What Texas shows is that a state offering cheap labor and, less important, weak regulation can attract jobs from other states. I believe that the appropriate response to this insight is “Well, duh.” The point is that arguing from this experience that depressing wages and dismantling regulation in America as a whole would create more jobs — which is, whatever Mr. Perry may say, what Perrynomics amounts to in practice — involves a fallacy of composition: every state can’t lure jobs away from every other state.
In fact, at a national level lower wages would almost certainly lead to fewer jobs — because they would leave working Americans even less able to cope with the overhang of debt left behind by the housing bubble, an overhang that is at the heart of our economic problem.
So when Mr. Perry presents himself as the candidate who knows how to create jobs, don’t believe him. His prescriptions for job creation would work about as well in practice as his prayer-based attempt to end Texas’s crippling drought.
What will the chaps at the ratings agencies be thinking on Monday as they look at the runners and riders in the Republican Primary stakes.
Will they see the US facing Hobsons Choice. Will the choice be between electing an economically illiterate, religous fanatic, in the pocket of big business or big media as President, or watching them obstruct proper functioning of government for the following four years if they loose.
That might be described as disfunctional government.
Zhou added that China would continue seeking to diversify its reserves. The challenge it faces is finding suitable alternatives.
A commentary carried by state news agency Xinhua attacked the "madcap farce of brinksmanship" and warned that the deal "failed to defuse Washington's debt bomb for good, only delaying an immediate detonation by making the fuse an inch longer".
.....
Some Chinese economists warned spending cuts could affect China's growth by slowing the US recovery. "US consumption will be definitely hurt a lot by the austerity deal and we can no longer count on the once-biggest foreign market in the future," said Ding Yifan, a researcher at the Development Research Centre under the State Council.
Shockwaves will debilitate the markets in either case, and the global economy's fragile recovery will probably be reversed, and another recession could follow.
Because of these dire consequences, it is highly unlikely that Congress and the White House will fail to reach an agreement by Aug 2, unless hardliners in the Republican camp are crazy enough to trade the country's fate for President Barack Obama's scalp.
... At present, the key to reducing the federal deficit is to increase employment. The irony is, that to do so, the federal government has to temporarily increase spending. But since the majority of the unemployed workers have low levels of education and many of them have been laid off by the construction sector, a sensible way of re-employing them would be to start public projects in infrastructure. Given the current deadlock over the debt ceiling, however, this is not likely to happen.
It seems the Chinese Communist party reads Professor Krugman's work and wisdom.
I expect none of your readers will be daft enough to Google the ravings of Anders Behring Breivik and to download his 2083 Manifesto for European Freedom.
They can expect their IP addresses to show up on someones watch list, and can expect to have all sorts of trojans and keyloggers invade their machines.
A side effect will of course be to generate false positives that allow people who share the authors lunatic views to hide among the simply curious.
Watching people blazing off ammunition at God knows what, on the TV news clips, gives me an indication of the level of fire disciplie and hence the level of discipline of the overall force.
So the chaps from the rag tag Free Lybia Forces have captured an arms dump.
There are (officialy !!) no NATO boots on the ground to secure the dump.
I seem to recall that one of the things the US Army forgot to do in Iraq was to secure the arms dumps until it was too late.
So now every Tariq, Daoud, and Hakim will be off with his own load of RPG, AK, Milan, land mines, anti tank mines and whatever else people have peddled to the Ghadaffi regime over the past ten years.
Not a hope in hell of holding this alliance (if it ever was one) together.
It is time to drop a few euros, pounds, dollars and similar in the collection tin,
If Professor Cole is going to become the focus of a campaign to roll back the subversion of your liberties, and the creeping onset of fascism, he is going to need some very expensive lawyers.
Who shall we hold accountable at the International Crimiunal Court for firing on unarmed demonstrators at the border fence today and the subsequent murders?
Some junior Lt as platoon commander or Netanyahu, Liebermann, Barak or one of the Generals?
Maybe there is a nice warm cell waiting for Benny Gantz beside Mladic.
I am glad to see that you have seen the terrifying aspect of the disturbances in Syria.
There do not seem to be any firewalls that can stop the contagion spreading.
Your excellent recent piece on the untenable situation in Israel with the powder keg issue of Jerusalem makes the advent of some sort of civil war in Syria, just too close for comfort. The excellent Stratfor recently commented that despite what Netanyahu says the 1948 Armistice borders are far more defensible than those of today.
There are too many regional actors with conflicting agendas in the region for us to safely allow the situation to deteriorate much further.
I have not yet seen any sensible description of the Levant region outcome in the trianglular battle between Turkey, Iran and Israel for hegemony in the region.
Sucking Turkey into the instability would be a worst case outcome.
they reject the notion of Western troops fighting alongside them. Good for them! Introducing ground infantry from Europe would be a political disaster and would lend ammunition to those who see the United Nations intervention as a form of neo-imperialism.
I do hope that somone isn't funding the introduction of 'Contractors' in place of regular infantry from the Old Colonial Powers.
This would get around the minor problem with the wording of UNSCR 1973.
However it is quite embarrassing that the strongest military alliance in the world should be having such a hard time defeating the army of a small north african country, despite their firepower.
Admiral Mullen's comment that they are moving to Stalemate makes them look very silly and will cause all the cheerleaders of a month ago to look for methods to escalate.
Meanwhile back in Syria which is the important theatre (not the misguided sideshow in Libya) demonstrators are being fired upon once again......
Has anyone done a recent study of the fate of the many millions of Iraqis who have been displaced?
One often wonders what has happened to the incomparable Riverbend and whether the refugees in Syria and Jordan are to be condemned to a similar fate to the Palestinian refugees.
Douma in Dmascus is where the Iraqi refugees first encounter UNWRA. Is the unrest there going to drag those 2 million of the disposessed into trouble? One rather hopes not.
With the publication of the Saudi US machinations against Syria, and Lebanon, and presumably Iran, the libyan intervention looks like a diversion to tie up forces that might maintain a ceasefire and no fly zone in these areas.
The trouble I find with your position is that you set a precedent, despite you pooh pooing the idea. The precedent is set in the minds of the general public who expect their governments to do something and provide pulpit for congressional demagoguery.
If you substitute Syria for Libya you start to get the kind of thinking shown in today's New York Times.
Syria, however, is the more urgent crisis — one that could pose a thorny dilemma for the administration if Mr. Assad carries out a crackdown like that of his father and predecessor, Hafez al-Assad, who ordered a bombardment in 1982 that killed at least 10,000 people in the northern city of Hama. Having intervened in Libya to prevent a wholesale slaughter in Benghazi, some analysts asked, how could the administration not do the same in Syria?
Though no one is yet talking about a no-fly zone over Syria, Obama administration officials acknowledge the parallels to Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi. Some analysts predicted the administration will be cautious in pressing Mr. Assad, not because of any allegiance to him but out of a fear of what could follow him — a Sunni-led government potentially more radical and Islamist than his Alawite minority government.
I am indeed chewing gum while I walk by rembering that the first thing you do when you move an artillery battery in anywhere is plan how to get it back out again.
I echo the words of Guido Westerwelle that "It is easy to iamgine how to invade somewhere, far harder to figure out how to get out again".
From a practical point of view where do you draw the line at the amount of violence a government may legitimately use to maintain order among its citizens?
There is always the danger that some charismatic individual will declare himself Messias or Mahdi or Palin and will lead his/her followers on an orgy of pillage. If you look at the casualty figures at Omdurman you can see what the results of this can be. Hafez al Assad had no choice in Hama.
If you substitute Saudi Arabia for Libya where on earth do you end up?
The insitution of a 'no fly zone' as a pallitive where we are in fact lending some local heroes air superiority, has a poor reputation since it was used in Afghanistan.
The Mediterranean is a difficult area where getting sucked into fighting small wars should be avoided. Small wars tend to grow into larger wars that need large armies to finish them. Try asking yourself who has a large army in the Middle East and North Africa and see what sort of a mess you end up with when they start moving. The Arab League supported the No Fly zone becasue they have 1.5 million Egyptian citizens working in Libya.
One wonders why President Sarkozy isn't railing at President Boutefliqa in Algeria. Perhaps "Algerie Francaise" is too emotional a phrase to be heard during the presidentielle?
The only note of hope I see is that there might be a 90 day timelimit on the North African intervention. That gives us time to imagine the outcome in Libya with Ghadaffi still in power, and with AN Other in power.
If we are lucky then the shooting might have died down by then. If not and the Levant is in flames then we will have a good old fashioned problem on our hands.
I wonder if the Russians will manage to upgrade the Iranian air defences in time.
It is clear that Nicholas Sarkozy, the President of France has taken leave of his senses and is threatening all and sundry with war. The stress of being third in the opinion polls prior to next year´s elections has obviously got to him. He is quite obviously trying to position himself to the right of Marine LePen in stoking hostility to Arabs, Muslims and immigrants.
The UK Prime Minsiter is quite obviously a throwback to an earlier age, who has engaged Niall Fergusson the Imperialist historian to rewrite the history syllabus. He has quite obviously caught Blair disease and is following the lead of the crazed Sarkozy.
It is hard not to associate these events with the parlous state of the UK economy and the exisitence of two large oil companies BP and Total who would quite like to get their hands on the Libyan oil and gas fields, thus delivering the objective of the Iraq invasion, i.e. cheap oil and tax revenues.
The intervention of the purposeless NATO organisation in North Africa looks like a Trojan Horse for Africom the homeless US command based in Stuttgart.
The recent reports of unrest in Syria, being encouraged by US politicians fills me with dread.
If anyone says NATO in the same sentence as Syria in the next six months, I will assume that the whole episode has been cooked up in Tel Aviv with the support of the revived neocons.
I will not speculate on the relationship between Sarkozy and the Israelis.
