( RFE/ RL ) – Iran and Saudi Arabia have been bitter rivals for decades, vying to lead competing branches of Islam and standing on opposing sides of conflicts in Syria and Yemen.

But Tehran and Riyadh have taken major steps to de-escalate tensions and boost cooperation, a move that appeared unthinkable until recently.

The rapprochement has coincided with growing fears of an all-out war in the Middle East, where U.S. ally Israel is engaged in wars against Iranian-backed groups in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon.

The detente process has intensified since Donald Trump’s decisive victory in the U.S. presidential election earlier this month. The president-elect has pledged to bring peace to the region.

“I don’t view this as a warming of relations but rather as a cautious detente,” said Talal Mohammad, associate fellow at the Britain-based Royal United Services Institute.

Reassuring Iran

The first signs of a thaw came in March 2023, when Iran and Saudi Arabia restored diplomatic relations after more than seven years following a surprise Chinese-brokered agreement.

But it was Israel’s invasion of Gaza in October 2023 — soon after the U.S.- and EU-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas carried out an unprecedented attack on Israel — that gave real impetus to Iran-Saudi rapprochement efforts.

Since the war erupted, Iran and Israel have traded direct aerial attacks for the first time. The tit-for-tat assaults have brought the region to the brink of a full-blown conflict.

Saudi Arabia is “concerned that these escalating tensions between Israel and Iran could spiral out of control and lead to a broader regional conflict that may impact their interests,” said Hamidreza Azizi, fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

Azizi adds that Sunni-majority Saudi Arabia and Shi’a-dominated Iran are still “far from friends,” despite the recent rapprochement, and they remain rivals vying for influence.

Over the past year, Saudi Arabia has stopped conducting air strikes in neighboring Yemen against the Iran-backed Huthi rebels. Riyadh has also made attempts to negotiate an end to the 10-year conflict pitting the Huthis against the Saudi-backed Yemeni government.

The Huthis have also ceased cross-border attacks on Saudi Arabia. In 2019, the rebels managed to shut down half of the kingdom’s oil production.

The Trump Factor

Trump’s victory in the November 5 presidential election has injected more urgency to the Iran-Saudi rapprochement, experts say.

Saudi Arabia’s top general, Fayyad al-Ruwaili, made a rare trip to Iran on November 10 to meet Armed Forces Chief of Staff Mohammad Baqeri in what Iranian media dubbed “defense diplomacy.”

The following day, Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman accused Israel of committing “collective genocide” against Palestinians in Gaza and explicitly condemned Israel’s attack last month on Iranian military sites.

Azizi says there are fears in the region that Trump’s electoral victory will embolden Israel to intensify its attacks on Iran and Tehran’s interests.

During Trump’s first term in office from 2017 to 2021, his administration pursued a campaign of “maximum pressure” on Iran that included imposing crippling sanctions against Tehran.

At the same time, Trump struck a close relationship with Riyadh. He helped facilitate normalization between several Arab states and Israel under the so-called Abraham Accords.

Before Israel launched its devastating war in Gaza, Saudi Arabia was reportedly on the verge of a historic deal to normalize relations with Israel.

Experts say that the Huthis’ attacks in 2019 on Saudi oil facilities convinced Riyadh that Washington will not come to its aid if it is attacked.

“Given Trump’s tendency toward unpredictable shifts in policy, Saudi Arabia may seek to play an influential role by encouraging Trump to adopt a balanced approach that ensures regional stability without triggering escalation with Iran,” Mohammad said.

“By subtly guiding U.S. policy toward calibrated sanctions rather than aggressive pressure, Saudi Arabia could help maintain regional security while avoiding the risks of open confrontation,” he added.

Israeli Normalization

Normalization talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel have been indefinitely postponed. Saudi officials have recently said that a deal was off until the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.

Mohammad says Riyadh has significant strategic incentives to normalize relations with Israel, including security and economic cooperation as well as access to U.S. nuclear and defense technology.

But analysts say Saudi Arabia will only resume talks when the Gaza war is over, given the current public sentiment in the Muslim world toward Israel.

“Normalizing relations without achieving tangible rights for Palestinians could weaken Saudi Arabia’s normative influence within the Islamic world — a position they are keen to maintain,” Azizi argued.

The Saudis will also have to take into account Iran, which staunchly opposes Saudi normalization with Israel.

“Riyadh may consult with Tehran and seek assurances that normalization with Israel would not heighten hostilities or undermine the balance achieved through recent diplomatic outreach to Iran,” Mohammad said.

Copyright (c)2024 RFE/RL, Inc. Used with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

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Al Jazeera English: “Iran-Saudi defence meeting: Generals discuss bilateral relations and cooperation”

RFE/ RL

“The Kingdom renews its condemnation and categorical rejection of the genocide committed by Israel against the brotherly Palestinian people,” Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman said at an Arab Islamic summit, echoing comments by Saudi Foreign Minister, Faisal Bin Farhan Al Saud, late last month.

