous months and years, without regrets or stepping aside. I will not give up even for a moment. We won’t hide. The majority of people born and who grew up in this country are on our side. And yes, today we are really just starting our fight. Let’s not get hide!”

Via Globalvoices.org

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Strong Showing for Erdogan sets up Turkish Run-Off Election for May 28 https://www.juancole.com/2023/05/showing-erdogan-election.html Sun, 21 May 2023 04:06:16 +0000 https://www.juancole.com/?p=212116
A small portrait of Arzu Geybullayeva

( Globalvoices.org ) – The results from the May 14 general elections in Turkey were a surprise for some, a disappointment for others, and for those who rallied behind President Erdoğan and his coalition, a victory. These elections also showed how the main opposition coalition underestimated the societal split and the priorities that mattered — nationalism, big infrastructure projects, identity, religion, and security, to name a few. The financial crisis, graft, deterioration of rights and freedoms, as well as mishandling of the devastating February 6 earthquake did not matter in the end — especially as eight of eleven provinces affected by twin earthquakes backed President Erdoğan in the presidential votes.

The results were also a testament to the ruling state benefiting from the full control of the media landscape  — “for comparison, Erdoğan got 32 hours of air time on state TV compared with 32 minutes for Kilicdaroglu,” wrote journalist Amberin Zaman — making it much harder for the opposition to reach those who remained undecided or voters who were skeptical of their promises in the run-up to the election. This was also reflected in a statement by the International Election Observation Mission, according to which, “Public broadcasters clearly favored ruling parties and candidates.”

But the outcomes of the May 14 vote reflect more than just an uneven playing field. In fact, many observers got it wrong, as well as the pollsters, the opposition coalition itself, and the opposition’s presidential candidate, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who, on the night of the election, tweeted:

We are leading.

On May 14, the numbers shared by the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) party indicated that Kılıçdaroğlu was clearly leading in the polls. But the enthusiasm of Ekrem İmamoğlu and Mansur Yavaş — the municipal mayors of Istanbul and Ankara, respectively — who appeared on television screens in the first hours of the polls assuring voters that the opposition coalition and Kılıçdaroğlu were leading in the polls, disappeared as hours went on.

It turned out there were discrepancies. For that, Onursal Adıgüzel, the party’s vice president who was also responsible for ballot box data entry, was let go. It turned out the algorithmic system used to count votes was faulty — it was missing input from 20,000 polling stations where the CHP did not have observers, according to the findings of journalist Nevşin Mengü.

The disappointment among opposition supporters was short-lived especially as reports of voter fraud began to galvanize the momentum needed to ensure a second round of presidential voting.

Starting on May 16, a hashtag on Turkish Twitter space was trending, #OylarYenidenSayilsin as reports of massive fraud in processing election results started trickling in. In some cases, the votes for the opposition party CHP and its ally Iyi Parti were dismissed by the Supreme Election Council (YSK) while in others, it was clear that votes for the opposition coalition were transferred to the parties within the ruling alliance.

At the time of writing this story, YSK is yet to announce the official results of the election.


Via Pixabay

In a series of tweets, academic Timur Kuran attempted to explain what was happening:

Kuran also urged the High Election Council or the Supreme Election Council (YSK) to “investigate who voted and how results from local polling stations compared with those in its own database.”

Like many others, local columnist Can Atakli was also concerned about fraud on election night. He found it suspicious when YSK chief Ahmet Yener, during his third appearance on television, announced a sudden jump in the difference between votes for Erdoğan vs. Kılıçdaroğlu — 49.5 percent vs. 45 percent respectively.  

In total, out of  201,807 ballot boxes in the race, objections were made over the results from 2,269.

The discrepancies and CHP’s weaknesses in vote count led volunteers to offer their support in the second round:

I am ready to assist the team of Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the Presidential Candidate of the National Alliance, for statistical simulation, data analysis and campaign communication in the second round. (Here are) my diplomas. Everything is going to be beautiful.

