Juan Cole – Informed Comment https://www.juancole.com Thoughts on the Middle East, History and Religion Thu, 21 Nov 2024 07:03:59 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=5.8.10 Pope Francis Calls for Painstaking Investigation into Whether Israeli War on Gaza is a Genocide https://www.juancole.com/2024/11/painstaking-investigation-genocide.html Thu, 21 Nov 2024 05:15:07 +0000 https://www.juancole.com/?p=221639 Ann Arbor (Informed Comment) – Pope Francis has a new book, Hope never disappoints. Pilgrims towards a better world. The English version is not out yet, but I was able to find the Italian. It calls for an investigation into whether the Israeli war on Gaza is a genocide.

The Pope mentions Gaza on several occasions in the book. At one point he expresses concern about migration crises around the world, colored as they are by “violence and hardship,” in the Sahara, the Mexican-US border, and the Mediterranean, “which has become a large cemetery in the past decade.” He adds, “also in the Middle East,” because of the “humanitarian tragedy” in Gaza.

Pope Francis says that Christians must feel the pain of migrants forced to leave their homes, noting that for many it is easier to empathize with the hopes of an entrepreneur who emigrates to found a business or a retiree who goes abroad to make their pension stretch further than with the hopes of refugees forced abroad by violence or famine, seeking a more peaceful existence.

He makes an interesting point here. I wonder if the difference is agency. We see ourselves in persons who take decisive steps to achieve a goal, but are alienated from those who are forced to do something against their will. Those with agency are admirable to us, are self, while those deprived of it are lesser and Other. I tell my students that they think of becoming a refugee as something that happens to others, but it can happen to anyone. I was trying to study in Beirut in my youth when war broke out and I had to flee to Jordan. My money was frozen in the bank because the banks all closed when war broke out. A kind man, at the American University of Beirut, Dean Robert Najemy, arranged for my parents to wire me airfare. He was later killed by a gunman. Of course, I wasn’t a refugee the way the Palestinians are — I still had my homeland and could ultimately return there. But I gained sympathy regarding those who suddenly have to abandon their domiciles. I don’t think of them as lacking agency or being Other, which I hope comes through in my new book on Gaza.

The Catholic leader laments that so many Ukrainians have been forced to flee, and praises countries that took them in, such as Poland. He then turns to the Middle East, where, he says, we have seen something similar. He praises the way Jordan and Lebanon welcomed refugees. He was obviously writing before mid-September, when Lebanon got caught up in the Israel-Hezbollah feud. Some 1.5 million Syrians had taken refuge in Lebanon from the Syrian civil war. Ironically, hundreds of thousands of Syrians and Lebanese have fled this fall to Syria. Jordan took in so many Palestinian families that a majority of Jordanians today have Palestinian ancestry. Jordan also took in hundreds of thousands of Iraqis and Syrians.

Francis said he was thinking especially of those who leave Gaza in the midst of the famine that has hit the Strip. We think about 100,000 Palestinians from Gaza managed to flee to Egypt before Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu occupied the Rafah crossing with Israeli troops.

Then Pope Francis dropped his bombshell. According to some experts, he wrote, “what has been happening in Gaza has the characteristics of a genocide.”

He insisted that a painstaking investigation be carried out to determine whether the situation fits the technical definition formulated by jurists and international organizations. He is likely referring to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court and the Genocide Convention of 1948, on the basis of which the International Court of Justice is deliberating on whether what the Israelis are doing in Gaza is a genocide.

Although he appeals to international law in this passage, he is pessimistic that war is ever compatible with it. Elsewhere in the book he points out that no war avoids indiscriminately killing civilians. He recalls the images we have all seen coming out of Ukraine and Gaza. “We cannot,” he says, “allow the killing of defenseless civilians.” These are war crimes. Inflicting wounds on these innocents to the point where they have to have limbs amputated or their natural environment is destroyed cannot be dismissed, he says, as mere “collateral damage.” “They are,” he asserts, “victims whose innocent blood cries out to heaven and begs for an end to all war.”