He urged the international community to stop Israel from attacking Iran and to respect Iran’s sovereignty.

The Crown Prince said in September the Kingdom would not recognise Israel unless a Palestinian State was created.

US President Joe Biden’s administration had sought to broker a normalisation accord between Saudi Arabia and Israel that would have included US security guarantees for the Kingdom, among other bilateral deals between Washington and Riyadh.

Those normalisation efforts were put on ice after the 7 October, 2023, attack on Israel by Hamas fighters from Gaza and Israel’s subsequent retaliation.

Israel’s military assault on Gaza in the last 13 months has killed tens of thousands, displaced nearly its entire population, caused a hunger crisis and led to allegations of genocide at the World Court, which Israel denies.

Via Middle East Monitor

This work by Middle East Monitor is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

—-

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Al Jazeera English: “Saudi Crown Prince demands Gaza, Lebanon ceasefire”

I’m reprinting here my most recent Tomdispatch essay for The Nation Institute, on the possible emergence of a centrist Sunni bloc that aims to offset Israeli power in the region. Check out, as well, Tom Engelhardt’s essential introduction, here.

At least one thing is now obvious in the Middle East: the Biden administration has failed abjectly in its objectives there, leaving the region in dangerous disarray. Its primary stated foreign policy goal has been to rally its partners in the region to cooperate with the extremist Israeli government of Benjamin Netanyahu while upholding a “rules-based” international order and blocking Iran and its allies in their policies. Clearly, such goals have had all the coherence of a chimera and have failed for one obvious reason. President Biden’s Achilles heel has been his “bear hug” of Netanyahu, who allied himself with the Israeli equivalent of neo-Nazis, while launching a ruinous total war on the people of Gaza in the wake of the horrific October 7th Hamas terrorist attack on Israel.

Biden also signed on to the Abraham Accords, a project initiated in 2020 by Jared Kushner, the son-in-law and special Middle East envoy of then-President Donald Trump. Through them the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco all agreed to recognize Israel in return for investment and trade opportunities there and access to American weaponry and a U.S. security umbrella. Not only did Washington, however, fail to incorporate Saudi Arabia into that framework, but it has also faced increasing difficulty keeping the accords themselves in place given increasing anger and revulsion in the region over the high (and still ongoing) civilian death toll in Gaza. Typically, just the docking of an Israeli ship at the Moroccan port of Tangier this summer set off popular protests that spread to dozens of cities in that country. And that was just a taste of what could be coming.

Breathtaking Hypocrisy

Washington’s efforts in the Middle East have been profoundly undermined by its breathtaking hypocrisy. After all, the Biden team has gone blue in the face decrying the Russian occupation of parts of Ukraine and its violations of international humanitarian law in killing so many innocent civilians there. In contrast, the administration let the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu completely disregard international law when it comes to its treatment of the Palestinians. This summer, the International Court of Justice ruled that the entire Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories is illegal in international law and, in response, the U.S. and Israel both thumbed their noses at the finding. In part as a response to Washington’s Israeli policy, no country in the Middle East and very few nations in the global South have joined in its attempt to ostracize Vladimir Putin’s Russia.

Worse yet for the Biden administration, the most significant divide in the Arab world between secular nationalist governments and those that favor forms of political Islam has begun to heal in the face of the perceived Israeli threat. Turkey and Egypt, daggers long drawn over their differing views of the Muslim Brotherhood, the fundamentalist movement that briefly came to power in Cairo in 2012-2013, have begun repairing their relationship, specifically citing the menace posed by Israeli expansionism.

The persistence of Secretary of State Antony Blinken in pressing Saudi Arabia, a key U.S. security partner, to recognize Israel at a moment when the Arab public is boiling with anger over what they see as a campaign of genocide in Gaza, is the closest thing since the Trump administration to pure idiocracy. Washington’s pressure on Riyadh elicited from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman the pitiful plea that he fears being assassinated were he to normalize relations with Tel Aviv now. And consider that ironic given his own past role in ordering the assassination of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. In short, the ongoing inside-the-Beltway ambition to secure further Arab recognition of Israel amid the annihilation of Gaza has America’s security partners wondering if Washington is trying to get them killed — anything but a promising basis for a long-term alliance.

Global Delegitimization

The science-fiction-style nature of U.S. policy in the Middle East is starkly revealed when you consider the position of Jordan, which has a peace treaty with Israel. In early September, its foreign minister, Ayman Safadi, warned that any attempt by the Israeli military or its squatter-settlers to expel indigenous West Bank Palestinians to Jordan would be considered an “act of war.” While such anxieties might once have seemed overblown, the recent stunning (and stunningly destructive) Israeli military campaign on the Palestinian West Bank, including bombings of populated areas by fighter jets, has already begun to resemble the campaign in Gaza in its tactics. And keep in mind that, as August ended, Foreign Minister Israel Katz even urged the Israeli army to compel Palestinians to engage in a “voluntary evacuation” of the northern West Bank.