Grandfather ask us for help; what do you need? Observer, IT person, social media person, advertiser, graphic designer, influencer? We’ll be crowding at your door.

If you have those around you thinking ‘man, its not worth it. I will move on. Or better yet move abroad,’ tell them this. There wont be a life like that. You may not even find a small sea shore cottage to hide at. As for moving abroad — its not as easy as you may think. You will burn on the inside every day.

According to YSK data, out of 64,190,651 registered voters, 53,993,714 voted in total. Among them were 4,904,672 first-time voters. With over 3.5 million registered overseas voters, 1,416,000 voted at the end. The turnout was the highest from all previous elections, with official numbers indicating a 88.92 percent voter turnout. In previous general elections held in 2018, this number was 86.24 percent. Historically Turkey has a high voter turnout. Many analysts say this is largely because elections are the only remaining democratic institution where people can influence the country.

What’s next

Since neither of the leading presidential candidates was able to secure over 50 percent of the vote, the country is headed to a run-off scheduled for May 28, which will also be the first time Turkey will have a run-off presidential vote under the country’s new electoral system. Many observers and pundits view the chance of the second round as a positive development for President Erdoğan.

Meanwhile, while the ruling government coalition secured 323 parliament seats out of 600, it still lacks the majority it needs to, say, introduce constitutional changes, which require 360 votes. There are fears that some of the newly elected members of the parliament represented among the opposition coalition may switch sides, especially as many of them are former members of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) or the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). It remains to be seen whether this will actually happen in the weeks and months to come. 

As for election propaganda in the next round, there are notable differences in the tone of the political messaging. In a video shared by Kılıçdaroğlu on May 17, the 74-year-old presidential candidate looked tired but still determined to win the second round. As explained by academic Timur Kuran:

Kılıçdaroğlu and his opposition alliance must also take into account what may have prevented more support in the previous round. According to columnist Atakli, it was not that the voters who supported the ruling government coalition agreed with theft. “Societies pushed into poverty and ignorance believe they cannot prevent theft,” wrote Atakli. Moreover, Kılıçdaroğlu accused some powerful people of graft — people who employ tens of thousands of people who think they might soon find themselves unemployed if Kılıçdaroğlu won and went after these business owners. Others, like journalist Ismail Saymaz say people believed the AKP propaganda that the opposition was in cohorts with apparent terrorist groups like the Kurdish Worker’s Party (PKK). In this case, according to Saymaz, Kılıçdaroğlu and his team must break this cycle in less than ten days.

But addressing people’s needs is not the only item on the to-do list. According to journalist Murat Aksoy, the opposition must have observers at each polling station to ensure the safety of the ballot box. It will also have to convince its voters to go back to the ballot boxes as well as some 8.5 million voters who did not vote in this election at all.

Scores of Turks, took to social media platforms, reminding peers to show up on May 28 and help shift the tides if not for their own future then at least for a 20-year-old Kübra Ergin, who committed suicide two days after election. In a note Ergin left behind, the young woman said, “I’m tired. They stole my youth. As a woman, I have never felt free. Because of the people of this country, I could not live my childhood, and I could not live my youth.”

Via Globalvoices.org

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In Turkey, Election Manipulation Abounded in the Run-up to Today’s Presidential Election https://www.juancole.com/2023/05/election-manipulation-presidential.html Sun, 14 May 2023 04:04:03 +0000 https://www.juancole.com/?p=211994

The opposition responded to the attacks with messages of unity


( Globalvoices.org ) – In Turkey, ahead of the country’s most important election in recent memory, being held today, Sunday May 14, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) seems to be resorting to foul play and tricks to steer the votes in their favor. There are fake stickers, physical violence, dark web rumors, manipulated videos, accusations, misinformation, anti-LGBTQ+ sentiments, and media oppression, to name a few. If this was a circus show, the magician on stage could certainly pull out a few surprises to keep its spectators entertained, but on Turkey’s political stage, incumbent president Recep Tayyip Erdoğon and the AKP are running out of tricks.