“Pietà,” Digital, Midjourney / Clip2Comic, 2024

His last mention of Gaza comes in a passage where he recalls a photograph of a Palestinian grandmother in Gaza, her face not visible, holding in her arms the lifeless body of her five-year-old granddaughter, who had just been killed in an Israeli bombing, along with other family members. He notes that the image has been called “The Pieta of Gaza.”

The Encyclopedia Britannica explains, “Pietà, as a theme in Christian art, depiction of the Virgin Mary supporting the body of the dead Christ. . . . the great majority show only Mary and her Son. The Pietà was widely represented in both painting and sculpture, being one of the most poignant visual expressions of popular concern with the emotional aspects of the lives of Christ and the Virgin.”


Michaelangelo, “Pietà,” Public Domain.

He says that the photo, taken in a hospital morgue, conveys strength, sorrow and the unimaginable pain inflicted by war. He ends by again insisting that innocents must be protected even in the midst of warfare, a principle, he says, that is engraved on the hearts of all people.

The consequence of the Pope’s comments throughout is a humanization of the Palestinians — a humanization of which US and British media outlets have largely proved themselves incapable. The only way they can be all right with over 17,000 dead children in Israel’s campaign against Gaza is that they do not see them as truly human. Otherwise, even the death of one little granddaughter would have us all weeping uncontrollably.

Not only does the Pope humanize Palestinian suffering, refusing to lose his empathy in the face of the magnitude of the slaughter and the sheer number of children in burial shrouds, but in a sense he even divinizes Palestinian suffering. The dead little girl in her grandma’s arms is a Christ-like figure — Christ-like in her innocence, which did not prevent her from being brutally killed. And the heart-wrenching mourning of her grandmother is like the grief of the Mother Mary over her crucified son, himself the incarnation on earth of the divine.

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Shamash! “Betrayal” https://www.juancole.com/2024/11/shamash-betrayal.html Thu, 21 Nov 2024 05:02:04 +0000 https://www.juancole.com/?p=221634 ]]> Panel #8

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Shamash! “The Leak” https://www.juancole.com/2024/11/shamash-the-leak.html Wed, 20 Nov 2024 05:02:35 +0000 https://www.juancole.com/?p=221613 ]]> Panel #7

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Shamash! Denial https://www.juancole.com/2024/11/shamash-denial.html Tue, 19 Nov 2024 05:02:47 +0000 https://www.juancole.com/?p=221598 ]]> Panel #6

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Morocco to double Green Energy in Sahara in anticipation of 2030 World Cup https://www.juancole.com/2024/11/morocco-double-anticipation.html Sun, 17 Nov 2024 05:15:40 +0000 https://www.juancole.com/?p=221562 Ann Arbor (Informed Comment) – The World Cup, disputed territory and green energy are three of the things that increasingly make the world go round, and they are coming together in Morocco. Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner is even in the background of it all.

Morocco’s Atalayer reports that Rabat will attempt to double sustainable energy generation in the Sahara by 2030.

What is so special about 2030? It is the soccer World Cup centenary, a World Cup for the ages. The first World Cup was held in Uruguay in 1930.

Spain, Portugal and Morocco jointly submitted the successful bid as hosts that year, with each country providing 6 or 7 stadiums. For Morocco, this success boosts its prestige in the Arab world and Africa. Countries fight tooth and nail over this honor. Qatar’s successful bid for the 2022 World Cup was one of the reasons Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates imposed an economic boycott on it 2017-2020. They were that jealous.

So Morocco wants literally to shine in 2030, by showing off its impressive progress toward greening its grid.

Morocco gets 44% of its electricity from renewables, up from 37% only 3 years ago. It has about 4.6 gigawatts of green energy.