Not only is the expulsion of Palestinians from there now the stated policy of cabinet members like Jewish Power extremist Itamar Ben-Gvir; it’s the preference of 65% of Israelis polled. And mind you, when Israel and Jordan begin talking war you know something serious is going on, since the last time those two countries actively fought was in the 1973 October War during the administration of President Richard Nixon.

In short, Netanyahu and his extremist companions are in the process of undoing all the diplomatic progress their country achieved in the past half-century. Ronen Bar, the head of Israel’s domestic Shin Bet intelligence agency, warned in August that the brutal policies the extremists in the government were pursuing are “a stain on Judaism” and will lead to “global delegitimization, even among our greatest allies.”

Turkey, a NATO ally with which the U.S. has mutual defense obligations, has become vociferous in its discontent with President Biden’s Middle Eastern policy. Although Turkey recognized Israel in 1949, under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of the pro-Islam Justice and Development Party interactions had grown rocky even before the Gaza nightmare. Still, until then their trade and military ties had survived occasional shouting matches between their politicians. The Gaza genocide, however, has changed all that. Erdogan even compared Netanyahu to Hitler, and then went further still, claiming that, in the Rafah offensive in southern Gaza in May, “Netanyahu has reached a level with his genocidal methods that would make Hitler jealous.”

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Worse yet, the Turkish president, referred to by friend and foe as the “sultan” because of his vast power, has now gone beyond angry words. Since last October, he’s used Turkey’s position in NATO to prohibit that organization from cooperating in any way with Israel on the grounds that it’s violating the NATO principle that harm to civilians in war must be carefully minimized. The Justice and Development Party leader also imposed an economic boycott on Israel, interrupting bilateral trade that had reached $7 billion a year and sending the price of fruits and vegetables in Israel soaring, while leading to a shortage of automobiles in the Israeli market.

Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party represents the country’s small towns and rural areas and its Muslim businesses and entrepreneurs, constituencies that care deeply about the fate of Muslim Palestinians in Gaza. And while Erdogan’s high dudgeon has undoubtedly been sincere, he’s also pleasing his party’s stalwarts in the face of an increasing domestic challenge from the secular Republican People’s Party. In addition, he’s long played to a larger Arab public, which is apoplectic over the unending carnage in Gaza.

The Alliance of Muslim Countries

Although it was undoubtedly mere bluster, Erdogan even threatened a direct intervention on behalf of the beleaguered Palestinians. In early August, he said, “Just as we intervened in Karabakh [disputed territory between Azerbaijan and Armenia], just as we intervened in Libya, we will do the same to them.” In early September, the Turkish president called for an Islamic alliance in the region to counter what he characterized as Israeli expansionism:

“Yesterday, one of our own children, [Turkish-American human rights advocate] Ayşenur Ezgi Eygi, was vilely slaughtered [on the West Bank]. Israel will not stop in Gaza. After occupying Ramallah [the de facto capital of that territory], they will look around elsewhere. They’ll fix their eyes on our homeland. They openly proclaim it with a map. We say Hamas is resisting for the Muslims. Standing against Israel’s state terror is an issue of importance to the nation and the country. Islamic countries must wake up as soon as possible and increase their cooperation. The only step that can be taken against Israel’s genocide is the alliance of Muslim countries.”

In fact, the present nightmare in Gaza and the West Bank may indeed be changing political relationships in the region. After all, the Turkish president pointed to his rapprochement with Egypt as a building block in a new security edifice he envisions. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi made his first visit to Ankara on September 4th (following a February Erdogan trip to Cairo). And those visits represented the end of a more than decade-long cold war in the Sunni Muslim world over al-Sisi’s 2013 coup against elected Muslim Brotherhood Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi, whom Erdogan had backed.

Despite its apparent embrace of democratic norms in 2012-2013, some Middle Eastern rulers charged the Brotherhood with having covert autocratic ambitions throughout the region and sought to crush it. For the moment, the Muslim Brotherhood and other forms of Sunni political Islam have been roundly defeated in Egypt, Syria, Tunisia, and the Persian Gulf region. Erdogan, a pragmatist despite his support for the Brotherhood and its offshoot Hamas, had been in the process of getting his country the best possible deal, given such a regional defeat, even before the Israelis struck Gaza.

Netanyahu’s Forever War in Gaza

For his part, Egypt’s al-Sisi is eager for greater leverage against Netanyahu’s apparent plan for a forever war in Gaza. After all, the Gaza campaign has already inflicted substantial damage on Egypt’s economy, since Yemen’s Houthis have supported the Gazans with attacks on container ships and oil tankers in the Red Sea. That has, in turn, diverted traffic away from it and from the Suez Canal, whose tolls normally earn significant foreign exchange for Egypt. In the first half of 2024, however, it took in only half the canal receipts of the previous year. Although tourism has held up reasonably well, any widening of the war could devastate that industry, too.