Playing the terrorist card

On May 7, as Erdoğan stood on stage at a pre-election rally in Istanbul, a video played on a large screen beside him linking his main rival in this election, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, to the Kurdish nationalist Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK), a designated terrorist group. As the video started playing, Erdoğan addressed the crowd of supporters who gathered at the former international passenger Ataturk Airport, “[they] are walking shoulder [to] shoulder with the PKK. You, my national and local citizen, will you vote for them?”

But the video was fake. Fact-checkers debunked the video and proved its content had been manipulated.

The video combines the official campaign video released by the opposition alliance showing Kılıçdaroğlu calling on Turks, “come on, lets go to the ballot box together,” standing next to Kılıçdaroğlu in the video is the current mayor of Ankara and Istanbul. Behind the three men are a group of people. The manipulated video shows a close-up of Kılıçdaroğlu from the same video; only the original video ends with the call, while the edited version on screen, continues to show another man on screen, Murat Karayilan, the founder of the PKK.


Istanbul, opposition rally ahead of the general elections scheduled for May 14. Image by Arzu Geybullayeva. Used with permission.

Last week, Kılıçdaroğlu warned the country’s voters of possible manipulations similar to Cambridge Analytica interference — where a political consulting company used illegally obtained Facebook data to launch smear campaigns on opposition politicians and sway election results in the US.

There are two days left until the final ten days [before the election]. Let me give my final warning. Fahrettin Altun, Serhat and their teammates Çağatay and Evren; The dark web world you are trying to deal with will lead you into the hands of foreign intelligence. Playing Cambridge Analytica is beyond your capacity, boys. THIS IS MY FINAL WARNING!

Kılıçdaroğlu’s warning was based on intelligence received by his Republican People’s (CH) party, reported online media platform Medyascope. According to the intelligence, the ruling party planned “to use ‘deep fake’ style videos and sound recordings, as well as Cambridge Analytica-style techniques in the last 10 days leading up to the election, with the goal of tanking Kılıçdaroğlu’s campaign just before voters go to the polls,” reported Medyascope. According to the same intelligence, the Directorate of Communications and its head, Fahrettin Altun, were the masterminds of the campaign.

In response to the accusations, Altun tweeted, “We trust our leader and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. We are working for the ideal of the Turkish Century. We fight against disinformation, which we see as one of the biggest enemies of democracy, and inform the national and international public in an accurate, fast, and transparent manner.”

But Kılıçdaroğlu also hinted that the Directorate of Communications had hired an international team, paid in bitcoin, and ordered his team to produce a series of deep fakes of the opposition presidential candidate days ahead of the election. Speaking to the host of a show on Fox Haber channel, the main opposition (CHP) Izmir deputy Tuncay Özkan elaborated further on the party head’s suspicions. “There are names, it’s all rather clear. [We know] who is doing it and what they plan to do. [We know the plan is] to manipulate visuals and audio of our esteemed leader,” explained Özkan.

Earlier, CHP was branded a PKK supporter through a sticker campaign that was orchestrated by the ruling party youth branch, according to internal party investigations. The stickers with the CHP logo read, “When we come to power, we are going to release Apo,” referring to Abdullah Öcalan, the jailed leader of the PKK.

The terrorism accusations leveled against the opposition are not new. In December 2021, the Ministry of the Interior shared a tweet claiming it had identified over 500 municipality employees and related companies with connections to Kurdish militants, leftists, and other controversial groups. In what critics have described as a boost to systematic censorship and a threat to freedom of speech, with disastrous consequences ahead of Turkey’s 2023 election, in October 2022, Turkish lawmakers approved a law on disinformation. Among a number of concerning new restrictions in the bill, such as mandatory content removal, violations of user privacy, further platform regulation measures, and more. Then there is Article 29, which states that “anyone publicly distributing false information on Turkey’s domestic and external security, public order and welfare could face between one and three years in jail for instigating concern, fear and panic in society, faces imprisonment from one and up to three years.” The new restrictions went into effect on October 18, 2022.