About 1.3 GW of Morocco’s wind and solar plants are sited in the Western Sahara, a region Morocco absorbed in 1975-1979 when Spanish colonialism there ended. Some of the Amazigh tribes there had long ties with the Moroccan monarchy before the 1884 Spanish conquest. Some of the 600,000 people in Western Sahara, however, weren’t happy to become part of Morocco, and the POLISARIO party has long led a movement for independence.

But Morocco is a country of 38 million people, and its military is the 5th most powerful in Africa. So it has gradually made its claims stick, de facto. Moreover, most economists don’t consider the Western Sahara to have the makings of a viable independent country. What is important is that they have a democratic say in their own affairs.

Plus the Trump family helped the Moroccan government in this endeavor.

The Trump family?

Yes, Kushner persuaded Morocco to join the Abraham Accords recognizing Israel. In return, the United States recognized the Moroccan claim on the Western Sahara.

And now that it was the U.S. position, French President Emmanuel Macron swung around and also recognized the territory as Moroccan.

Billionaire Moroccan Prime Minister Aziz Akhannouch intends to install another 1.4 gigawatts of wind and solar capacity into the Sahara. Integrating the territory into the country’s green energy grid is one of the ways Rabat is weaving it into the fabric of the country’s economy.

Akhannouch will put $2.1 billion into these projects, and they will generate green energy jobs for the local population.

The entire episode demonstrates the ways in which renewable energy is increasingly intertwined with nation-building projects, with all their virtues and vices.

Bonus video added by Informed Comment:

The World’s Largest Concentrated Solar Power Plant | A Brief History of the Future | PBS

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Gaza as Israel’s AI-Driven High-Tech Genocide: UN https://www.juancole.com/2024/11/israels-driven-genocide.html Sat, 16 Nov 2024 05:15:15 +0000 https://www.juancole.com/?p=221544 Ann Arbor (Informed Comment) – A Special Committee of the United Nations Office of the High Commission on Human Rights has issued a new report on Israeli actions in Gaza concluding that they fit the profile of genocide.

The report says, “The developments in this report lead the Special Committee to conclude that the policies and practices of Israel during the reporting period are consistent with the characteristics of genocide.”

It goes on to specify: “The targeting of Palestinians as a group; the life – threatening conditions imposed on Palestinians in Gaza through warfare and restrictions on humanitarian aid – resulting in physical destruction, increased miscarriages and stillbirths – and the killing of and serious bodily or mental harm caused to Palestinians in Gaza and the occupied West Bank, including East Jerusalem, are violations under international law. Civilians have been indiscriminately and disproportionally killed en masse in Gaza . . . ”

Genocide as the term is used in contemporary International Humanitarian Law does not have the connotation of killing millions of people. It has become a technical term for trying to wipe out even a portion of a people simply because they belong to that people. Trying to prevent them from having children is one of the actions listed as indicating genocidal intent in the Rome Statute and the Genocide Convention. That is why the Special Committee mentions “increased miscarriages and stillbirths” happening as a result of Israeli actions in Gaza. It also talks about the “unchilding” of the 800,000 Palestinian minors in Gaza, who have been deprived of their childhoods and subjected to physical and emotional traumas that will scar them for the rest of their lives, making them prone to depression and other debilitating mental conditions.

One of the things that most alarmed the committee is the Israeli use of artificial intelligence for targeting, in ways that certainly increased the civilian death toll and showed a reckless disregard for civilian lives in direct contradiction of International Humanitarian Law.

It expressed grave concern over the unprecedented destruction of civilian infrastructure and the exceptionally high civilian death toll in Gaza. They said that this way of proceeding raised significant questions about Israel’s use of artificial intelligence to guide its military operations.

The Special Committee cited Israel’s +972 Magazine and The Guardian among other sources suggesting that the Israeli military lowered the thresholds for target selection and simultaneously increased the previously accepted ratio of civilian to combatant casualties. Yuval Abraham of +972 Magazine reported that the Israeli Rules of Engagement permitted the killing of 15 to 20 civilians for every militant killed. Those aren’t military Rules of Engagement, they are instructions for shooting fish in a barrel (my comment, not the UN’s).