Egyptians are also reportedly furious over Netanyahu’s occupation of the Philadelphi Corridor south of the city of Rafah in Gaza and his blithe disregard of Cairo’s prerogatives under the Camp David agreement to patrol that corridor. The al-Sisi government, which, along with Qatar’s rulers and the Biden administration, has been heavily involved in hosting (so far fruitless) peace negotiations between Hamas and Israel, seems at the end of its tether, increasingly angered at the way the Israeli prime minister has constantly tacked new conditions onto any agreements being discussed, causing the talks to fail.

For months, Cairo has also been seething over Netanyahu’s charge that Egypt allowed tunnels to be built under that corridor to supply Hamas with weaponry, insisting that the Egyptian army had diligently destroyed 1,500 such tunnels. Egypt’s position was given support recently by Nadav Argaman, a former head of Shin Bet, who said, “There is no connection between the weaponry found in Gaza and the Philadelphi Corridor.” Of Netanyahu, he added, “He knows very well that no smuggling takes place over the Philadelphi Corridor. So, we are now relegated to living with this imaginary figment.”

In the Turkish capital, Ankara, Al-Sisi insisted that he wanted to work with Erdogan to address “the humanitarian tragedy that our Palestinian brothers in Gaza are facing in an unprecedented disaster that has been going on for nearly a year.” He underscored that there was no daylight between Egypt and Turkey “regarding the demand for an immediate ceasefire, the rejection of the current Israeli escalation in the West Bank, and the call to start down a path that achieves the aspirations of the Palestinian people to establish their independent state on the borders of June 4, 1967, with East Jerusalem as its capital.” He also pointed out that such positions are in accord with U.N. Security Council resolutions and pledged to work with Turkey to ensure that humanitarian aid was delivered to Gaza despite “the ongoing obstacles imposed by Israel.”

To sum up, the ligaments of American influence in the Middle East are now dissolving before our very eyes. Washington’s closest allies, like the Jordanian and Saudi royal families, are terrified that Biden’s bear hug of Netanyahu’s war crimes and the fury of their own people could, in the end, destabilize their rule. Countries that, not so long ago, had correct, if not warm, relations with Israel like Egypt and Turkey are increasingly denouncing that country and its policies. And the alliance of U.S. partners in the region with Israel against Iran that Washington has long worked for seems to be coming apart at the seams. Countries like Egypt and Turkey are instead exploring the possibility of forming a regional Sunni Muslim alliance against Netanyahu’s geopolitics of Jewish power that might, in the end, actually reduce tensions with Tehran.

That things have come to such a pass in the Middle East is distinctly the fault of the Biden administration and its position — or lack of one — on Israel’s nightmare in Gaza (and now the West Bank, too). Today, all too sadly, that administration is wearing the same kind of blinkers regarding the war in Gaza that President Lyndon B. Johnson and his top officials once sported when it came to the Vietnam War.

Copyright 2024 Juan Cole

Featured Image: “Erdogan and al-Sisi,” Digital, Dream /Dreamland v3 / IbisPaint/ Clip2Comic, 2024

It is worth mentioning that Saudi royalty are also no strangers to assassination. In 1975, King Faisal was shot to death by his disgruntled nephew, whose motives remain murky. Former crown prince and former Minister of the Interior Mohammed Bin Nayef survived several assassination attempts, the last in 2009 when al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula targeted him with a suicide bomber who hid his bomb in his butt cheeks.

MBS is, of course, leaking these concerns to put pressure on Biden administration diplomats Brett McGurk and Antony Blinken, who have been attempting to pressure him to join Jared Kushner’s Abraham Accords and recognize Israel.

The Saudis have repeatedly underlined that they can only recognize Israel if a Palestinian state is created. A rapprochement with Tel Aviv that throws the Palestinians under the bus would be enormously unpopular among the public in Saudi Arabia, and could indeed lead to unrest. Peoples’ blood in the region is boiling over Israel’s killing of over 40,000 Palestinians, a majority of them women and children, in Gaza.

Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, concluded accords with postage stamp countries such as Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates. Bahrain is a set of small islands a little larger than Rhode Island with a Shiite majority and a hard line Sunni monarchy, which is desperately afraid of Iran. Iran ruled Bahrain in the early modern period and Iranian parliamentarians occasionally give speeches in which they make claims on the islands. Bahrain’s population is about 1.5 million, similar to that of Hawaii, and only 46% of the country’s residents are citizens. The rest are guest workers.

The United Arab Emirates likewise has 9.4 million residents but only 1.14 million citizens, in a territory slightly larger than South Carolina.

It is possible for these monarchies, with their iron-fist-in-a-velvet-glove security apparatuses, to keep their small citizen populations in line when they do something unpopular. The guest workers who make trouble are summarily deported to their home countries.