On May 10, watchdogs ARTICLE 19 and Human Rights Watch warned that the May 14 elections were taking place “in an environment of intensified centralized control and erosion of fundamental rights and the rule of law, with the Erdoğan government wielding its formidable powers to muzzle media and detain or sideline perceived critics and political opponents.” With thousands of journalists, political opponents, and others prosecuted “for criticizing the president and the government online or even just sharing or liking critical articles on social media,” in the course of the past nine years. They added, “as election day approaches there is concern the government will exert its considerable control over the digital ecosystem to shape the outcome of the election.”

According to reporting by local news agencies, the ruling government was planning to hang PKK banners with the CHP logo across 81 provinces. The CHP said they were taking all of the recent targeting campaigns to the Supreme Election Board (YSK).

Meanwhile, Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu recently claimed that the West was attempting to orchestrate a coup in Turkey via the upcoming elections. Speaking at the Istanbul Foundation for Science and Culture on April 27, Soylu said, “May 14 (the election date) is a political coup attempt by the West. It is a coup attempt that can be initiated by bringing together each of the preparations to purge Turkey on May 14.” The minister’s words worried many voters and pundits alike and prompted fears that the ruling government may not accept the election results if they are defeated.

Playing the LGBTQ+ card

If it isn’t terrorism, then it’s anti-LGBTQ+ narratives on full display. At the same rally where Erdoğan showed manipulated video of Kılıçdaroğlu, he accused the opposition coalition of being “pro-LGBT.” Adding, the “AK Party and other parties in our alliance would never be pro-LGBT, because family is sacred to us. We will bury those pro-LGBT in the ballot box.” Last week, he said in a tweet, “the LGBTQ community was the strongest current threatening the future of Western nations.”

Resorting to homophobic narratives in the election is an attempt to stir up and unite the conservative voter base, explained Damla Umut Uzun, a campaigner with the Turkish LGBTQ+ rights organization Kaos GL, in an interview with the Middle East Eye.

And the hateful rhetoric extends past Erdoğan. The country’s minister of the interior said earlier this month that LGBTQ+ “also includes marriage between animals and humans.”

On May 1, Turkey’s Justice Minister, Bekir Bozdağ, claimed there were attempts to “legitimize and normalize LGBT and many perversions. It is the primary duty of states to protect every member of society against negativities, against deviant and perverted understandings.”

The jingoism is fueling an environment of violence in the meantime. On May 8, Istanbul’s mayor campaign bus was pelted with stones at a pre-election rally in Turkey’s Erzurum province. Police stood idly while people were getting injured as a result of the attack. After the incident, Istanbul’s Mayor told journalists that police were ordered not to intervene, calling the act a disgrace for the local provincial mayor and the governor. In an interview with KRT television on May 5, Kılıçdaroğlu warned the supporters of the opposition alliance to stay home on election night because “some people might stir trouble, some people may be provoked, armed elements may take the streets.” In March, the building of one of the political parties within the opposition coalition was targeted in an armed attack.

But despite the violent language and physical attacks, the opposition coalition continues to speak of unity. At an opposition rally in Istanbul, instead of divisive language, there were calls to avoid tension. Similarly, speaking to supporters in Turkey’s province of Konya, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu said, “There will be those who will try to provoke you. … Let them throw stones. We will counter with roses.”

