Stuart Williams – Informed Comment https://www.juancole.com Thoughts on the Middle East, History and Religion Sat, 13 Oct 2018 19:51:21 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=5.8.10 Turkey: Saudis “Not Cooperating” on Khashoggi Probe; Trump Threatens Riyadh https://www.juancole.com/2018/10/cooperating-khashoggi-threatens.html Sun, 14 Oct 2018 04:10:07 +0000 https://www.juancole.com/?p=179373 Istanbul (AFP) – Turkey on Saturday accused Saudi Arabia of failing to cooperate with a probe into the disappearance of a journalist inside its Istanbul consulate, as US President Donald Trump threatened Riyadh with “severe punishment” if it turns out he was killed.

Comments by Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu represented a hardening of Ankara’s hitherto circumspect tone over the the case of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, who has not been seen since since he stepped inside the consulate on October 2.

Turkish officials have said they believe Khashoggi was killed inside the consulate and lurid claims have been leaked to media that he was tortured and even dismembered.

Saudi insists Khashoggi, a Washington Post contributor whose writings have been critical of powerful Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, left the building safely but has yet to offer visual evidence of this.


AFP / Yasin AKGUL. The missing Saudi journalist disappeared after entering the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.

The outcry surrounding his disappearance threatens to not just harm brittle Turkey-Saudi relations but also alarm the kingdom’s supporters in the West and tarnish the reform drive spearheaded by the crown prince.

“We’re going to get to the bottom of it and there will be severe punishment,” Trump told CBS’s “60 Minutes”, according to an extract of an interview that was released on Saturday.

“As of this moment, they (Saudi) deny it and they deny it vehemently. Could it be them? Yes,” Trump said in the interview, which was conducted on Thursday.

But he again voiced his reluctance to limit US arms sales to the kingdom, which analysts see as one of Washington’s key potential levers.

– ‘We want cooperation’ –

Ankara had said that a search of the consulate had been agreed but this has yet to materialise amid reports the two sides are at odds over the conditions of entry into what is Saudi sovereign territory.

“We still have not seen cooperation in order to ensure a smooth investigation and bring everything to light. We want to see this,” Cavusoglu said.

He said Riyadh must let Turkish “prosecutors and experts enter the consulate” to carry out their investigation.

“Where did he go missing? There, at the consulate,” the Turkish foreign minister said, adding that “talks are continuing” with Saudi officials in a bid to resolve the impasse.

A Saudi delegation was in Turkey and due to have talks this weekend in Ankara and take part in a working group on the disappearance, official Turkish media said.

Khashoggi’s fiancee Hatice Cengiz, who was waiting outside the consulate when he went inside to sort out marriage paperwork, echoed the call, urging Saudi on Twitter to “officially reveal what happened” to him.

Interior Minister Prince Abdel Aziz bin Saud bin Nayef slammed claims that the kingdom ordered Khashoggi to be killed inside the consulate as “baseless allegations and lies”.

Ankara has so far trodden carefully in the controversy, with the most sensational allegations splashed in the pro-government press but President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has so far stopped short of directly accusing Riyadh of wrongdoing.

Turkey and Saudi have an uneasy relationship, with disputes over the ousting of the Islamist government in Egypt and the blockade imposed on Ankara’s ally Qatar.

– ‘Recorded by Apple Watch’ –

The latest claims reported by the pro-government Sabah daily said that Khashoggi had been wearing an Apple Watch when he entered the consulate which was synced with an iPhone left outside with his fiancee.

It said that the watch had recorded what happened inside the consulate and this was uploaded to his cloud, although Saudis sought to partially delete it.


AFP / Thomas SAINT-CRICQ. Disappearance of a Saudi journalist.

“The moments of Khashoggi’s questioning, torture and killing were recorded on the Apple watch,” said Sabah.

Analysts say that Turkey is hoping to find support from its NATO ally the United States in the case, although Ankara-Washington have been in crisis over the detention for the last two years of a Protestant pastor.

But the pastor, Andrew Brunson, was freed on Friday and allowed to fly home by a Turkish court, in a move that could help normalise ties.

Meanwhile Prince Mohammed’s big October conference — the Future Investment Initiative dubbed by media as the “Davos in the Desert” after the annual conference in the Swiss resort — has suffered a litany of cancellations over the controversy.

Key business figures like the chief executive of ride hailing app Uber — into which the Saudi’s own investment fund injected money — are no longer showing up while media groups like the New York Times, Financial Times and Bloomberg have pulled their sponsorship.

US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Saturday that he still planned to attend, as did IMF chief Christine Lagarde although she said she was “horrified” by the case.