In contrast, Saudi Arabia is a real country. Its territory is a little over a fifth of the US, equivalent to Texas, California, Montana, New Mexico, Arizona and Nevada taken together. Its citizen population is 18.8 million, comprising 58.4% of the residents of the country. That population is a little larger than the Netherlands’ and a little smaller than Chile’s.

Saudis can rise up against their government. In 2003-2006 and again later in that decade, the kingdom was wracked by political violence spearheaded by Saudis who had enrolled in the peninsula’s branch of al-Qaeda and who directly targeted Riyadh and the royal family. In 1979 a millenarian movement Saudis briefly took over the grand mosque in Mecca.

So, Bin Salman’s trepidation is perfectly reasonable and the Biden plan for Saudi Arabia to recognize Israel at all costs is daft. As Bin Salman pointed out, if a Palestinian state is not created, there just will be endless trouble in the Levant. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is dead set against any such Palestinian state, and his parliament actually passed a law against recognizing a Palestinian state, last month.

Morocco, another Abraham Accords signatory, has witnessed demonstrations demanding the expulsion of Israeli diplomats from the country.

If the Biden administration manages to pressure the Saudis into recognizing Israel, without making any provisions for the Palestinians to escape their status as stateless people with no real basic human rights, it will only destablize the region and set it up for another round of wars in the future.

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Times of India Video: “Saudi Crown Prince MBS Sends A Shocking Message To U.S. Congress Members On Israel | Watch

(The Conversation) – To date, little has been known about people living in north-western Saudi Arabia during the Neolithic – the period traditionally defined by the shift to humans controlling food production and settling into communities with agriculture and domesticated animals.

The piecemeal evidence available hinted traditional ideas – of small struggling groups constantly on the move across the barren lands – needed to be revisited.

Now, an Australian-led team has released new research on monumental buildings we call “standing stone circles”. The findings are helping to rewrite what we know about the people who lived on this land between 6,500 and 8,000 years ago.

Our evidence reveals what they ate, what tools they used and even the jewellery they wore. It leads us to think these people weren’t struggling so much after all, but rather had found complex and strategic ways to thrive on the land for millennia.

The project

Over the past five years, our team of researchers has studied 431 standing stone circles in the AlUla and Khaybar regions of north-west Saudi Arabia, as part of an ongoing project sponsored by the Royal Commission for AlUla. Of the 431 structures, 52 have been surveyed in detail and 11 excavated.

Our latest findings come from a selection of buildings found on the Harrat ‘Uwayrid – a volcanic plateau formed over millennia. The dense clusters of standing stone circles on the harrat show us how complex these mobile pastoralist communities actually were. We also recovered remnants left behind by the people who lived in these buildings for more than 1,000 years.

We used a range of modern and traditional techniques to tackle the practical limitations of working in such a remote and rugged landscape. Aerial survey by helicopter helped us identify examples of the dwellings across 40,000 square kilometres of basalt and sandy desert. Drones were also used to make plans of the sites, some almost three hectares in size.

More than just a house

Our’s is the first published evidence for domestic architecture from this period. These buildings are substantial, between 4 and 8 metres wide. They are formed by two concentric rows of large stones placed end-to-end in a circle.

We theorise the space created between the two rows of stone acted as a foundation for timber posts wedged between the rows to support the dwelling’s roof. Another slab in the centre supported a central timber post lashed to it.

Based on the tools and animal remains we’ve found, we think the occupants probably threw animal skins across the top of the structure to enclose it, forming a roof of sorts.

These structures – which we think of more as shelters than “houses” – were used for any and all activities. Inside, we found evidence of stone tool-making, cooking and eating, as well as lost and broken tools used for processing animal hides.

A diverse palate

Our analysis of the animal bones found inside the structures shows these people mostly ate domesticated species, such as goats, sheep and a smaller number of cattle. They supplemented this with wild species such as gazelles and birds.

This means they could respond to changes in their environment with flexibility – giving them resilience at a time when climate change would have been affecting the availability of water and vegetation.

This adaptability also extended to their use of plants. They left behind many grindstones – slabs of basalt worn flat by the grinding of wild grasses and local plants.

Nomadic or mobile?

We assume these people didn’t stay in one place, since they lived in buildings that could be partially dismantled and moved. Goats and sheep also need fresh pastures and water to survive.

That said, these people spent enough time at each site to justify the time and effort required to source and manipulate basalt blocks weighing up to one tonne each. This suggests they returned to these locations time and again for hundreds of years, if not more than 1,200 years.

They left behind materials collected from near and far. While the local basalt was sufficient for everyday tools, the best materials made from chert (a tough sedimentary rock) were brought up to the Harrat Uwayrid to make fine arrowheads, drills and scrapers.

They also collected red stone to be crushed into pigment. It may have been used for rock art, or perhaps for painting bodies and hides.

Small shells were brought from the Red Sea (some 120 kilometres away) to make beads. Other objects we found included bracelets and pendants carved and polished from exotic stone.