From where I stand, the apropriate places for no fly zones are Gaza and Lebanon.
I am disapointed that very few people other than the perceptive Vladimir Putin and Guido Westerwelle the German Foreign Minister seem to have stood back and wondered what is going on, and reacted apropriately.
It remains to be seen whether the Turks can be sidlined as a rising power in the Mediterranean and Middle East, as seems to be then Israeli/ Sarkozy objective, and how the endgame is morphed into an all out attack on Iran.
What an excellent, well written, balanced and comprehensive piece.
The Japanese Nuclear Accident highlights the need for an alternative Energy source for Europe. There are 50,000 demonstrator who are thinking "We told you so" this morning as they listen to the Bundeskanzlerin.
The project to bring High Voltage DC to Germany from the Sahara has been analysed extensively by Deutsche Aerospace for the Desertec project, which should be able to supply up to 25% of Europe's power needs.
Now all we need is a bit of political stability in North Africa.
One of your clear sighted analyses of the politcal and military risk associated with comitting to this course of action would be marvellously instuctive.
Haaretz reports the Google manager you reported missing is to be released.
The government is also expected to release a Google marketing manager who was detained during the anti-government demonstrations calling for the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak, who has ruled the country for 30 years.
David Mack is a Middle East Institute scholar, a former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state for Near East affairs, and a former U.S. ambassador to the United Arab Emirates.
The answer to a lot of your questions is the well known procrastination technique.
This gives the police time to track down the leadership of the second layer of the opposition and lock them up.
Facebook profiles, for example, can be a boon for government intelligence collectors, who can use updates and photos to pinpoint movement locations and activities and identify connections among various individuals, some of whom may be suspect for various activities. (Visible Technologies, a software firm that specializes in monitoring social media has received funding from In-Q-Tel, the CIA’s venture capital firm, and many Western intelligence services have start-up budgets to develop Internet technologies that will enable even deeper mining of Internet-user data.)
Read more: Social Media as a Tool for Protest | STRATFOR
Cloud computing techniques offer the opportunity for any intel agency to use virtually unlimited processing power to track and map the disaffected.
I suspect that your (and the Muslim Brotherhood's) suspicions that the negotiations between Suleiman and the MB are a ruse are correct.
Robin Niblett's suggestion that we won't know for a couple of years if there is a deeper and better led underground movement waiting to come out is probably correct. It would be a typical result of the frustrated protests, to generate a radicalised and politicised broad based opposition.
Prime Minister Nazif and his colleagues from University of Cairo who held minsterial positions will be a loss. I have met some of them and formed a favourable view of them.
As technocrats their knowledge and competence was creating some quite interesting proejcts , and integrating Egypt with Europe particularly in the telecommunications system.
How an air force offcier will cope with some of the appalling structural and infrastructure problems that will require very subtantial investment over a long term will be interesting to see.
The Urban Planning problems in Cairo alone are staggering. As you know, the statue of Rameses was moved from Rameses square , outside the railway station, to a location outside the city becasue the air pollution was eating away the stsue.
A walk around the district near Ibn Tullun Mosque gives you a picture of what life is like for the Urban poor.
Who is publishing work on these subjects? Robin Nibelett from Chatham House in his interview from Davos says nothing can change for at least five years.
He finishes with a reference to a worry about civilan control of the Military. As the CIA seems to have decided to run a private war inside Pakistan this is troubling with a danger of the commanding general in Afghanistan wanting to follow suit.
Perhaps most importantly, moving toward a strategy of offshore balancing would help us tame our fearsome national-security state, which has grown alarmingly powerful since 9/11. Core civil liberties are now under threat on the home front and the United States routinely engages in unlawful behavior abroad. Civilian control of the military is becoming increasingly problematic as well. These worrisome trends should not surprise us; they are precisely what one expects when a country engages in a broadly defined and endless global war against terror and more generally commits itself to worldwide hegemony. Never-ending militarization invariably leads to militarism and the demise of cherished liberal values. It is time for the United States to show greater restraint and deal with the threats it faces in smarter and more discerning ways. That means putting an end to America’s pursuit of global dominance and going back to the time-honored strategy of offshore balancing.
The significance of the U.S. decision to stop pushing for a moratorium, which was reported on Tuesday, is that Obama is refusing to give Netanyahu a seal of approval to build in Jerusalem. He also isn't giving out any Christmas presents if Israel is so kind as to comply with the road map and respect international law. The president also understands that after three months of a second settlement freeze, he would have found himself without any kind of agreement and facing repeated Arab demands to extend the freeze again, necessitating another exhausting bargaining session with Netanyahu.
The U.S. announcement has been in the offing for a number of days, but was held off until the hysteria over the Carmel fire died down. The Americans acceded to the entreaties of the Palestinians and their friends in the Arab states, who demanded that Obama finally announce who the good guys are and who the bad guys are.
Do you think they are being deliberately "agent provocateur" and using their Agent in Place Dennis Ross to provoke a shooting war in collusion with US Generals who actually want to win something?
Remember the French Generals who were defeated at Dien Bien Phu and went on to the killing zones of Algeria. plus ca change...
This news endorses the arguments of neo-conservatives in the US, who always argued that the Arab monarchies themselves privately favoured attacking Iran.
Not much emerged that had not already been leaked On the other hand, it also emphasises the deep gulf between these monarchies and their own peoples, who - according to opinion polls - strongly oppose an attack on Iran, and the extremely two-faced approach of these states to their relationship with the US and Israel, and indeed to the world in general.
Here, Wikileaks may be of real importance: partly by increasing Iranian hostility to the Gulf States - though the Iranians were already aware of the Gulf princes' fear of them - but even more importantly by increasing Arab popular contempt for the Gulf monarchies.
.........
Finally, there is the wider question as to whether such leaks are a good or bad thing. After careful thought and with certain reservations, I'd have to say that on balance they are good.
Far too much misinformation and outright lying has surrounded the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Overall, we in the West now live in an atmosphere of security hysteria and obsessive secrecy that would have filled our ancestors with horror.
If the threat of more Wikileaks releases makes this less likely in future, so much the better.
As to the effects on the tender sensibilities of Silvio Berlusconi, Vladimir Putin and Hamid Karzai of private US official opinions of them - well, how very tragic. The more these people know of how the outside world regards them the better for their countries. From this point of view, Wikileaks might almost be seen as rather a good way for a US administration to pass on candid messages that it could not possibly deliver officially.
On the other hand, I don’t see the leaks as the end of the world. Most of the authors of the cables have been rotated to another embassy by now, and leaders come and go. There is no evidence of anyone being killed because of the leaks, though one German spy for the US has been summarily fired.
The corrosive effect of the Wikileaks will not be immediately apparent.
However the breakdown of trust in the rulers by the ruled will take effect though a greater degree of cynicism. The German spy you refer to was in fact the Chef de Cabinet of the German Foreign Minister. Unlike Wili Brandt, who had nurtured one of Markus Wolf's people in his office, Mr Westerwelle has not resigned. (yet)
The UK Foreign Minsiter and Defence Minister have revealed themselves to be Fellow Travellers of the US, in their fawning competiton tonoutdo each other in pledging allegiance to the US and order more military hardware from them.
Elias Murr, the Lebanese Defense Minister, has not resigned (or fled which would be more sensible) from the Lebanese government for colluding with the enemy, the Outlaw State of Israel, to advise them as to how to invade his country.
Much as the Crowned Heads of Europe united against Revolutionary France, the Autocracies of the Middle East are uniting with the abusers of the Palestinians against the Iranians. Does the combination of victory in Iraq, Wikileaks and the equivalents of the Cannonade at Valmy where the sans culottes broke the vaunted Austrians, in Southern Lebanon in 2006 and Gaza in 2008 not give strength to the morality rhetoric propounded by Ayatollah Khoimeni?
Just as French Revolutionary ideas motivated Wolfe Tone and the United Irishmen in 1798, will not the success of the Iranian Revolution in repelling the Evil Empire for thirty years, cause the lid to come off the pressure cooker in the Arab States?
Does the revelation that the Yemeni President has given a free hand to US forces to attack his people, destroy any remaining legitimacy that he might have had?
Much as the Revolutions of 1848 died down quite quickly the immediate effect of the wikileaks will blow over soon.
However just as infection with syphilis takes years to wreak its effect, the wikileaks will be one of number of factors to destabilise the Middle East and cause the US European allies to abandon them to their own mess.
At risk of incurring your professorial wrath for a C- student's trick, I quote from the Wikpedia entry on 1848, and leave it to your readers to find their way to the Commune in Paris, and VI Lenin's train arriving at Finland Station in St Peterburg in 1917 and the many Heroes of the Soviet Union who died in final battle for Berlin in 1945.
Origins These revolutions arose from such a wide variety of causes that it is difficult to view them as resulting from a coherent movement or social phenomenon. Numerous changes had been taking place in European society throughout the first half of the 19th century. Both liberal reformers and radical politicians were reshaping national governments. Technological change was revolutionizing the life of the working classes. A popular press extended political awareness, and new values and ideas such as popular liberalism, nationalism and socialism began to spring up. A series of economic downturns and crop failures, particularly those in the year 1846, produced starvation among peasants and the working urban poor.
Galician slaughter (polish "Rzeź galicyjska") by Jan Lewicki (1795-1871), (was a massacre of Polish nobles by Polish peasants in Galicia between early 1846 and late 1848.)Large swathes of the nobility were discontented with royal absolutism or near-absolutism. In 1846 there had been an uprising of Polish nobility in Austrian Galicia, which was only countered when peasants, in turn, rose up against the nobles.[6] Additionally, an uprising by democratic forces against Prussia occurred in Greater Poland.