The Special Committee observed, “These directives reportedly enabled the military to use artificial intelligence systems (which rely on mass surveillance to process large volumes of data), to rapidly generate tens of thousands of targets, as well as to track targets to their homes, particularly at night when families shelter together.”

And by the way, there was very little human supervision of these targeting decisions made by AI, which is known to have a 10% error rate. At 43,000 dead from drones and air strikes, 70% of them women and children, that could be 4,300 that were straight up errors having nothing to do with Hamas. Not that the children of Hamas members deserved to die when their father returned home in the evening. They were children.

They continued, “Reliance on the artificial intelligence-assisted targeting purportedly accelerated decision-making to the point of soldiers reportedly authorizing strikes in a matter of seconds, while the home-tracking of targets and night strikes would have disproportionately increased civilian casualties.”

They said that they were profoundly troubled by the indiscriminate loss of life reportedly caused by these AI-enhanced targeting mechanisms, noting that fatalities were multiplied because AI targeting was combined with explosive weaponry with wide-area effects.


“Lavender,” Digital, Dream / Dreamland v3 / Clip2Comic, 2024

The report concludes that Israel’s approach approach ignores Israel’s legal obligations under international humanitarian law to make a distinction between civilians and combatants and to implement sufficient safeguards to minimize harm to non-combatants.

The report concludes in this regard, “As stated by the High Commissioner for Human Rights, the requirement to select means and methods of warfare that avoid or at the very least minimise to every extent civilian harm appears to have been consistently violated in Israel’s bombing campaign.”

The Special Committee asserts that Gaza has become “unliveable” for Palestinians. It points to statements of UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres where he underlines that no justification exists for the collective punishment of the Palestinian population.

The report notes that Israel has not yet complied with Guterres’ call for a cease-fire, a call that has been reiterated in Security Council resolution 2735 (2024), and that the Israeli government has similarly ignored no less than three binding orders issued by the International Court of Justice.

In view of these persistent violations, the Special Committee aligns with the Secretary-General’s assessment that the humanitarian crisis unfolding in Gaza represents a moral failure that reflects poorly on humanity as a whole. They say, “In the light of those ongoing violations, the Special Committee shares the view of the Secretary-General that the humanitarian crisis has become a moral stain on us all.”

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China opens World’s Largest offshore Solar Power Facility, as U.S. Falls Farther Behind https://www.juancole.com/2024/11/largest-offshore-facility.html Fri, 15 Nov 2024 05:15:22 +0000 https://www.juancole.com/?p=221513 Ann Arbor (Informed Comment) – Solar panels are great sources of energy. We have them on our roof and they have saved us a lot of money, especially in spring-summer-fall. Some observers complain about their bulk compared to the energy they put out, though. I’ve had engineers argue to me that there just isn’t space for all the solar panels that would be needed to green the American energy grid.

Since I study the Middle East, I’ve had to learn about energy markets and security. One time about a decade ago I was doing some energy consulting with the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI). Japan had had to deal with the closure of many of its nuclear plants after the Fukishima disaster by importing Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) from the Middle East. They were nervous about the security of the region, though. I told my Japanese colleagues that they would be better off going in for wind and solar. One replied that Japan had very little land available for solar farms. I don’t know how sincere this reply was. I think those bureaucrats were just wedded to nuclear power. In fact, Japan now has over 87 gigawatts of solar power. It has been adding about 6 gigs of solar a year recently.

One solution to this problem that is increasingly being tried out is agrovoltaics, putting solar panels on farms but in such a way that they help crops grow. So far in the US, most agrovoltaic set-ups are for sheep raising, since grass can grow under the panels. In fact, the panels help the grass thrive in hot, sunny environments by providing shade and allowing retention of moisture, which is also good for “tomatoes, turnips, carrots, squash, beets, lettuce, kale, chard, and peppers.”

Solar panels are rapidly becoming more efficient, which will allow this form of energy to produce electricity while taking up less space.