Trading in the Levant

It seems likely these people formed a culturally distinct group who interacted with their neighbours in the Levant to the north, a region which includes modern-day Jordan, Palestine and Syria, among others.

Our findings suggest they imported their animals and stone tool technologies. Some of the tools resemble those found at earlier sites across Jordan, which suggests they either traded or learned how to make them from further north.

Domesticated goats and sheep would have also been sourced from further afield, as there were no wild versions of these animals in the area. Everything they brought was incorporated usefully into their way of life, to suit the lands they already knew so well.

Our work is just beginning to fill in the gaps of what life was like in north-western Arabia, helping reintroduce it – and its people – into the picture of the wider region.

Jane McMahon, Research Associate, Discipline of Archaeology, University of Sydney

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

<>Featured image: Thalia Nitz/University of Sydney

( Human Rights Watch ) – Less than a year after Human Rights Watch found Saudi border guards had committed widespread and systematic killings of Ethiopian migrants on its border with Yemen, the US appears poised to lift its years-long ban on the sale of offensive weapons to the country.

The ban would be ended despite the lack of accountability for the Saudis’ years of war crimes in Yemen, possible crimes against humanity on the Yemen-Saudi border, and what a US intelligence report concluded was approval of killing the journalist Jamal Khashoggi by Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s crown prince and de-facto ruler. This would prove to the Saudi leadership that they can get away with murder.

The ban on US sales of offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia originated from a Joe Biden campaign promise to “make sure America does not check its values at the door to sell arms or buy oil,” citing the Saudi-backed war in Yemen.

France 24 English Video: “‘Saudi Crown Prince believes rights are his to give, he’ll prosecute people who demand their rights'”

Last summer, we released a report detailing Saudi border guards’ horrific crimes against unarmed Ethiopian migrants. Among the devastating evidence, a 17-year-old boy told us how he survived an explosive weapons attack on the border between Saudi Arabia and Yemen. While approaching the border with a large group of migrants, he said Saudi border guards fired on them with rocket launchers.

He described seeing the remains of his group—mostly women and children—strewn across the mountain. Somehow, he survived the attack but was then intercepted by Saudi border guards. The next part was hard for him to tell. He said that the border guards forced him to rape another survivor—a 15-year-old girl. He witnessed border guards summarily executing a man who refused to rape her, leaving him with the unconscionable choice of his own death or raping the girl.

The news that Saudi border guards were murdering groups of unarmed migrants horrified people from Brazil to South Korea. Diplomats and politicians spoke out, some calling for an independent investigation. The UN’s senior-most human rights official noted the killings in his opening address at the September Human Rights Council session. The United States and Germany announced they had ended training and financial support of the Saudi border guard force.

Fast forward 10 months and the momentum has not so much stalled as reversed. What’s worse, this comes amid news that the US may soon resume offensive weapons sales to Saudi Arabia.

Despite an initial wave of concern from the international community, there has been no justice or accountability for the killings we documented, nor evidence that the killings have subsided. This is not the first time Saudi Arabia has successfully skirted accountability for grave crimes.

Between 2015 and 2022, Saudi-led coalition airstrikes in Yemen caused nearly 20,000 civilian casualties. For years, Human Rights Watch documented the Saudi-led coalition’s use of US weapons in some of the most devastating unlawful attacks on civilians in Yemen, including attacks on a market and a funeral in 2016 that killed nearly 100 people each, both apparent war crimes.

And yet Saudi Arabia has continued to avoid accountability for scores of unlawful airstrikes and civilian casualties in Yemen. In October 2021, after an aggressive lobbying campaign by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, the UN Human Rights Council rejected the renewal of the mandate for the Group of Eminent Experts—the only international, impartial, and independent body investigating and reporting on conflict-related rights violations and abuses in Yemen.

As news that Saudi Arabia and the US are nearing agreement on a new mutual defense pact, concern and alarm for grave crimes committed by the Saudis appears long forgotten. Without accountability these crimes will continue. With a new defense pact and the intention of lifting the ban on the sale of offensive weapons, the Biden administration sends the message that heinous crimes can be committed, even rewarded, for political expediency.

As Human Rights Watch researchers we made a promise to people like the 17-year-old boy that we would tell the world their stories and try to persuade those in charge that brutal crimes like mass killings should not go unpunished.

The Biden administration should maintain its ban on offensive weapons and end arms sales to Saudi Arabia until the country takes meaningful, independently verified steps to end their abuses and hold those responsible for war crimes to account. The Biden administration also should move to apply Leahy Laws and similar standards against providing military aid to abusive entities that would suspend US equipment, arms, and training for units involved in grave human rights abuses in Saudi Arabia and anywhere else US assets are used to commit war crimes and crimes against humanity.

Via Human Rights Watch

Eyewitnesses said that not all the dead were elderly, that young persons died, as well.