Next the middle classes began to agitate. Working class objectives tended to fall in line with those of the middle class. Although Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels had written at the request of the Communist League in London (an organization consisting principally of German workers) The Communist Manifesto (published in German in London on February 21, 1848), once they began agitating in Germany following the March insurrection in Berlin, their demands were considerably reduced. They issued their "Demands of the Communist Party in Germany"[7] from Paris in March; the pamphlet only urged unification of Germany, universal suffrage, abolition of feudal duties, and similar middle class goals.
Results The Italian and German movements did provide an important impetus. Italy was unified in 1861, while Germany in 1871 was unified under Bismarck after Germany's 1870 war with France. Some disaffected German bourgeois liberals (the Forty-Eighters, many atheists and freethinkers) migrated to the United States after 1848, taking their money, intellectual talents, and skills out of Germany.
The revolutions did inspire lasting reform in Denmark as well as the Netherlands. Denmark was governed by a system of absolute monarchy since the seventeenth century. King Christian VIII, a moderate reformer but still an absolutist, died in January 1848 during a period of rising opposition from farmers and liberals. The new king, Frederick VII, met the liberals demands and installed a new Cabinet that included prominent leaders of the National Liberal Party. He accepted a new constitution — see the Constitution of Denmark — agreeing to share power with a bicameral parliament called the Rigsdag.[15] The liberal constitution did not extend to Schleswig, leaving the Schleswig-Holstein Question unanswered.,
King William II of the Netherlands, afraid of the revolutions spreading into the Netherlands, ordered Johan Rudolf Thorbecke to revise the constitution. Thorbecke's revision resulted in the king losing most of his powers in favor of the parliament, effectively turning the Netherlands into a Constitutional Monarchy.
1848 was a watershed year for Europe, and many of the changes of the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries have origins in this revolutionary period.
It seems we are condemned to live in Interesting Times on a diet of Tom and Jerry's (sic) ice cream.
I suspect you may have missed the point of the whole brouha.
What you are actually seeing is an instance of cyberwar, in this case instead of shutting down the world's financial trading system, or turning off the electrcitiy control systems for a few cities, they have opened up world access to a database of candid views on allies and enemies of the declining superpower.
It destroys quite a bit of US soft power, as reading through many of the examples casues one to come away confirmed in the view that "USA is Baaad!!!" and confirms much of the Left Wing comment for many years that it is a poodle for the Outlaw State of Israel.
Wikileaks is a "Non State Actor" equivalent to the 19th century Anarchists, and the potential to cause damage bears out much of the analysis in the British Government's recent National Security Strategy.
Just as a few individuals who hijacked four aircraft in 2001 caused major upheaval in the world and brought about two wars in retalliation and a financial catastrophe arising from the need to pay for them, this destabilisation of the messaging systems of the US government is likely to lead to accidents.
The loose cannon aspect of the 19th century anarchists eventually led to an Archduke's driver taking a wrong turn in Sarajevo, bringing his passengers into the field of fire of a boy with a handgun.
Sadly I suspect we are seeing the lighting of a few fuses towards the powderkegs in the Middle East and South West Asia.
Still, looking on the bright side, the revelation that Mr Lieberman is The Kremlin's Agent in Place or Agent of Influence might finally lead to his arrest and incarceration
However, scenarios for world wars are not hard to find. Israel’s tensions with its neighbours are such that the latest peace initiative is provoking more scepticism than hope. Conflict in the Middle East is likely to involve Iran, a state which refuses to be coerced by Washington. Iran in turn could unite a war in the Middle East with the war in Afghanistan. Once the fuse has been lit, it runs eastwards through Pakistan to India and China, south to Iraq, and north to the “stans”.
This is a messier way of understanding the onset of major war than we have become used to. Shaped by the final stages of the Second World War, our idea of major war is a global war waged by superpowers, fighting in the name of irreconcilable ideologies, and ready to fight to the finish. We throw in the use of nuclear weapons for good measure. That may have been how the Second World War ended, but it is not how it began. Major wars can begin as an aggregation of lesser wars. Even the most power-crazed tyrant prefers to fight in bite-sized chunks in successive smaller wars.
Despite being in the fourth or fifth century since the Enlightenment there are still bands of of fundamentalists who are as inflexible on the interpretation of ancient texts as the Inquisition was at the time of Galileo. The Torah has no standing in International Law.
Of particular worry, regarding the Judaisation of Jerusalem, are the people of questionable sanity who propose to rebuild the Jewish Temple on the site of the Haram al Sharif. This would provoke the widest outbreak of shooting seen for fifty years as hundreds of millions of offended Muslims react to the sacrilege. The last gasp of the Israeli state as it is overrun would be to launch nuclear weapons at its neighbours leaving much of the Middle East a contaminated wasteland. (and killing me if I am in Cairo, Damascus, Beirut, Amman, Riyadh or Isfahan or Dubai). http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2371847/posts
One of the underlying causes of the Thirty Years War was the obsolescence of the Treaty of Augsburg. The Israeli non compliance with the terms of the Hague and Geneva Conventions and with a stream of UNSCR indicates we are seeing a similar breakdown.
So it is now time to curb and disarm the Israelis and remove their offensive weapons and capability before they start a conflagration that gets a lot of us killed and destroys a great deal of the Eastern Mediterranean and the Persian Gulf, that spreads through the Balkans to the Muslim minorites in Western Europe.
If outside military intervention is required to remove the squatters from Palestinian territory then so be it.
BBC radio mentions that the offer includes immunity from war crimes charges arising from their assault on Gaza and their recent piracy and murder on the high seas and a block on any investigation of their nuclear facilities.
I feel a sense of deep anger that Outlaw State to whom International Law no longer applies has managed to, yet again, subvert the US government.
The US has paid the blackmailer and will now have to keep paying.
The US is no longer a credible intermediary for negotiations.
The Outlaw State is as dangerous in the Middle East as Serbia was in the Balkans a hundred years ago.
Obama had no intention of bringing Kashmir up publicly in Delhi (he isn’t that clueless). As for visiting Islamabad, he’ll do that next year on his way to Kabul.
anger was further stoked by the President’s decision to leave yesterday on a long trip to India and the Far East. Although it is being sold here as some sort of trade mission – though he is likely to find that whatever America might want to sell in that region, the locals can make it just as well and at a small fraction of the cost – his departure is viewed as an escape from the line of fire.
He is also being heavily criticised for going to a country with a recent history of terrorist outrages, necessitating a security operation that is adding a further large chunk to his country’s national debt. As well as his taking 500 staff, 13 aircraft and four helicopters have already flown in a fleet of cars and communications equipment, and no fewer than 34 US warships are said to be hovering off the coast. Some of his critics here were already drawing comparisons with the court of Louis XVI just before the French Revolution, and this hasn’t helped.
His Republican opponents are on the march against him. But so are elements within his own party. America’s latest unemployment figures were confirmed yesterday still to be 9.5 per cent, large parts of whole cities are derelict, and average incomes are tumbling. A president elected to give hope to precisely these people has not only failed, but seems to become ever more apart from them. The Democrats are worried.
The first analysis of Obama's options after the elections that suggested that attacking Iran was the thing to do appeared in one of Stratfor's analyses about a month ago.
Since then it has been supported by the likes of the delightful Caroline Glick in Jerusalem Post which may suggest where the idea originated or found traction.
This lazy thinking by David Broder overlooks the other op ed piece in NYTimes recently pointing out that the US infrastucture like the UK's is a hundred years old and starting to fall apart.
If you want to stimulate the US economy you can do the same as Adolf Hitler and build infrastructure. Admittedly his autobahns were designed to allow a much larger repeat of Ludendorf's achievement at Massurian lakes where he switched armies between fronts on interior lines on railways thus allowing him to defeat a numerically superior force piecemeal.
Keynes, as I remember it, approved.
Of course if Mr Murdoch manages to take over all the world's communications media we may hear the endless drumbeat of war for quite some time. Shades of the Daily Mail campaign for more Dreadnoughts before world war one.
Thank you for your recent educational and inspiring pieces on the imminent elections in the greater and lesser states of Lunacy.
As I read a very catholic variety of sources I had a flash of insight by connecting what you have written, with some of the other sources I am reading, in particular Culture Shock by Kevin Sinclair.
As I read the desription of the haranguing of dissidents on Execution Hill, watched from Hong Kong, followed by their execution by firing squad I suddenly recognised the Tea Party (Mad Hatter) phenomenon as an old friend.
I wonder if it may help your readers with a wider understanding of what we are seeing by reminding them of the Great Proletarian Cultual Revolution inspired by the great Mao Zhe Dong and the Gang of Four.
The Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution or simply the Cultural Revolution was a violent mass movement in the People’s Republic of China that started in 1966 and officially ended with Mao Zedong's death in 1976. It resulted in social, political, and economic upheaval; widespread persecution; and the destruction of antiques, historical sites, and culture.
It was launched by Mao Zedong, the chairman of the Communist Party of China, on May 16, 1966. He alleged that liberal bourgeois elements were permeating the party and society at large and that they wanted to restore capitalism. Mao insisted, in accordance with his theory of permanent revolution, that these elements should be removed through revolutionary violent class struggle by mobilizing China's youth who, responding to his appeal, then formed Red Guard groups around the whole country.
The movement subsequently spread into the military, urban workers, and the party leadership itself. It even took on extreme and surrealistic forms such as the (unsuccessful) attempt to change the meaning of the red traffic light to "go".[1] Although Mao himself officially declared the Cultural Revolution to have ended in 1969, its active phase lasted until the death of Lin Biao in a plane crash in 1971. The power struggles and political instability between 1969 and the arrest of the Gang of Four in 1976 are now also widely regarded as part of the Revolution.