Featured Photo: AFP/File / MOHAMMED AL-SHAIKH. Saudi Arabia has hit out at accusations Jamal Khashoggi was murdered inside its Istanbul consulate.

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Five Reasons Why Erdogan Won Turkey’s Election https://www.juancole.com/2018/06/reasons-erdogan-election.html Tue, 26 Jun 2018 04:34:05 +0000 https://www.juancole.com/?p=176671 Istanbul (AFP) – Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan won a decisive victory in weekend elections, scuppering predictions that his popularity was on the wane after 15 years in power.

Erdogan, 64, secured a new presidential term with enhanced powers in an outright first round victory against his main rival Muharrem Ince who failed to end the Turkish strongman’s supremacy despite an energetic campaign.

His ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) also held onto its overall majority in parliament — albeit only with the help of a pact with nationalist allies. The results surprised many analysts who had predicted a second round vote and an opposition majority.

Here are five reasons why Erdogan, who could theoretically stay in power until 2028, dominated these elections and may continue to dominate Turkish politics for years to come.

– Bedrock –

A glance at the electoral map of Turkey’s 81 provinces shows the task faced by the opposition.

While Ince was ahead in eight provinces mainly in western Turkey and pro-Kurdish candidate Selahattin Demirtas won in 10 provinces in the southeast, the 63 other provinces including the entire heart of the country was for Erdogan.

In key Anatolian provinces with large populations, like Kayseri and Sivas, he polled over 70 percent.

It is in this Anatolian heartland that Erdogan still inspires impassioned support from people who share his Islamic conservative beliefs and credit him for bringing Turkey to greater economic prosperity and respect.

In his victory speech, he vowed to make those who were once marginalised “first class citizens”.

“Erdogan’s emotional bond with his voters proved intact,” said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, the Ankara office director of the German Marshall Fund of the US.

– Control –

Erdogan has genuine and wide popularity. But as in past elections he was able to rely on hugely favourable coverage in print media and near domination of the airwaves.

State television all but ignored the opposition, with state-run TRT not airing a single second of live coverage from Ince’s final rally on Saturday.

Private media are also largely on the president’s side, especially after the takeover by the pro-Erdogan Demiroren Group earlier this year of the Dogan Media Holding which includes the widely watched news channel CNN-Turk.

This also stymied other opposition candidates, with nationalist Meral Aksener almost absent from television and Demirtas in jail.

“The vast majority of Turks regard TV as a news source. The opposition does not have that access,” said Anthony Skinner, director of Middle East and North Africa at the Verisk Maplecroft consultancy.

– Strategy –

With the double election victory on Sunday, Erdogan can now boast of having won an astonishing 14 elections since coming to power.

The Turkish strongman remains a master of campaigning despite the occasional missteps in the last weeks which saw him unwittingly give the opposition a slogan when he vowed to step down “when Turkey says enough”.

He criss-crosses the country, drawing huge crowds by snarling at opponents and making promises that show an acute appreciation of local issues.

He also again showed nous calling these polls one and a half years ahead of schedule before the economy weakened and the opposition could become more organised.

“Erdogan is the supreme strategist and he put these skills to good use,” said Skinner. “He saw the economic headwinds coming.”

– Nationalism –

The number one surprise in the parliamentary elections was the strong performance of Erdogan’s ally the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) which some had written off ahead of the polls but whose vote held.

By contrast, Aksener and the new Iyi (Good) Party which she founded after splitting off from the MHP failed to make the expected impact.

While known abroad as an Islamic politician, Erdogan has in recent years increasingly taken on the clothes of a nationalist, spearheading operations against Kurdish militants and inside Syria.

Unluhisarcikli described the MHP’s success as “the single most important outcome of the election” which would affect both domestic and foreign policy.

– Credibility –

Ince was praised for running an effective campaign, mobilising hundreds of thousands at some rallies and in the end winning more votes than many would have expected only a month ago.

But his Republican People’s Party (CHP) contains few figures with any experience of government and it struggles to retain credibility.

Ince himself admitted making a mistake on election night by texting an admission of defeat to a journalist friend while not making a public statement.

Meanwhile the greatest asset of the pro-Kurdish HDP, Demirtas, is hidden from view behind bars on charges he alleges were trumped up by Erdogan.

“It is very depressing for the opposition as the election was the last window for them” before Erdogan assumes the executive presidency with additional powers, said Skinner.

Featured Photo: AFP / BULENT KILIC. Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan election victory showed that his popularity hasn’t waned after 15 years in power.