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Many Female Voters see Turkey’s May 14 Elections as Crucial to Future of Women’s Rights https://www.juancole.com/2023/04/turkeys-elections-crucial.html Fri, 21 Apr 2023 04:04:44 +0000 https://www.juancole.com/?p=211489

The ruling AKP leadership’s backslide on women’s rights has not gone unnoticed

 

( Globalvoices.org) – In a report that was published in 2007 by European Stability Initiative, a think tank, Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) was hailed for bringing about reforms to empower women since coming to power in 2002. “If this report had been written in 1999, the year Turkey gained the status of candidate for EU membership, its conclusions would have been deeply pessimistic. Writing in 2007, however, the perspective shifts dramatically,” wrote the authors of the report. Citing amendments to the Turkish Constitution, a new civil code, reforms to the employment law, the establishment of family courts, and a reformed penal code, the authors argued these reforms brought “comprehensive changes to the legal status of women” and that these were “the most radical reforms since the abolition of polygamy in the 1920s.” That 2007 report is drastically different from Turkey’s gender landscape in 2023. And in the lead-up to Turkey’s general election on May 14 and mounting political polarization, women have a lot to lose if the AKP remains in power.

The AKP has taken a number of controversial stances against gender equality in recent years. The ruling party has proposed limiting abortion rights, the morning-after pill, and cesarean sections. AKP leader President Erdoğan himself once suggested women can’t be equal to men, that women must be mothers, and that families should have a minimum of three children. In 2012, then-prime minister Erdoğan equated abortion to murder.

And while pregnancy terminations are still legal in Turkey until the 10th week of pregnancy and up to the 20th in cases of medical risk, finding hospitals that will carry out the procedure has become practically impossible. In 2014, Erdoğan accused feminists of not understanding motherhood. Speaking at a summit in Istanbul, he reportedly said, “Some people can understand this, while others can’t. You cannot explain this to feminists because they don’t accept the concept of motherhood.” He has also said that gender equality was “against human nature” and that working women were “deficient.” Most recently, in January 2023, Turkey’s state religious body, which has targeted women in the past, has said that women cannot travel alone.

Image by Emir Eğricesu. Free to use under Unsplash License.

Questionable alliances

In the run-up to the election, the AKP and its leader have made alliances with numerous parties looking to dismantle women’s rights in the country, including lifting Law 6284, which protects women against domestic violence. Alarmed by the alliance, imprisoned former co-leader of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), Selahattin Demirtaş said in an article penned from jail that if the coalition, which he describes as the “most right-wing and the most reactionary bloc in the political history of Turkey,” wins, it is likely the last election in which women could vote “because the Taliban Alliance will roll up its sleeves to usurp the rights of women.”

Even the AKP’s own female members protested against scrapping Law 6284. In a tweet Minister of Family and Social Services Derya Yanık said,

    “Law No. 6284 was one of the most important legal regulations that we (AKP) undertook in the struggle against violence towards women.” Joining Yanık was Özlem Zengin, the group deputy chairperson who also spoke out in defense of Law 6284. Both women were targeted over their statements in support of the law and were largely sidelined by their own party members. In an interview with pro-government A-Haber, Zengin said it has become impossible to discuss women’s issues among party members. “I have received hundreds of messages on my phone with threats,” explained Zengin.

According to Anit Sayac (Turkish for “monument tracker”), a platform that documents cases of violence against women, 397 women died as a result of violence in 2022.

To combat these regressive policies, an opposition block, known as Table of Six, has formed to challenge the ruling government in the upcoming election.

Among the members of the coalition block is the center-right Democracy and Progress (DEVA) party, spearheaded by Turkey’s former member of the AKP government, Ali Babacan. His party pledged to recommit to the Istanbul Convention which Turkey left in 2021, and also fight against early marriage and child abuse, both of which are significant problems in Turkey.

Though Turkey’s Workers Party (TIP)  is not part of the official coalition, it has expressed support for the leader of the opposition block and the presidential candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, and  pledged to be the voice of women and LGBTQ+ people.

Kılıçdaroğlu himself announced ten policies the coalition intends to implement following its victory to help women in Turkey, including furthering equal employment opportunities, lifting barriers for women entrepreneurs, strengthening social benefits for housewives, increasing the number of kindergartens, and more.

When will enough be enough?