After Mao's death in 1976, forces within the party that opposed the Cultural Revolution, led by Deng Xiaoping, gained prominence, and most of the political, economic, and educational reforms associated with the Cultural Revolution were abandoned by 1978. The Cultural Revolution has been treated officially as a negative phenomenon ever since. The people involved in instituting the policies of the Cultural Revolution were persecuted. In its official historical judgment of the Cultural Revolution in 1981, the Party assigned chief responsibility to Mao Zedong, but also laid significant blame on Lin Biao and the Gang of Four for causing its worst excesses.
We well remember the Red Guards and the Little Red Book and their devastating effecton the Chinese economy.
Wikipedia mentions
Legacy
The effects of the Cultural Revolution directly or indirectly touched essentially all of China's population. During the Cultural Revolution, much economic activity was halted, with "revolution", regardless of interpretation, being the primary objective of the country. The start of the Cultural Revolution brought huge numbers of Red Guards to Beijing, with all expenses paid by the government, and the railway system was in turmoil. Countless ancient buildings, artifacts, antiques, books, and paintings were destroyed by Red Guards. By December 1967, 350 million copies of Mao's Quotations had been printed.[21]
Elsewhere, the 10 years of the Cultural Revolution also brought the education system to a virtual halt. The university entrance exams were cancelled during this period, not to be restored until 1979 under Deng Xiaoping. Many intellectuals were sent to rural labour camps, and many of those who survived left China shortly after the revolution ended.[citation needed] Many survivors and observers[who?] suggest that almost anyone with skills over that of the average person was made the target of political "struggle" in some way. According to most Western observers as well as followers of Deng Xiaoping, this led to almost an entire generation of inadequately educated individuals. However, this varies depending on the region, and the measurement of literacy did not resurface until the 1980s.[22] Some counties in the Zhanjiang district, for example, had illiteracy rates as high as 41% some 20 years after the revolution. The leaders denied any illiteracy problems from the start. This effect was amplified by the elimination of qualified teachers—many of the districts were forced to rely upon chosen students to re-educate the next generation.[22]
Mao Zedong Thought had become the central operative guide to all things in China. The authority of the Red Guards surpassed that of the army, local police authorities, and the law in general. China's traditional arts and ideas were ignored, with praise for Mao being practiced in their place. People were encouraged to criticize cultural institutions and to question their parents and teachers, which had been strictly forbidden in Confucian culture. This was emphasized even more during the Anti-Lin Biao, Anti-Confucius Campaign. Slogans such as "Parents may love me, but not as much as Chairman Mao" were common.
The Cultural Revolution also brought to the forefront numerous internal power struggles within the Communist party, many of which had little to do with the larger battles between Party leaders, but resulted instead from local factionalism and petty rivalries that were usually unrelated to the "revolution" itself. Because of the chaotic political environment, local governments lacked organization and stability, if they existed at all. Members of different factions often fought on the streets, and political assassination, particularly in rural-oriented provinces, was common. The masses spontaneously involved themselves in factions, and took part in open warfare against other factions. The ideology that drove these factions was vague and sometimes nonexistent, with the struggle for local authority being the only motivation for mass involvement.
The symptoms are unmistakeable: The rejection of science in favour of mindless slogans. The rejection of the knowledge and experience of the highly educated and trained in favour of the voodoo economics and wacky social ideas put forward by floozies.
Your only consolation is perhaps that it is not quite as extreme as Pol Pot's experiment in Cambodia.
We Europeans with our far more stable and developed societies and a wealth of history to point out to us the things that should be avoided can probably help by offering political asylum to the persecuted intelectuals (including tenured history professors) and bourgeois reactionaries, provided they can get over the borders without being spotted by the local cadres.
So when the Thought Police knock on the door to urge you to "Vote Bimbo", don't panic. Start preparing your Escape Kit.
I wonder if this piece in Jerusalem Post and Mr Murdcoh's recent eulogy of Margaret Thatcher has anything to do with his attempt to buy the remainder of Sky that he doesn't already own.
Among all the smoke, mirrors, heat and dust of the British Defence review that apparently leaves the UK with air superiorty over the Taleban, (though the jets can't be deployed in Aghansatan becasue it is too dustry) and will build aircraft carriers that might not have aircraft, Professor Hew Strachan writes an insightful article.
It is interesting to note his reference to the possibility of war in the Middle East.
If the worst case Middle Eastern scenario were played out, what would Britain’s position be? The answer would probably depend on the United States. Britain is America’s junior partner, as the Prime Minister reminded us, and the United States would almost certainly be involved in such a war. And that is not the only possible major war exercising the Pentagon. The US’s fixation with the rise of China is almost obsessive, and is frequently couched in terms which carry pre-1914 resonances. Can one power rise and the other decline without each fighting the other as they pass?
It is hard to imagine going to war against friends and trading partners in support of an outlaw state that ignores international law and UNSC Resolutions and engages in piracy and murder on the high seas.
The sooner the Netanyahu government falls and hard truths are stated to the squatters in East Jerusalem and the Palestinian Territories the better.
"If NATO would agree to reassign the troops now beginning to withdraw from Afghanistan to Palestine, and would face down any Israeli intransigence, now that would be a plan."
NATO command of such troops would be a problem. A US general commanding would be open to interference from the Tea Partiers and congressmen who have been bought by AIPAC.
EU command or UN command perhaps but probably not NATO
The mission statement would be a problem as would the problem of what to do with the the squatters who fight back.
Throwing them into temporary cages would be something of a PR disaster, particularly if it were German tropops just returned from Afghanistan running the cages.
A first step might be to stop selling offensive weapons to the Israelis. Selling them submaries is making a rod for our own backs, as they would attack the supply ships for a landing force and could theoretically threaten London or Paris or Barcelona with a nuclear tipped cruise missile.
The repsonse to a real attack would be to turn Tel Aviv into a glass lined crater.
Continuing to sell them submarines that we would later be obliged to sink is folly.
"Malik said the government had put across a strong message that Pakistan was a self-respecting nation and knows how to defend its sovereignty. “No country can tolerate breach of its sovereignty,” he added."
Do you think he has noticed people firing missiles from drones at his citizens or the 3000 man marauders crossing the border mentioned in Woodward's book?
And if I were the US Department of the Treasury I wouldn’t expect much Iraqi help with those sanctions on Iranian banks.
I must confess that I am now a little bewildered.
One of the big problems in the Middle East is how to reconstruct Iraq, ( and Syria and Iran) given that they all suffer from major defects in their infrastucture.
Turkey is the natural conduit for delivery of this effort into the area with container traffic from the recently upgraded port of Tartous being a secondary route.
It is quite obvious that these countries all will become a common trading bloc with Syria already haveing a free trade area with Turkey.
I fail to see how one can apply sactions (or an arms embargo) against any part of the area sucessfully.
It must be time for one of your longer and more erudite essays on the scenarios for development of the area between the Caspian, and the Straits of Hormuz.
The joker in the pack, as always, will be the Outlaw State which engages in Piracy and Murder on the High Seas and wanton destruction of infrastucture either by high explosives or by destabilising the software of European Manufacturing Companies.
The Norwegians have got the right idea by denying assistance to a program to equip the priates with further offensive weapons.
One of Bill Clinton's best decisions was to bomb Belgrade and deploy a few divisions in response to the Serbian attempts at Ethnic Cleansing of Kosovo in 1999.
Following Clinton's precedent, it must be time for someone to tell Mr Lieberman that anyone attempting to implement his "to Hell or to Connaght" scheme will provoke the bombing of Tel Aviv, Haifa, Ashdod, Eilat and Atlit, by EU air power, followed by deployment of EU forces.
Enter Baroness Ashton stage left.
Is anyone using Miloshevich old cell at the Hague these days?
Perhaps the most worrying part of the slight of hand associated with the present negotiations is the continuing efforts to cut off East Jerusalem and turn the whole city into one controlled by the Orthodox.
Once this happens, the lunatics with an agenda to build a third Jewish Temple on the site of Haram al Sharif will push on with their activities
I would argue that any attempt to do so would provoke a general outbreak of shooting in the Middle East, with a spillover onto the European mainland.
It looks as if it is getting to be time for the EU to think in terms of deploying a force West of the Jordan to prevent any further encroachment on Palestinian Territory.
If their mission statement includes removing the squatters form the "Settlements" then so be it.
The first task, following Rupert Smith's methodology, is to decide what size of task it might be. It looks to be bigger than a Division size mission.
The supply of a good air defence system to Lebanon will be an interesting conundrum.
UNSCR 1701 should prevent the Isreali Air Force from generating Sonic booms by going supersonic over Beirut.
An Early Warning System covering the aproaches to Tyre, Beirut and the Bekaa valley might usefully be integrated with the Syrian one to cover the aproaches to Damascus and Tartus.
I have read Ms Glick´s pieces in the Jerusalem Post for the past two or three years ever since Helena Cobban highlighted her rather irrational views in a quite fascinating castigation. Part of Ms Glick´s problem may be related to a dual personality as a concurrent US citizen and a Zionist editor and a conflation of both.
Helena´s comments on Caroline´s suggestion (from a non NATO member) that Turkey be thrown out of NATO is relevant, and has been a continuing theme over the last few years.
Comment from... Helena, at August 15, 2008 10:33 AM:
Glick's rant is particularly amusing and ill-conceived because she fails to make any mention of the fact that Erdogan has been one of the international leaders who have rushed to Georgia to express support for Saak in the past few days...
Ah, but that doesn't fit into her tightly Manichean, dyadical, "you're either with us or against us" frame. Her description of life in Turkey under Erdogan is also unrecognizable. (In fact, life in Israel is considerably more theocratic than life in Turkey under the AKP.)
Why does the JP publish this nonsense?
At times the views expressed are bordering on the "rational but extreme" and at other times she seems to go off the rails entirely.