Pilgrims carry out a series of rituals during the pilgrimage, beginning with preparing themselves and establishing their pious intention. Many of the steps involve being outside and being active. They dress in white robes. They circumambulate the cube-shaped Kaaba shrine. They run between the nearby hillocks of Safa and Marwa seven times, in commemoration of the search of Abraham’s wife Hajar for water for her son with the patriarch, Ishmael. They walk or are taken in buses to Mina and spend some nights of the pilgrimage there. There, they throw stones at satan.

H/t Saudi Ministry of Hajj

AFP explains that some pilgrims try to avoid paying the hefty visa fees by just showing up unregistered. They however, then lack access to air conditioned facilities and are at special risk of heat stroke.

The number of heat stroke deaths seems to have doubled since last year. Saudi Arabia is one of the world’s major oil producers, and burning petroleum to power vehicles puts the deadly heat-trapping gas, carbon dioxide, into the atmosphere, heating up the planet.

The G20 Climate Risk Atlas writes, “The science shows that Saudi Arabia will experience devastating climate impacts if it follows a high-emissions pathway. Without urgent action, Saudi Arabia will see an 88% increase in the frequency of agricultural drought by 2050. Heatwaves will last more than 4,242% longer and the combination of sea level rise, coastal erosion and fiercer weather will cause chaos for Saudi Arabia’s economy, which stands to lose around 12.2% of GDP by 2050.”

A 12.2% loss of gross domestic product for Saudi Arabia today would amount to a loss of $135 billion annually. That loss alone is more than the entire yearly GDP of Kenya or Ecuador.

Flooding on the kingdom’s coasts as the sea level rises threatens 210,000 of the 22 million citizens. Long droughts endanger fisheries, forests and agriculture, which make up 2.6% of the country’s gross domestic product. Longer heat waves will reduce the quality of life and menace livelihoods and health.

I have to tell you, I have lived in the Arabian Peninsula. I remember one June evening my wife and I were ready to take a short walk over to a restaurant when it was 114° F., and we went out and were met with a blast furnace. We went back in and ordered an air conditioned car for the two-minute drive. We just couldn’t bear to walk five minutes in it.

The Saudi government sees hosting the annual Hajj or pilgrimage as a form of soft power that adds to its legitimacy throughout the Muslim world, comprising some 2 billion persons. If its oil-intensive policies increasingly contribute to disabilities for pilgrims on Hajj, in turn, that development can only harm the monarchy’s reputation, since it styled itself “Servant of the two holy shrines.”

AFP Video: “Hajj pilgrimage ends amid deadly Saudi heat spike | AFP

( RFE/RL) – The United States wants to force a gradual shift in Iran’s “decision-making calculus” by signing a defense deal with Saudi Arabia and securing the normalization of relations between Riyadh and Israel.

“We continue to work with allies and partners to enhance their capabilities to deter and counter the threats Iran poses, impose costs on Iran for its actions, and seek to shift Iran’s decision-making calculus over time,” a U.S. State Department spokesperson told RFE/RL.

The security package has several components, including a bilateral U.S.-Saudi defense pact aimed at enhancing the Sunni kingdom’s deterrence capabilities. But Washington is adamant that regardless of how close the Americans and the Saudis are to a bilateral agreement, the security package cannot materialize without Saudi-Israeli normalization.

Saudi Arabia has conditioned the normalization of ties with Israel on the establishment of a cease-fire in Gaza and a credible pathway to Palestinian statehood.

The administration of U.S. President Joe Biden sees a three-way deal key to ensuring a sustainable peace in the Middle East, which includes isolating Iran and making it costly for the Islamic republic to maintain its current regional policies.

“Iran’s isolation in the region and in the international community is a result of its own policies,” the spokesperson said in an e-mailed statement to RFE/RL.

Hindustan Times Video: “Iran’s Khamenei ‘Warns’ MBS; Lambasts U.S. For ‘Forcing’ Saudi Arabia To Normalise Ties with Israel”

A calculus shift will “definitely” happen, but not in the way that the United States wants, according to Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

“Any sort of coalition-building would result in Iran going for counter-coalitions,” he added.

But analysts maintain that for Saudi Arabia, isolating Iran is not the core objective of a security pact with the United States.

The Saudis see normalizing relations with Israel as a strategic leverage to help them extract substantial security commitments from Washington, “thereby balancing against Iranian influence without overtly antagonizing Tehran,” Azizi said.

Meanwhile, securing a path toward Palestinian statehood could help Saudi Arabia assert its leadership within the Muslim world and effectively end the Arab-Israeli conflict.

Iran has long opposed Arab normalization with Israel and is a staunch critic of the Abraham Accords, which saw Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates (U.A.E.) establish diplomatic ties with Israel in 2020.

On May 1, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei implicitly criticized Saudi Arabia for looking to normalize relations with Israel in the hopes of resolving the Palestinian question.

Anna Jacobs, a senior Gulf analyst at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group, argued that the U.A.E. model of balancing relations with Iran and Israel suggests that Saudi Arabia can do the same.