In the meantime, another possible solution is to put the solar panels on floating platforms. Japan has put them on lakes, for instance.

The panel arrays can also be placed offshore. Fish and other marine life like structures such as the steel truss platform piling used for China’s offshore solar farms. It gives them places to hide from predators, e.g.

China is the most advanced solar society in the world with over 600 gigawatts of installed solar capacity, which saves the country billions of dollars a year over paying for imported fossil gas. The US is in comparison backward, only having about 130 GW of solar.

It is therefore no surprise that Beijing has, as Aman Tripathi reports, just connected to high capacity transmission wires the world’s large offshore solar plant off the coast of Shandong Province, a 1-gigawatt facility. The facility also does fish farming.

The nearly 3,000 photovoltaic platforms are attached to fixed pilings in the sea floor and are spread over an area of some 4 square miles. It will generate enough power to provide electricity to 2.6 million people.

And this installation is only the beginning. China is aiming to have 60 gigawatts of offshore solar in only 3 years from now — an incredible build-out if it happens.

China also already has 61 gigawatts of offshore wind capacity.

Wind, water, solar and battery are clearly the way forward on meeting the world’s power needs while avoiding massive carbon pollution. Solar plus battery in my view has the greatest potential over the medium to long term. The issue of where to put the PV panels is not in my view a very serious problem. If there is a will to use them to cut carbon dioxide production, as there is in China, then places will be found to put them — as China is demonstrating.

And by the way, if the US government under the incoming Trump administration puts roadblocks in the way of solar power, it will just accelerate American decline and help propel China further toward great power status. The future is solar panels and electric vehicles, and China is already eating our lunch on those two. If that goes on for a while, we’ll be poor, breathing dirty air, and paying trillions for climate catastrophes, while China replaces us as the world’s leading superpower.

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Bonus video added by Informed Comment:

News.Com.Au : “China’s Massive 1-gigawatt Offshore Solar Cell Platform Now Connected To The Grid”

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Shamash! “Crude Bane” https://www.juancole.com/2024/11/shamash-crude-bane.html Thu, 14 Nov 2024 05:00:22 +0000 https://www.juancole.com/?p=221501 I’m playing around with a climate-change superhero story. I’ll post panels when I can get to it. I’m using ChatGPT Consistent Character. It is an experiment. Those who are interested, read along! The story is “Crude Bane.”

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As COP 29 convenes, Human-Caused Climate Change Menaces the Middle East Across Borders https://www.juancole.com/2024/11/convenes-climate-menaces.html Tue, 12 Nov 2024 05:15:45 +0000 https://www.juancole.com/?p=221471 Ann Arbor (Informed Comment) – The European Centre for Development Policy Management has issued a new report on the threats of human-caused climate change to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, concentrating on cross-border dangers that affect more than one country.

Heat and drought would rank high on this list. The Middle East is heating twice as fast as the global average. Egypt and Iraq are especially vulnerable to sea level rise. Some of the consequent threats can only be dealt with by inter-governmental cooperation. But that kind of cooperation is hard to come by as things now stand.

An example of a cross-border problem is the substantial reliance of numerous MENA nations on imported food, especially grains, which renders them vulnerable to global food price fluctuations caused by climate-related events (or wars) in other regions.

We saw this problem in the Russia-Ukraine War, which threatened Middle East wheat supplies. But climate-drive mega-droughts could have similar implications.

MENA countries are not well positioned to deal with climate change impacts, they point out, given that governments tend to be highly centralized, with power concentrated in the hands of oligarchs or juntas dependent directly or indirectly on oil and gas. The oligarchs are out for themselves, seeking “rents” from oil-rich countries where they don’t have such mineral wealth themselves. They exclude from decision-making grass-roots organizations, workers, the poor and women, who are often on the front lines of global heating and know better than the air-conditioned, petroleum-swigging elites how dangerous it is. All this is true for individual countries. Imagine getting them to cooperate on climate resilience or the green energy transition across borders.