I did wonder if this might be caused by her forgetting to take her tablets, if any have been prescribed, but lately I have wondered if it might be linked to a more lunar cycle.
Whatever the reason, I suspect that Jerusalem Post might usefully wonder if its deputy editor is enhancing its credibility by publishing these unusual views.
But then, they publish Krauthammer too, so perhaps they do.
One of the items commented on in the Wikileaks papers is that the opposition in Afghanistan have been using MANPADS against Nato aircraft. It was the introduction of these weapons that finally broke the Russians.
As a great fuss has been made of delivery of more helicopters to Afghanistan by MoD in UK, to avoid needless casualties from road travel, the extent of the MANPADS deployment needs to be explained. Dinging a Chinook loses you 30 troops at a time.
If it is substantial then it is time to go time. (Pakistan makes their own indigenous Stinger However, local indigenous version of Stinger missiles fielded by the Pakistani Army was used in the Kargil War and shot down an Indian Air Force Mi-8 Helicopter[citation needed] and a MiG-21 aircraft[citation needed], as well as damaging a Canberra reconnaissance aircraft[citation needed]. Pakistan has begun phasing out its inventory of the original American made models completely. The Pakistan indigenous Stinger missile is said to contain an improved IR seeker to better follow its intended target.)
It seems the sane and sensible people are speaking up.
The highest approval rating of the comments on Professor Krugman's piece (from a Naval Commander) goes like this
No, Dr. Krugman, it's not Bush that the Republicans are addicted to. They are addicted to greed and to power and they are quite willing to throw the American middle class under the bus to get it. It's the mantra of the plutocrats that they truly are.
Right now America is limping along toward an abyss from which there is no return. If the Bushites gain power, we won't be limping, we'll be herded like lemmings over the edge of the cliff. Mitch McConnell and John Boehner are enemies of the American people and the most alarming thing about that fact is that the majority of the American people don't realize it.
At this juncture the Republican strategy is to provoke more and more white Americans into fearing blacks. Obama and his team know this and that's why they blundered so badly in reacting to the Shirley Sherrod debacle. Just the thought of Glenn Beck ranting and raving about Obama Administration being racist sent them spinning into the maelstrom without first getting a full background briefing.
If white independents by into this and embrace the fear that the Republicans are fomenting, President Obama is toast.
Recommend Recommended by 1616 Readers
And to all those watching tonight from beyond our shores, from parliaments and palaces to those who are huddled around radios in the forgotten corners of our world - our stories are singular, but our destiny is shared,
As one of the people who listened to this address on my bedroom radio at some ungodly hour of the morning and breathed a sigh of relief, I am concerned to read Paul Krugman's piece in today's New York Times. He postulates a return to the unlamented policies of Bush the Younger.
From where I am standing, I am seeing sucessful implementation of sensible domestic legislation, to provide health insurance that is not tied to employment, and to regulate the banks who got both US and EU into the present mess. I am seeing failure in the insoluble Middle Eastern region and as you document, ongoing war in Afghanistan with the option of a restarted war in Iraq under the banner of a Kurdistan war.
Given that we have not forgotten the pitiful performance of the potential presidential nominee ex-Governor Palin, the idea of a return to the failed policies of the Noughties scares me.
As you have explained that American presidential elections turn on the marginal voters of a few swing states, can we depend on the sane and sensible members of the American electorate to overcome the propaganda of the American media (which Jospeh Nye admitted are defective in his recent Chatham House talk) and preserve us from a total economic and international relations breakdown.
It deserves far wider distribution, comment and explanation particularly to those in the US who are expecting the Iranians to try and anihalate the Israelis.
Thee seems to be a consensus building that troops will need to be deployed in the Jordan Valley and the West Bank and apparently Gaza. President Abbas is reported to be happy with the idea.
I am not sure that deploying US troops would be feasible, given the possibility of AIPAC pressure and the perception that they are fighting the Muslims. German, Polish and Turkish troops would be rather provocactive. That leaves the old mandate power Britain, the French, the Spanish and the Italians........ And of course, The Russians.
Part of their mission statement would have to be expelling the outlaw settlers from their hilltops and enclaves like Hebron, and tearing down the separation wall. It seems that certain segments of the Israeli Army might not obey orders to expel the outlaws.
I would appreciate one of your balanced and informed essays that discusses whether this action would be politically doable without setting off a major exchange of hostilities.
I understand the proximity of the US midterm elections. Of course it might be fun to put General Petraeus in charge of the operation once the elections are over.
Ahmet Davutoglu in his Chatham House speech makes it clear that Jerusalem and Masjid al Aksa are not to be touched without Turkey becoming seriously annoyed.
It is a European Scale project and involves integrating North Africa with Europe and providing alternative sources of supply to balance the higs and lows of sources.
The technology and economics were analysed by Deutsche Aerospace whose documentation is worth reading.
Thank you for the videos of the behaviour of the squatters in Hebron. In UK the provocative behaviour of the squatter lady would have had her arrested and charged with harrassment and conduct likely to lead to a breach of the peace.
I picked this quote up from Stephen Walt's blog and find it apropriate
You can't be afraid of words that speak the truth. I don't like words that hide the truth. I don't like words that conceal reality. I don't like euphemisms or euphemistic language. And American english is loaded with euphemisms. Because Americans have a lot of trouble dealing with reality. Americans have trouble facing the truth, so they invent a kind of a soft language to protect themselves from it. And it gets worse with every generation.
Nick Kristof's piece in NYTimes this morning and last week understates the level of misbehaviour of the squatters, observed by the Israeli Army who do not intervene, but starts to break through the wall of incomprehension in the US of the situation in Palestine.
If Education is a process of diminishing deception then Kristof's pieces are a valuable start in showing US citizens what is being done in their name. Analysis of the comments on his Facebook site reveals the division into those stating unconditional support for Israel Right or Wrong, those who are seeking further information, and those who understand and know the reality of what is happening.
By provding a window on the reality of the behaviour of the squatters you are providing President Obama a valuable service by illustrating a justification for his pressure on the government in Jerusalem.
Thank you so much for this piece, particularly the link between the Iraqi situation and the Lebanese situation.
Ayatollah Sistani will celebrate his 80th birthday on 4th August 2010. I wonder what the succession might be.
There is something of a feeling of deja vu about discussion coming back to Lebanon ten years after I started reading into Middle Eastern subjects starting with a few books on Lebanon, including yours and Nikkie Keddie's.
It is useful to speculate on whether the emergence of a Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon Alliance focussed on Economic Reconstruction might be a viable way forward in the area or whether the prospect will be derailled by the anachroistic ideas of the Israelis.
Note to company grade officers: Captain Souter wrapped his regimental colour around his waist and was taken prisoner because he looked like he would command a ransom.
The second (and more worrying one ) is a proposal by the Israeli Foreign Minister to dump Gaza in the lap of the EU and completely abandon their responsibilities as occupying power.
Taken together with Moshe Arens recent proposal for a One State Solution without the inclusion of the 1.5 million Gazans and Hosni Mubarak’s rejection of dumping the problem on Egypt the Israeli Agenda becomes clear.
I think this is something we would value your invaluable highly informed opinion on.
The second (and more worrying one ) is a proposal by the Israeli Foreign Minister to dump Gaza in the lap of the EU and completely abandon their responsibilities as occupying power.
Taken together with Moshe Arens recent proposal for a One State Solution without the inclusion of the 1.5 million Gazans and Hosni Mubarak's rejection of dumping the problem on Egypt the Israeli Agenda becomes clear.
I think this is something we would value your invaluable highly informed opinion on.
Your piece is of great importance in highlighting the error in the scale of what has been agreed against the amount that is required.
This seems to have been overlooked or disregarded by the UK newspapers where the Independent and Telegraph don't mention the measure on their front page and the Guardian's coverage is limited.
No timetable was issued for the publication of the list of banned items.
The crucial issue of whether commercial goods will be allowed to cross into Gaza to allow the recovery of its crippled economy was not explicitly addressed in the statements. Decisions are still pending, according to an Israeli official. Blair's office insisted that the intention was "to get the private sector going".
Aid agencies have cautioned that concrete implementation of any relaxation of the siege could be hampered by Israeli foot-dragging. "The siege must be ended, not just eased," said UN spokesman Chris Gunness. "Otherwise Israel continues to be in breach of international law."
The Times mentions the Turkish embargo on buying Israeli drones and tanks which may of course have an impact. (The Times)
Israel has been increasingly isolated since the killings, in particular from Turkey, its former strategic ally in the Muslim world. Yesterday Turkey froze billions of dollars in military deals with Israel, including one $5 billion (£3.4 billion) contract for 1,000 Israeli tanks. The announcement dealt a serious blow to a vital sector of the Israeli economy.
Cruel and unnecessary (This Inquiry looks more and more like the plot of a Marx Brothers film)
One of the members of the ministerial forum of seven was walking through the Knesset corridors on Monday, when he ran into someone. The latter told the minister that press photographers had just come from the home of Prof. Shabtai Rosenne, a member of the Turkel committee of inquiry into the Gaza flotilla episode, who is 93, wheelchair-ridden, has a permanent caregiver and was photographed in pajamas. The minister gave his interlocutor a stunned look.
"You're joking, right?" he asked.
"No," the man replied.
"Is this a joke or not?" the minister persisted.
"Absolutely not," the interlocutor said.
The minister repeated, "You have to tell me, seriously: Are you pulling my leg?"
"No, it's true," the other person repeated, a bit embarrassed.
The minister swallowed hard. "It doesn't look good," he mumbled to himself.
Even though he belongs to the exclusive, all-knowing forum that authorized the committee's composition, no one told the man about the physical condition of one of the three panel members, just as he had not been told all the details about the flotilla making its way to Gaza more than two weeks ago.