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Turkey recalls Ambassador from “Apartheid State” Israel, Israelis expel Turkish Consul https://www.juancole.com/2018/05/ambassador-apartheid-israelis.html Wed, 16 May 2018 08:55:29 +0000 https://www.juancole.com/?p=175438 With Raziye Akkoc in Ankara | – –

Istanbul (AFP) – Turkey and Israel on Tuesday ordered envoys to leave in tit-for-tat moves and exchanged bitter accusations as a row over the Israeli army’s killing of dozens of Palestinians threatened a 2016 reconciliation deal.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hit back at Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Twitter by calling Israel an “apartheid state” as Ankara ordered the Israeli ambassador to leave.

Eitan Naeh was summoned to the Turkish foreign ministry and told to “return to his country for a period of time”, said a foreign ministry official who asked not to be named.

Israel responded by ordering the Turkish consul in Jerusalem to leave for an unspecified period of time, its foreign ministry said.

Naeh had only been in his post since December 2016 after a reconciliation deal earlier that year ended a dispute over the May 2010 deadly storming of a Turkish ship by Israeli commandos that saw relations downgraded for more than half a decade.

That deal was strongly backed by the United States, which was keen to see Israel make up with one of its very few key Muslim partners.

Turkey had already called back its ambassador to Tel Aviv — as well as its envoy to Washington — for consultations over the killing of 60 Palestinians by Israeli forces along the Gaza border on Monday.

Ankara has reacted with fury to the killings, which came on the same day as the US formally moved its embassy in Israel to Jerusalem from Tel Aviv.

– ‘Blood of Palestinians’ –


POOL/AFP / Matt Dunham. Having already accused Israel of “state terror” and “genocide” over the Gaza unrest, President Erdogan warned history “will not forgive” Israel or the United States for moving the American embassy to Jerusalem

Erdogan, currently on a visit to Britain, had on Monday stepped up his rhetoric, accusing Israel of “state terror” and “genocide” over the killings.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hit back at Erdogan, with a tweeted jibe in Hebrew that as a leading supporter of Palestinian Islamist group Hamas “there’s no doubt he’s an expert on terror and slaughter”.

Responding on Twitter in English, Erdogan said: “Netanyahu is the PM of an apartheid state that has occupied a defenceless people’s lands for 60+ yrs in violation of UN resolutions.”

“He has the blood of Palestinians on his hands and can’t cover up crimes by attacking Turkey,” he added.

In a later tweet titled “Reminder to Netanyahu”, Erdogan denied that Hamas is a terror group, saying it is a “resistance movement that defends the Palestinian homeland against an occupying power”.

After talks with British Prime Minister Theresa May, Erdogan warned that history “will not forgive” Israel or the US for moving the American embassy to Jerusalem in defiance of outrage in the Islamic world.

“America says ‘I am strong and so I am right’. No, you are not right,” Erdogan said.

– ‘Strong message’ –


AFP / MENAHEM KAHANA. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hit back at Erdogan by highlighting the latter’s support for Palestinian Islamist group Hamas.

While Turkey under Erdogan has never completely severed ties with Israel, the Turkish strongman has also never shied away from the strongest criticism.

He famously walked out of a January 2009 debate in Davos with then Israeli president Shimon Peres, complaining he was not given enough time to respond and repeatedly saying “one minute”.

Turkey began observing three days of national mourning on Tuesday declared by Erdogan for the Palestinian dead, with flags flying at half-mast and cultural events cancelled.

Prime Minister Binali Yildirim has urged Islamic countries to review their ties with Israel and said Ankara was calling an extraordinary summit of the world’s main pan-Islamic body, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), in Istanbul on Friday.

Erdogan said in London that the meeting “will give a very strong message to the world” on the cause of the Palestinians.

Who might come is unclear, but in a possible bid to rally support for the summit, Erdogan spoke by telephone to Jordan’s King Abdullah and Malaysia’s 92-year-old new leader Mahathir Mohamad.

Erdogan regards himself as a champion of the Palestinian cause and last year hosted an OIC summit in Istanbul to denounce US President Donald Trump’s decision to recognise Jerusalem as Israel’s capital.

Yildirim said after Friday’s summit a giant rally would be held at the vast Yenikapi meeting area in Istanbul under the slogan of “Stop the Oppression” to express solidarity with the Palestinians.

Hundreds of people also held protests for a second day in Istanbul and Ankara. The demonstrations went peacefully, although one man was arrested in Ankara for throwing eggs and stones at the residence of the Israeli ambassador.

Featured Photo: AFP / ILYAS AKENGIN. Protesters in the southeastern Turkish city of Diyarbakir hold a placard reading “hell is the capital of Israel” at a demonstration slamming the bloodshed along the Gaza border.

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