The AKP leadership’s regressing stance on women’s rights has not gone unnoticed. Turkish newspaper Evrensel interviewed a number of women in the province of Kocaeli, where they shared their concerns about the future. “I don’t want to be concerned about the future of my child,” said Nazli. Meanwhile, Sevda said she, too, was concerned about the future of her daughter. “I am raising a daughter. She will be going to university eventually. It is clear she won’t be safe under the current leadership. That is why I want a government where my daughter will be safe,” said Sevda. “Who knows what they are going to do once they are re-elected with those [parties] by their side? They may say women should stay home altogether,” said Gül, a mother of two.

That backslide is also reflected in the Global Gender Gap Index Report by the World Economic Forum. According to the Forum’s most recent report from 2022, Turkey ranked 124th among 146 countries researched. And although the country has made strides since 2021, when the country was ranked 133rd, there has been an overall decline since 2006, when Turkey was ranked 105th.

There is also the issue of women as political candidates in the upcoming elections. In an interview with Euractiv, Nuray Karaoğlu, who heads the Turkish Association for Supporting Women Candidates (KA.DER), discriminatory masculine attitudes within the political space are making politics less safe for women. According to the data from 2021 by one of Turkey’s fact-checking platforms Veri Kaynagi, the percentage of women candidates in elections held in 2015, 2016, and 2018 was below 30 percent. This year, once all 26 parties submitted their candidate lists, the breakdown doesn’t look any better, ranging from 19 percent female candidates from the AKP to 40.5 percent from the Workers Party (TİP). Feminist activists have criticized the numbers, which remain low despite attempts by groups like KA.DER or Ben Seçerim (I choose) to advocate for women candidates.

Despite the low number of candidates, it was the women who played a key role in AKP coming to power, and it will be the women who will play a key role in ousting the party, wrote seasoned journalist Murat Yetkin in his column. “When AKP came to power in November 2002, nearly 55 percent, more than half of the votes it received, were from women,” wrote Yetkin. But gradually, these women realized that Erdoğan was no charismatic leader they thought him to be,” according to Yetkin.

Whether the more than 30 million eligible women voters realize that their futures will be highly affected if the ruling party stays in power will become clear on March 14.

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In Turkey, will one man continue to rule them all? The May 14th elections hold the answer https://www.juancole.com/2023/04/turkey-continue-elections.html Mon, 10 Apr 2023 04:04:39 +0000 https://www.juancole.com/?p=211260

The future of Turkey and its citizens is at stake.

 

( Globalvoices.org) – May 14 will go down in the history of Turkish Republic as one of the most important elections to date. The stakes are high, and there is a growing sense among the general public that if the current leadership stays in power, the country’s future is grim and uncertain. There is talk of Turkey turning into a Taliban-style theocracy, while others debate whether the country can weather even one more term under the current autocracy. The importance of the upcoming elections rests on the ruling party of Justice and Development (AKP), which has upended democratic norms and values in recent years. Under the AKP, Turkey has curtailed freedom of expression, media plurality, human rights, art and music, women’s rights, and more, largely at the whim of one man — President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. After twenty years in power and consecutive election victories (two presidential races, three referendums, five parliamentary elections, minus the municipal elections in 2019) since 2002, the fate of the ruling party and its leaders is on the table, but so is the future of Turkey and its citizens.

Candidates, alliances, legions


ISTANBUL, TURKIYE – APRIL 09: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan attends the Pendik Municipality Mass Opening Ceremony in Istanbul, Turkiye on April 09, 2023. (Photo by Serhat Cagdas/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

As of March 28, there are four presidential candidates in the race (out of 18 original applicants). In Turkish elections, various political parties often form alliances with each other to consolidate their voter base. The four candidates are incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (despite the earlier claims that his candidacy was unlawful) representing the ruling People’s Alliance; Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the candidate from the united opposition front (known as Table of Six) representing the Nation Alliance; Muharrem Ince (former member of the main opposition Republican People (CH) party and 2018 presidential candidate) from the Homeland party; and Sinan Oğan representing the ATA Alliance.