Probably not even the prime minister knew about Rosenne. The justice minister, Yaakov Neeman, and committee chairman Turkel met with the world-renowned jurist in his home. Afterward, Neeman told Netanyahu that Rosenne is "lucid."
At one point that day the premier and his aides even considered replacing Prof. Rosenne or asking him to step down, but both ideas were vetoed. The first, because of the tremendous PR damage it would do to the Prime Minister's Bureau, which would once again look like something out of a French farce; and the second, because it would be heartbreaking: The professor was photographed perusing a thick file entitled "The Gaza Flotilla." There he was, already at work. To take that away from him, especially as he has nothing wrong, would be cruelty akin to abusing the helpless.
Referring to the mention above of the Lord Chief Justice of England Lord Widgery, I think the age of the justices must be taken into account.
The Wikipedia entry describes his final few years as follows.
His later years in office were marred by persistent ill health and mental decline. In Private Eye[6] it was observed that "he sits hunched and scowling, squinting into his books from a range of three inches, his wig awry. He keeps up a muttered commentary of bad-tempered and irrelevant questions – 'What d'you say?', 'Speak up', 'Don't shout', 'Whipper-snapper', etc.". He resisted attempts to get him to resign until the last moment in 1980. For at least 18 months previously he had not been in control of either his administrative work or his legal pronouncements, and it soon became apparent that he was suffering from dementia, and he died two days following his 70th birthday in 1981.
Today's Daily Telegraph picks up Israeli comment along the same lines as mine.
Mr Netanyahu has angrily denounced such suggestions, insisting that the inquiry would be lawful and transparent. He gave warning that enemies, and even some allies, were involved in a campaign to destroy Israel.
"Dark forces from the Middle Ages are raging against us," he said. "We find ourselves in the midst of a difficult and continuous battle against the State of Israel."
But even some Israeli newspapers questioned the nature of an inquiry which will not be allowed to interview military officers involved in the raid and will instead focus on questions of international law. They also pointed out that the youngest member of the investigating committee is 75, while the oldest is 93.
"This will be a particularly inexpensive committee," columnist Nahum Barnea noted in the Yediot Ahronot newspaper. "There is no need to hear witnesses, and no need to crosscheck testimonies. What is necessary is a good kettle, a few cups of tea and a good bell, to ensure that the committee does not fall into a coma."
Mr Justice Stevens seems to agree that 35 years service at age 90 is a good innings.
I am astounded and offended that the comission of Inquiry includes a 93 year old Professor of Law and an 84 year old Retired Israeli General and that the chairman doesn't even believe in the process.
Even the Pope makes cardinals and bishops pack it in at 75.
One of the Observers joined the Friends of Israel group two weeks ago according to Haaretz.
The BBC's tone of astonishment and cynicism is quite right.
This is such a blatant insult to the intelligence of the Western World that it beggars belief. Tikkun Olam picks up the farcical nature of this display of contempt.
Ghada Karmi discusses the options for a Palestinian State in her book "Married to Another Man"
Simply providing a "State" that has no control over its frontiers and Utilities is rather useless. The Two Sate solution should be understood in an Irish context as Home Rule which was a placebo to keep Irish Nationalism quiet.
The point about frontiers is important because of the coastline of Gaza. Coastal states have what is described in The Law of the Sea as an exclusive Economic Zone strecthing 200 Nautical Miles out to Sea. The Gazan one would need to be divided with the Egyptians according to customary practice.
Israel has been trumpeting a find of major offshore gas fields in the last couple of weeks. It will be instructive to see whether these gas fields are located in what would be a Gazan Exclusive Economic Zone.
The need to police this zone then leads to the need for a Palestinian Navy to enforce the controls, thus undermining the case for a dimiltarised Palestinian state.
It would be intolerable if the efforts to drive the population of Gaza into Sinai were to deprive a Palestinian state of the revenue and power generation opportunities associated with these gas fields. Sixty years after the Nakba, allowing the Israeli state to steal the mineral rights of the descendants of the refugees of 1948 and 67 would be heinous.
The revenue from the gas would compensate for the prospective flight of venture capital from a future One State.
I agree with Ghada Karmi's recommendation of a One State solution, but that of course is contingent on removal of the Israeli Nuclear Weapons and the formation of a Palestinian Core Body of Competence that can provide a civil service and business class that can run the country on a par with their Jewish neighbours.
As I read your book I wondered why there seems to be no mention of water.
With Amman in danger of running out of drinking water and the Jordan river drying up and the Sea of galilee shrinking in the srought, something has to give soon.
The progress on Red Dead is disappointing
So what rivers to the North of the occupied territories might be useful to have?
What rivers to the West of Eilat might be useful to have?
This can only end in a lot of shooting and lot of people dead.
Once Al Quds is surrounded the crazies can start fiddling with the Haram al Sharif.
Sbig Brezinski talks about sending a NATO or EU force into the Jordan Valley. EU force is likely to be more non partisan and less open to the influence of the lobyists that Obama was talking about on TV last night.
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What you describe is the well researched Desertec project.
http://www.desertec.org/en/
The plan is to use the Algerian desert. It is closer to Europe.
Dear Professor Cole
I expect Department of Homeland Security have checked the Fire Alarms and Sprinklers in the Capitol Building.
Dear Professor Cole
I rather like Stepen Walts summary of Governor Perry.
"A trigger happy Christian Zionist".
http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/12/five_big_uncertainties
That sounds like a recipe for disaster.
Dear professor Cole
Professor Krugman weighs in too.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/15/opinion/the-texas-unmiracle.html?_r=1&hp
What Texas shows is that a state offering cheap labor and, less important, weak regulation can attract jobs from other states. I believe that the appropriate response to this insight is “Well, duh.” The point is that arguing from this experience that depressing wages and dismantling regulation in America as a whole would create more jobs — which is, whatever Mr. Perry may say, what Perrynomics amounts to in practice — involves a fallacy of composition: every state can’t lure jobs away from every other state.
In fact, at a national level lower wages would almost certainly lead to fewer jobs — because they would leave working Americans even less able to cope with the overhang of debt left behind by the housing bubble, an overhang that is at the heart of our economic problem.
So when Mr. Perry presents himself as the candidate who knows how to create jobs, don’t believe him. His prescriptions for job creation would work about as well in practice as his prayer-based attempt to end Texas’s crippling drought.
Dear Professor Cole
What will the chaps at the ratings agencies be thinking on Monday as they look at the runners and riders in the Republican Primary stakes.
Will they see the US facing Hobsons Choice. Will the choice be between electing an economically illiterate, religous fanatic, in the pocket of big business or big media as President, or watching them obstruct proper functioning of government for the following four years if they loose.
That might be described as disfunctional government.
Downgrade another couple of clicks?
21.00 BST
2000 youths taking on police in Manchester.
Birmingham looting
Other incidents too.
Dear Professor Cole
Now the talk is of Rubber Bullets.
The Army however is not being urged to deploy.
Dear Professor Cole
It is far more widespread that Tottenham.
The Telegraph provides a map showing incidents of looting and disorder in London.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/8689355/London-riots-all-incidents-mapped-in-London-and-around-the-UK.html
Further incidents have been reported in Birmingham, Leeds and Bristol.
Police are being authorised to deploy water cannon and report the use of armoured vehicles as a successful technique.
The general Chinese reaction seems to be fury.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/aug/03/china-calls-us-debt-manage
Zhou added that China would continue seeking to diversify its reserves. The challenge it faces is finding suitable alternatives.
A commentary carried by state news agency Xinhua attacked the "madcap farce of brinksmanship" and warned that the deal "failed to defuse Washington's debt bomb for good, only delaying an immediate detonation by making the fuse an inch longer".
.....
Some Chinese economists warned spending cuts could affect China's growth by slowing the US recovery. "US consumption will be definitely hurt a lot by the austerity deal and we can no longer count on the once-biggest foreign market in the future," said Ding Yifan, a researcher at the Development Research Centre under the State Council.
Dear Professor Cole
The important reaction comes from the East.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/2011-08/01/content_13020130.htm
Shockwaves will debilitate the markets in either case, and the global economy's fragile recovery will probably be reversed, and another recession could follow.
Because of these dire consequences, it is highly unlikely that Congress and the White House will fail to reach an agreement by Aug 2, unless hardliners in the Republican camp are crazy enough to trade the country's fate for President Barack Obama's scalp.
...
At present, the key to reducing the federal deficit is to increase employment. The irony is, that to do so, the federal government has to temporarily increase spending. But since the majority of the unemployed workers have low levels of education and many of them have been laid off by the construction sector, a sensible way of re-employing them would be to start public projects in infrastructure. Given the current deadlock over the debt ceiling, however, this is not likely to happen.
It seems the Chinese Communist party reads Professor Krugman's work and wisdom.
Dear vProfessor Cole
I expect none of your readers will be daft enough to Google the ravings of Anders Behring Breivik and to download his 2083 Manifesto for European Freedom.
They can expect their IP addresses to show up on someones watch list, and can expect to have all sorts of trojans and keyloggers invade their machines.
A side effect will of course be to generate false positives that allow people who share the authors lunatic views to hide among the simply curious.
Dear Professor Cole
You might enjoy Mr Fisk on "The Dirty Digger" as he was once described by Private Eye.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/media/press/robert-fisk-why-i-had-to-leave-the-times-2311569.html
Watching people blazing off ammunition at God knows what, on the TV news clips, gives me an indication of the level of fire disciplie and hence the level of discipline of the overall force.
Lots of noise. No effective fire.
Hence my comment
Dear Professor Cole
So the chaps from the rag tag Free Lybia Forces have captured an arms dump.
There are (officialy !!) no NATO boots on the ground to secure the dump.
I seem to recall that one of the things the US Army forgot to do in Iraq was to secure the arms dumps until it was too late.