“Riyadh seems confident that normalization with Israel wouldn’t have a major impact on its relationship with Tehran,” she said. “The Saudi strategy with Iran right now is both containment and engagement.”

Copyright (c)2024 RFE/RL, Inc. Used with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Via RFE/RL

What struck me in their report is how unhappy the Middle East is. The only Middle Eastern country in the top twenty is Kuwait (for the first time in this cycle). Kuwait has oil wealth and is a compact country with lots of social interaction. The high score may reflect Kuwait’s lively labor movement. That sort of movement isn’t allowed in the other Gulf States. The United Arab Emirates came in at 22, and Saudi Arabia at 28.

These countries are all very wealthy and their people are very social and connected to clans and other group identities, including religious congregations.

But everyone else in the Middle East is way down the list.

As usual, Gallup found that the very happiest countries were Scandinavian lands shaped by social democratic policies. It turns out that a government safety net of the sort the Republican Party wants to get rid of actually is key to making people happy.

Finland, Denmark, Iceland, Sweden take the top four spots. Israel, which also has a Labor socialist founding framework, is fifth. The Netherlands, Norway, Switzerland and Luxembourg fill out the top nine.

The Gallup researchers believe that a few major considerations affect well-being or happiness. They note, “Social interactions of all kinds … add to happiness, in addition to their effects flowing through increases in social support and reductions in loneliness.” My brief experience of being in Australia suggests to me that they are indeed very social and likely not very lonely on the whole. Positive emotions also equate to well-being and are much more important in determining it than negative emotions. The positive emotions include joy, gratitude, serenity, hope, pride, amusement, inspiration, awe, and altruism, among others.

Benevolence, doing good to others, also adds to well-being. Interestingly, the Gallup researchers find that benevolence increased in COVID and its aftermath across the board.

They also factor in GDP per capita, that is, how poor or wealthy people are.

Gallup Video: “2024 World Happiness Report; Gallup CEO Jon Clifton”

Bahrain comes in at 62, which shows that oil wealth isn’t everything. It is deeply divided between a Sunni elite and a Shiite majority population, and that sectarian tension likely explains why it isn’t as happy as Kuwait. Kuwait is between a sixth and a third Shiite and also has a Sunni elite, but the Shiites are relatively well treated and the Emir depends on them to offset the power of Sunni fundamentalists. So it isn’t just sectarian difference that affects happiness but the way in which the rulers deal with it.

Libya, which is more or less a failed state after the people rose up to overthrow dictator Moammar Gaddafi, nevertheless comes in at 66. There is some oil wealth when the militias allow its export, and despite the east-west political divide, people are able to live full lives in cities like Benghazi and Tripoli. Maybe the overhang of getting rid of a hated dictator is still a source of happiness for them.

Algeria, a dictatorship and oil state, is 85. The petroleum wealth is not as great as in the Gulf by any means, and is monopolized by the country’s elite.

Iraq, an oil state, is 92. Like Bahrain, it suffers from ethnic and sectarian divides. It is something of a failed state after the American overthrow of its government.

Iran, another oil state, is 100. Its petroleum sales are interfered with by the US except with regard to China, so its income is much more limited than other Gulf oil states. The government is dictatorial and young people seem impatient with its attempt to regiment their lives, as witnessed in the recent anti-veiling protests.

The State of Palestine is 103, which is actually not bad given that they are deeply unhappy with being occupied by Israel. This ranking certainly plummeted after the current Israeli total war on Gaza began.

Morocco is 107. It is relatively poor, in fact poorer than some countries that rank themselves much lower on the happiness scale.

Tunisia is one of the wealthier countries in Africa and much better off than Morocco, but it comes in at 115. In the past few years all the democratic gains made during and after the Arab Spring have been reversed by horrid dictator Qais Saied. People seem to be pretty unhappy at now living in a seedy police state.

Jordan is both poor and undemocratic, and is ranked 125.

Egypt is desperately poor and its government since 2014 has been a military junta in business suits that brooks not the slightest dissent. It is 127. The hopes of the Arab Spring are now ashes.

Yemen is 133. One of the poorest countries in the world, it suffered from being attacked by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates from 2015 until 2021. So it is war torn and poverty-stricken.

Lebanon ranks almost at the bottom at 142. Its economy is better than Yemen’s but its government is hopelessly corrupt and its negligence caused the country’s major port to be blown up, plunging the country into economic crisis. It is wracked by sectarianism. If hope is a major positive emotion that leads to feelings of happiness, it is in short supply there.

Some countries are too much of a basket case to be included, like Syria, where I expect people are pretty miserable after the civil war. Likewise Sudan, which is now in civil strife and where hundreds of thousands may starve.

Poverty, dictatorship, disappointment in political setbacks, and sectarianism all seem to play a part in making the Middle East miserable. The role of the United States in supporting the dictatorships in Egypt and elsewhere, or in supporting wars, has been sinister and certainly has added significantly to the misery. For no group in the region is this more true than for the Palestinians.