The People’s Alliance has gotten both official and unofficial support from nationalist parties, the ultra-Islamist Kurdish Free Cause Party (Huda-Par), also known as the successor of Hezbollah, as well as parties known for their anti-LGBTQ+ stance and questionable views on women’s rights. For instance, one supporter, the New Welfare Party called to amend Law 6284 on the prevention of violence against women and children and close down LGBTQ+ clubs in the country. According to journalist Ismail Saymaz, the party had some 30 conditions prior to throwing its support behind the ruling alliance.

Image by Reza Ghasemi. Free to use under Unsplash license.

Imprisoned former co-leader of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), Selahattin Demirtaş described the coalition as a “kind of Taliban alliance” in an article he penned from jail. Writing for an online news platform Arti Gelecek, Demirtaş warned that the current alliance is the “most right-wing and the most reactionary bloc in the political history of Turkey.” He added that if they win, it is likely the last election in which women could vote “because the Taliban Alliance will roll up its sleeves to usurp the rights of women.”

On the other end is the multi-faceted Nation Alliance. They promise to bolster Turkey’s parliamentary system, establish limits on presidential powers, and plan to address economic and societal grievances. The alliance is supported by at least another three political parties who did not join the alliance officially but have expressed support.

Another party with a significant voter base, the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), announced they were not planning on nominating a candidate but, rather, would join forces with other progressive parties to get rid of the current administration. “We will fulfill our historical responsibility toward the one-man rule in the presidential elections,” said Pervin Buldan, the HDP co-chair.

The move was seen as a “major boost to Kılıçdaroğlu’s electoral chances against Erdoğan,” wrote journalist Ezgi Akin for AlMonitor. The party’s voter base, which makes up some 6 million supporters — 10–13 percent of the total vote count — can play a key role in gathering support for Kılıçdaroğlu just as they did during the municipal elections in 2019. Speaking to AlMonitor, associate professor of political science at Istanbul’s Sabanci University Berk Esen said this was “a very critical move. Following this statement, a bloc vote of at least eight or nine points will go to Kılıçdaroğlu.”

It is unclear what Ince, who is running against the president for a second time, represents. In an interview with AFP, analyst Serkan Demirtas said, “[Ince] says he’s against Erdoğan, and he’s also against Kılıçdaroğlu, but what does he represent? We don’t know.” What is known, however, is that Ince’s bid in the race would likely serve Erdoğan as Ince is “unlikely to steal from the ruling party’s votes,” according to journalist Deniz Zeyrek and instead lure in the potential voters from the main opposition alliance according to Emre Perek, of Eurasia Group. So far, Ince has made a name for himself for his dance moves which have become a social media phenomenon. In an interview with AFP, Berk Esen said, “he seems to be especially popular with Gen-Z voters who can be easily swayed by anti-status quo candidates.”

On March 29, Kılıçdaroğlu had a meeting with Ince, who told journalists after the meeting that he was determined to stay in the race.

In total, 36 political parties were officially approved for the May 14 election, as voters will not only be choosing the next president but also the lawmakers. Two additional alliances, the Labor and Freedom Alliance and the Socialist Union of Forces, will run for the parliamentary seats. Although neither of these two alliances nominated individual presidential candidates, both expressed support for the opposition Nation Alliance. Turkey’s parliament, the Grand National Assembly, consists of 600 seats. Currently, the ruling party and its ally, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), hold the majority.

The stakes

Before Turkey was hit with a devastating earthquake on February 6, chances for Erdoğan’s re-election and his coalition maintaining a majority in the parliament were rather high. The earthquake, however, changed the game, exposing the grave consequences of one-man rule, the weakened institutions, the extent of corruption, and the government’s inability to swiftly intervene during a crisis — all as a result of Erdoğan’s twenty years in power.