So now every Tariq, Daoud, and Hakim will be off with his own load of RPG, AK, Milan, land mines, anti tank mines and whatever else people have peddled to the Ghadaffi regime over the past ten years.
Not a hope in hell of holding this alliance (if it ever was one) together.
Oh what fun! 🙁
Dear Professor Cole
I wonder if any Turkish warships are going to engage in Peaceful Passage along the coast towards Egypt.
Chaps
It is time to drop a few euros, pounds, dollars and similar in the collection tin,
If Professor Cole is going to become the focus of a campaign to roll back the subversion of your liberties, and the creeping onset of fascism, he is going to need some very expensive lawyers.
Dear Professor Cole
I looked up the definition of a Crime agaisnt humanity in response to your piece.
The characteristic is that the events are part of widespread or systematic practice.
Individual events may be war crimes but not crimes agaisnt humanity.
Given the IDF record over the last many years of widespread and systematic practice I would issue issue warrants.
(Pardon the unedited previous draft)
Dear Professor Cole
Who shall we hold accountable at the International Crimiunal Court for firing on unarmed demonstrators at the border fence today and the subsequent murders?
Some junior Lt as platoon commander or Netanyahu, Liebermann, Barak or one of the Generals?
Maybe there is a nice warm cell waiting for Benny Gantz beside Mladic.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13660311
Dear Professor Cole
I am glad to see that you have seen the terrifying aspect of the disturbances in Syria.
There do not seem to be any firewalls that can stop the contagion spreading.
Your excellent recent piece on the untenable situation in Israel with the powder keg issue of Jerusalem makes the advent of some sort of civil war in Syria, just too close for comfort. The excellent Stratfor recently commented that despite what Netanyahu says the 1948 Armistice borders are far more defensible than those of today.
There are too many regional actors with conflicting agendas in the region for us to safely allow the situation to deteriorate much further.
I have not yet seen any sensible description of the Levant region outcome in the trianglular battle between Turkey, Iran and Israel for hegemony in the region.
Sucking Turkey into the instability would be a worst case outcome.
Dear Professor Cole
The Pakistani Army will be justifiably nervous about a repeated raid to try and capture their store of Nuclear warheads.
This is probably one of the US long term goals in that part of the world.
Any unidentified helicopter will get dinged by a SAM form now on.
It will be interesting to see which Generals get fired and if they catch the Air Force officer who turned a blind eye.
Dear Professor Cole
they reject the notion of Western troops fighting alongside them. Good for them! Introducing ground infantry from Europe would be a political disaster and would lend ammunition to those who see the United Nations intervention as a form of neo-imperialism.
I do hope that somone isn't funding the introduction of 'Contractors' in place of regular infantry from the Old Colonial Powers.
This would get around the minor problem with the wording of UNSCR 1973.
However it is quite embarrassing that the strongest military alliance in the world should be having such a hard time defeating the army of a small north african country, despite their firepower.
Admiral Mullen's comment that they are moving to Stalemate makes them look very silly and will cause all the cheerleaders of a month ago to look for methods to escalate.
Meanwhile back in Syria which is the important theatre (not the misguided sideshow in Libya) demonstrators are being fired upon once again......
Dear Professor Cole
One wonders idly who will defend these enormous air bases once the rearguard leaves.
It is quite obvious that they are part of a contingency plan to bomb whoever is being inconvenient at the time.
Alternatively they might be part of a Reforger like plan to fly in lots of troops to rev up the prepositioned tanks and artillery.
Al Sadr and his guys sitting at the end of the runway with a few batteries of SAM does rather put a spoke in the wheel of that idea.
Dear Professor Cole
Has anyone done a recent study of the fate of the many millions of Iraqis who have been displaced?
One often wonders what has happened to the incomparable Riverbend and whether the refugees in Syria and Jordan are to be condemned to a similar fate to the Palestinian refugees.
Douma in Dmascus is where the Iraqi refugees first encounter UNWRA. Is the unrest there going to drag those 2 million of the disposessed into trouble? One rather hopes not.
I do rather like Steven Walt's calm rationality.
http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/04/03/top_five_reasons_we_keep_fighting_all_these_wars
Dear Professor Cole
With the publication of the Saudi US machinations against Syria, and Lebanon, and presumably Iran, the libyan intervention looks like a diversion to tie up forces that might maintain a ceasefire and no fly zone in these areas.
http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/features/why-did-website-linked-to-syria-regime-publish-u-s-saudi-plan-to-oust-assad-1.352809
If I were in Beruit or the Bekaa valley I would be checking my SAM batteries
One hopes that the Russians can supply suffient balancing power to the region in time, before the whole situation spins out of control.
Dear Professor Cole
Your old sparring partner Mr Hitchens doesn't seem to agree with you.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1370267/PETER-HITCHENS-Another-wrong-war----PM-treats-Parliament-like-neutered-chihuahua.html
Dear Professor Cole
The trouble I find with your position is that you set a precedent, despite you pooh pooing the idea. The precedent is set in the minds of the general public who expect their governments to do something and provide pulpit for congressional demagoguery.
If you substitute Syria for Libya you start to get the kind of thinking shown in today's New York Times.
Syria, however, is the more urgent crisis — one that could pose a thorny dilemma for the administration if Mr. Assad carries out a crackdown like that of his father and predecessor, Hafez al-Assad, who ordered a bombardment in 1982 that killed at least 10,000 people in the northern city of Hama. Having intervened in Libya to prevent a wholesale slaughter in Benghazi, some analysts asked, how could the administration not do the same in Syria?
Though no one is yet talking about a no-fly zone over Syria, Obama administration officials acknowledge the parallels to Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi. Some analysts predicted the administration will be cautious in pressing Mr. Assad, not because of any allegiance to him but out of a fear of what could follow him — a Sunni-led government potentially more radical and Islamist than his Alawite minority government.
I am indeed chewing gum while I walk by rembering that the first thing you do when you move an artillery battery in anywhere is plan how to get it back out again.
I echo the words of Guido Westerwelle that "It is easy to iamgine how to invade somewhere, far harder to figure out how to get out again".
From a practical point of view where do you draw the line at the amount of violence a government may legitimately use to maintain order among its citizens?
There is always the danger that some charismatic individual will declare himself Messias or Mahdi or Palin and will lead his/her followers on an orgy of pillage. If you look at the casualty figures at Omdurman you can see what the results of this can be. Hafez al Assad had no choice in Hama.
If you substitute Saudi Arabia for Libya where on earth do you end up?
The insitution of a 'no fly zone' as a pallitive where we are in fact lending some local heroes air superiority, has a poor reputation since it was used in Afghanistan.
The Mediterranean is a difficult area where getting sucked into fighting small wars should be avoided. Small wars tend to grow into larger wars that need large armies to finish them. Try asking yourself who has a large army in the Middle East and North Africa and see what sort of a mess you end up with when they start moving. The Arab League supported the No Fly zone becasue they have 1.5 million Egyptian citizens working in Libya.
One wonders why President Sarkozy isn't railing at President Boutefliqa in Algeria. Perhaps "Algerie Francaise" is too emotional a phrase to be heard during the presidentielle?
The only note of hope I see is that there might be a 90 day timelimit on the North African intervention. That gives us time to imagine the outcome in Libya with Ghadaffi still in power, and with AN Other in power.
If we are lucky then the shooting might have died down by then. If not and the Levant is in flames then we will have a good old fashioned problem on our hands.
I wonder if the Russians will manage to upgrade the Iranian air defences in time.
Dear Professor Cole
It is clear that Nicholas Sarkozy, the President of France has taken leave of his senses and is threatening all and sundry with war. The stress of being third in the opinion polls prior to next year´s elections has obviously got to him. He is quite obviously trying to position himself to the right of Marine LePen in stoking hostility to Arabs, Muslims and immigrants.
The UK Prime Minsiter is quite obviously a throwback to an earlier age, who has engaged Niall Fergusson the Imperialist historian to rewrite the history syllabus. He has quite obviously caught Blair disease and is following the lead of the crazed Sarkozy.
It is hard not to associate these events with the parlous state of the UK economy and the exisitence of two large oil companies BP and Total who would quite like to get their hands on the Libyan oil and gas fields, thus delivering the objective of the Iraq invasion, i.e. cheap oil and tax revenues.
The intervention of the purposeless NATO organisation in North Africa looks like a Trojan Horse for Africom the homeless US command based in Stuttgart.
The recent reports of unrest in Syria, being encouraged by US politicians fills me with dread.
If anyone says NATO in the same sentence as Syria in the next six months, I will assume that the whole episode has been cooked up in Tel Aviv with the support of the revived neocons.
I will not speculate on the relationship between Sarkozy and the Israelis.
From where I stand, the apropriate places for no fly zones are Gaza and Lebanon.
I am disapointed that very few people other than the perceptive Vladimir Putin and Guido Westerwelle the German Foreign Minister seem to have stood back and wondered what is going on, and reacted apropriately.
It remains to be seen whether the Turks can be sidlined as a rising power in the Mediterranean and Middle East, as seems to be then Israeli/ Sarkozy objective, and how the endgame is morphed into an all out attack on Iran.
Dear Professor Cole
Badrakhumar's insights are worth taking account of.
http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MC19Ak04.html
Egypt shipping Saudi weapons to the Libyan rebels.
The Egyptian Army moving west would be a tragic mistake. Its axis of advacne should be North East.
Quite simply the Germans have enough problems arising from the few thousand troops they have in Afghanistan.
They are demonstrating admirable caution before getting sucked into a situation with a clear objective or exit strategy.
It is far from clear what will happen if one of the French or British aircraft is shot down by antiaircraft fire or SAM.
Dear Professor Cole
What an excellent, well written, balanced and comprehensive piece.