The oligarchs of the region promote water-intensive crops like citrus fruits for export even in arid countries, because they can make money on the exports, and even though their countries have to import a lot of food. That is, they could put in staples like grain instead of citrus fruits, but then they wouldn’t make money from exports. Their people would, however, be less hungry.

For another example, they say, the elites in Tunisia concentrate on olive cultivation for the world market (it is the third largest producer). But there are so many olive orchards and so few of any other sort of crop that the country is making difficulties for itself. Monocultures are especially vulnerable to disease outbreaks or global price fluctuations. The olive orchards drink up the country’s agricultural water, making it hard for farmers to put in other crops.

Embed from Getty Images
An irrigation system is used in an olive grove located in Siliana, Tunisia, on May 10, 2024. Farmers face a major problem in keeping their fields productive due to water stress and drought. (Photo by Chedly Ben Ibrahim/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

In Libya, the army controls much of the economy. The country is heavily dependent on oil exports, and suffers when petroleum prices plummet. The country imports 75% of its food, so if anything disrupts the global food supply chain, Libyans are in big trouble. Petroleum is mostly used to fuel vehicles, but as the world electrifies and goes to EVs, Libyans will be up the creek if they don’t find another source of wealth.

There are five big categories of cross-country threats, they say:

1.The Biophysical: “risks for trans-boundary ecosystems, such as international river basins, oceans and the atmosphere.” They give the example of Turkey’s dam-building at the headwaters of the Euphrates, which is threatening water flows in Iraq, which depends on two large rivers for survival. Climate change is also reducing flow. Iraq could be in big trouble over this trans-boundary problem.

2. Financial. Foreign direct investment in the region could fall substantially because of climate impacts, hampering infrastructure projects. Lack of infrastructural adaptation could hurt efforts to come to terms with climate change.

3. Trade: “Potential risks to international trade, such as the import and export of climate-sensitive crops and implications for food security.” MENA imports 50% of its food from the outside, and if there are droughts elsewhere in the world things could turn very dangerous.

4. People-Centered: They point to the millions of displaced people in the region. Half of Syrians had to move house during the Civil War, in which a major drought was probably implicated. Some 11 million Sudanese have been displaced by the current civil war, in a population of 48 million. They don’t say so, but the Nile Delta in Egypt is very populous (60 million people) and very low-lying, at risk from the rising waters of the Mediterranean. God knows where they will go.

5. Geopolitical. This term refers to regional conflict. We see this (this is me, not the report) in Lebanon, where Israel’s attacks have displaced 1.2 million people. There are only about 4.5 million Lebanese.

While Europe has spent hundreds of millions of dollars in aid to help MENA countries begin the transition to solar and wind energy, it has offered very little money to help Middle Eastern countries become more resilient in the face of climate change.

The authors note that the Middle East and North Africa is a diverse geographical area. It has its famous deserts but also mountain ranges, green valleys like Lebanon’s Biqa’ (now being bombed by Israel), long river valleys, mangrove stands along the seas, and swamps in southern Iraq.

The way contemporary analysts categorize the Middle East, it stretches from Iran in the east to Morocco in the far west, and from Syria in the north to Yemen in the south. Nearly 500 million people inhabit the area, and many states within it still have high birth rates, giving it millions of youths. The median age is something like 22 or 24, compared to 38.5 for the United States. Like India and Africa, it is young.

Some parts of the region are desperately poor, others are fabulously wealthy. Outside the petroleum states, they point out, parts of Syria, Iraq, Yemen, the Occupied Palestinian Territories, and Libya, are low-income, conflict-impacted societies facing severe challenges like human displacement and acute poverty. Simultaneously, middle-income nations like Morocco and Egypt are proactively exploring business opportunities within the global green transition.

Morocco and Turkey are virtually the only countries in the area that have had some success transitioning their grids to sustainable sources of energy, though much poorer Morocco is more advanced in wind and solar, while Turkey depends more heavily on hydroelectricity.

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