Kılıçdaroğlu, who was the first party leader to visit the earthquake provinces accused both president and the ruling party of exacerbating the destruction and failing to prepare in a video message following his visit.

There is also economic instability as the country battles rampant inflation while Turks are facing a cost-of-living crisis. In a bid to sway votes in its favor, in March, the ruling party announced its decision to raise the monthly minimum pension to TRY 7,500 (USD 391) from TRY 5,500 (USD 260), a move that will cost state coffers TRY 150 billion (USD 7 .86 billion) according to reporting by Reuters. In December 2022, minimum wages were also increased to TRY 8,500 (USD446), a third such increase in 2022. Millions of Turks were also made eligible for early retirement in another face-saving measure. But none of these measures are sustainable. Speaking to The Economist, Selva Demiralp of Istanbul’s Koc University, said, “They’re trying to sustain the current system until the elections, before it blows up.”

There is plenty of foreign policy trouble too. As Elçin Poyrazlar wrote in his most recent Politico column, the incumbent’s departure would be a relief for an “increasingly frustrated” West. “In the past months alone, Turkey has quietly provided Russia with clandestine trade routes to beat sanctions, imposed a veto on Sweden’s entry into NATO and engaged Greece in high-risk brinkmanship with fighter jets over the Aegean.”

The opposition and independent civil society watchdogs expect voter fraud in the upcoming election. This is especially a problem in the areas hit by the earthquake. “We need to know how the ballot boxes and voters’ lists from the earthquake region will be organized,” said an opposition CHP official in an interview with Politico. Some 3.3 million people are estimated to be displaced as a result of the earthquake. This concern makes the security of the ballot even more pertinent. As one political researcher told Politico, “Kılıçdaroğlu is not only competing against Erdoğan but also against the state’s security, judiciary, and financial apparatus under his control.”

In addition to the security of the ballots and the fate of millions of displaced voters from the earthquake provinces come May 14, the overall transparency of the election is at stake.

With the unchecked powers vested in the ruling government, its ruling Justice and Development party may not even need conventional corruption tools of ballot stuffing or incorrect tallying. It has election officials in its pocket and the media too, thanks to the new online censorship and disinformation laws. In 2019, during the municipal elections, election officials attempted to overturn the results of the Istanbul mayoral race after the ruling party lost its seats to the opposition candidates. The re-run of the election resulted in another defeat for the ruling party, with Ekrem İmamoglu winning the election for a second time.

In its 2023 World Report, the international human rights watchdog Human Rights Watch said, “Turkey’s government has increased its censorship powers and targeted perceived critics and opponents with bogus criminal proceedings and prison sentences in advance of 2023 presidential and parliamentary elections.”

Following the devastating earthquake, the ruling government also did not shy away from censorship in order to save face amid growing criticism. It is also not clear how millions of university students who were forced to switch to online education as part of the government measures introduced after the earthquake will cast their votes. If universities re-open and students return to their campuses, it may be difficult for them to return to their home districts where they are registered to vote ahead of election day — especially given increased travel costs. The Council of Higher Education (YÖK) is yet to announce whether universities will re-open for face-to-face education come April. Officially the deadline to make changes to the address is April 2, but a lack of clarity from YÖK has left students undecided about whether to change their residency addresses or not.

“Spring will come again”

This is what Kılıçdaroğlu promises in his new campaign video that draws attention to a number of issues the country struggled with in the past years and months. For instance, in one of the segments, there is the campus of Boğaziçi University, which has been protesting the appointment of the government trustee as the rector for over two years now. There are also references to football stadiums that have recently come under scrutiny as well as performances by artists. “We are coming for a Turkey that can sing its most beautiful songs loudly and whose joy can be seen in the eyes of its children. I promise you that spring will come again. Mr. Kemal will not break his promise,” Kılıçdaroğlu vows in the video. With a little more than forty days left and Turkey weathering an unseasonably cold winter, it is not just good weather people are looking forward to but also a new political chapter to mark the beginning of spring.

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