The Japanese Nuclear Accident highlights the need for an alternative Energy source for Europe. There are 50,000 demonstrator who are thinking "We told you so" this morning as they listen to the Bundeskanzlerin.
The project to bring High Voltage DC to Germany from the Sahara has been analysed extensively by Deutsche Aerospace for the Desertec project, which should be able to supply up to 25% of Europe's power needs.
http://www.desertec.org/de?gclid=CJ2gk9HBy6cCFYm-zAodSDpXDA
Now all we need is a bit of political stability in North Africa.
One of your clear sighted analyses of the politcal and military risk associated with comitting to this course of action would be marvellously instuctive.
Dear Professor Cole
Why do you suspect there is not a peep out of Emirates?
Surely the place is full of underpaid Pakistani and Philipino labourers who haven´t been paid for months.
The blatant effrontery of the streetwalkers must surely get up the noses of the faithful.
Dear Professor Cole
Will we, the rabble who have been making helpful comments on Facebook and similar be safe to enter Egypt again?
Re Your I ask myself why piece
Haaretz reports the Google manager you reported missing is to be released.
The government is also expected to release a Google marketing manager who was detained during the anti-government demonstrations calling for the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak, who has ruled the country for 30 years.
Dear Professor Cole
It would seem that Al Ahram has changed sides
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/egypt/8309469/Egypt-crisis-Hosni-Mubarak-loses-control-of-state-media.html
Looks like the beginning of the end then
Dear Professor Cole
David Mack in Foreign Policy is equally pessimistic. We need to understand how Egypt would cope with economic collapse.
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/02/03/hold_the_applause
David Mack is a Middle East Institute scholar, a former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state for Near East affairs, and a former U.S. ambassador to the United Arab Emirates.
Dear Professor Cole
The answer to a lot of your questions is the well known procrastination technique.
This gives the police time to track down the leadership of the second layer of the opposition and lock them up.
Facebook profiles, for example, can be a boon for government intelligence collectors, who can use updates and photos to pinpoint movement locations and activities and identify connections among various individuals, some of whom may be suspect for various activities. (Visible Technologies, a software firm that specializes in monitoring social media has received funding from In-Q-Tel, the CIA’s venture capital firm, and many Western intelligence services have start-up budgets to develop Internet technologies that will enable even deeper mining of Internet-user data.)
Read more: Social Media as a Tool for Protest | STRATFOR
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110202-social-media-tool-protest?utm_source=SWeekly&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=110203&utm_content=readmore&elq=0a5120c7b38a4419b0e34a506ec1d693
Cloud computing techniques offer the opportunity for any intel agency to use virtually unlimited processing power to track and map the disaffected.
I suspect that your (and the Muslim Brotherhood's) suspicions that the negotiations between Suleiman and the MB are a ruse are correct.
Robin Niblett's suggestion that we won't know for a couple of years if there is a deeper and better led underground movement waiting to come out is probably correct. It would be a typical result of the frustrated protests, to generate a radicalised and politicised broad based opposition.
http://chathamhouse.org.uk/media/comment/us_policy_and_the_egypt_crisis/-/1221/
Dear Professor Cole
Prime Minister Nazif and his colleagues from University of Cairo who held minsterial positions will be a loss. I have met some of them and formed a favourable view of them.
As technocrats their knowledge and competence was creating some quite interesting proejcts , and integrating Egypt with Europe particularly in the telecommunications system.
How an air force offcier will cope with some of the appalling structural and infrastructure problems that will require very subtantial investment over a long term will be interesting to see.
The Urban Planning problems in Cairo alone are staggering. As you know, the statue of Rameses was moved from Rameses square , outside the railway station, to a location outside the city becasue the air pollution was eating away the stsue.
A walk around the district near Ibn Tullun Mosque gives you a picture of what life is like for the Urban poor.
Who is publishing work on these subjects? Robin Nibelett from Chatham House in his interview from Davos says nothing can change for at least five years.
http://chathamhouse.org.uk/research/middle_east/current_projects/0111protests/
Once the euphoria dies down, what happens next?
Dear Professor Cole
Conspicuously lacking from your narratives is of course the Old Colonial Power who do like to pull strings.
Is Quai d´'Orsay losing its touch?
Dear Professor Cole
Does the use of the same words as the King of Saudi Arabia used mean that Mubarak thinks it is the Iranians?
Or is this just the start of the bloody and violent battle to succeed Vache qui Rit?
Dear Professor Cole
Happy New Year.
Your list is good but should be read in conjunction with John Mearsheimer's excellent Essay: "Imperial by Design"
http://nationalinterest.org/article/imperial-by-design-4576?page=1
He finishes with a reference to a worry about civilan control of the Military. As the CIA seems to have decided to run a private war inside Pakistan this is troubling with a danger of the commanding general in Afghanistan wanting to follow suit.
Perhaps most importantly, moving toward a strategy of offshore balancing would help us tame our fearsome national-security state, which has grown alarmingly powerful since 9/11. Core civil liberties are now under threat on the home front and the United States routinely engages in unlawful behavior abroad. Civilian control of the military is becoming increasingly problematic as well. These worrisome trends should not surprise us; they are precisely what one expects when a country engages in a broadly defined and endless global war against terror and more generally commits itself to worldwide hegemony. Never-ending militarization invariably leads to militarism and the demise of cherished liberal values. It is time for the United States to show greater restraint and deal with the threats it faces in smarter and more discerning ways. That means putting an end to America’s pursuit of global dominance and going back to the time-honored strategy of offshore balancing.
Dear Professor Cole
Akiva Eldar in Haaretz seems to be on the button.
http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/u-s-pull-out-of-freeze-talks-show-obama-s-strength-against-netanyahu-1.329404
The significance of the U.S. decision to stop pushing for a moratorium, which was reported on Tuesday, is that Obama is refusing to give Netanyahu a seal of approval to build in Jerusalem. He also isn't giving out any Christmas presents if Israel is so kind as to comply with the road map and respect international law. The president also understands that after three months of a second settlement freeze, he would have found himself without any kind of agreement and facing repeated Arab demands to extend the freeze again, necessitating another exhausting bargaining session with Netanyahu.
The U.S. announcement has been in the offing for a number of days, but was held off until the hysteria over the Carmel fire died down. The Americans acceded to the entreaties of the Palestinians and their friends in the Arab states, who demanded that Obama finally announce who the good guys are and who the bad guys are.
Dear Professor Cole
The Israelis have elected to comit suicide.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/dec/08/us-middle-east-peace-talks
Do you think they are being deliberately "agent provocateur" and using their Agent in Place Dennis Ross to provoke a shooting war in collusion with US Generals who actually want to win something?
Remember the French Generals who were defeated at Dien Bien Phu and went on to the killing zones of Algeria. plus ca change...
Written with deepest cynicism.
Dear Professor Cole
Anatole Lieven, the Professor of War Studies at Kings College London, agrees with my point about the relations between the rulers and the ruled.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-11918573
This news endorses the arguments of neo-conservatives in the US, who always argued that the Arab monarchies themselves privately favoured attacking Iran.
Not much emerged that had not already been leaked On the other hand, it also emphasises the deep gulf between these monarchies and their own peoples, who - according to opinion polls - strongly oppose an attack on Iran, and the extremely two-faced approach of these states to their relationship with the US and Israel, and indeed to the world in general.
Here, Wikileaks may be of real importance: partly by increasing Iranian hostility to the Gulf States - though the Iranians were already aware of the Gulf princes' fear of them - but even more importantly by increasing Arab popular contempt for the Gulf monarchies.
.........
Finally, there is the wider question as to whether such leaks are a good or bad thing. After careful thought and with certain reservations, I'd have to say that on balance they are good.
Far too much misinformation and outright lying has surrounded the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Overall, we in the West now live in an atmosphere of security hysteria and obsessive secrecy that would have filled our ancestors with horror.
If the threat of more Wikileaks releases makes this less likely in future, so much the better.
As to the effects on the tender sensibilities of Silvio Berlusconi, Vladimir Putin and Hamid Karzai of private US official opinions of them - well, how very tragic. The more these people know of how the outside world regards them the better for their countries. From this point of view, Wikileaks might almost be seen as rather a good way for a US administration to pass on candid messages that it could not possibly deliver officially.
Professor Cole
On the other hand, I don’t see the leaks as the end of the world. Most of the authors of the cables have been rotated to another embassy by now, and leaders come and go. There is no evidence of anyone being killed because of the leaks, though one German spy for the US has been summarily fired.
The corrosive effect of the Wikileaks will not be immediately apparent.
However the breakdown of trust in the rulers by the ruled will take effect though a greater degree of cynicism. The German spy you refer to was in fact the Chef de Cabinet of the German Foreign Minister. Unlike Wili Brandt, who had nurtured one of Markus Wolf's people in his office, Mr Westerwelle has not resigned. (yet)
The UK Foreign Minsiter and Defence Minister have revealed themselves to be Fellow Travellers of the US, in their fawning competiton tonoutdo each other in pledging allegiance to the US and order more military hardware from them.
Elias Murr, the Lebanese Defense Minister, has not resigned (or fled which would be more sensible) from the Lebanese government for colluding with the enemy, the Outlaw State of Israel, to advise them as to how to invade his country.
Much as the Crowned Heads of Europe united against Revolutionary France, the Autocracies of the Middle East are uniting with the abusers of the Palestinians against the Iranians. Does the combination of victory in Iraq, Wikileaks and the equivalents of the Cannonade at Valmy where the sans culottes broke the vaunted Austrians, in Southern Lebanon in 2006 and Gaza in 2008 not give strength to the morality rhetoric propounded by Ayatollah Khoimeni?
Just as French Revolutionary ideas motivated Wolfe Tone and the United Irishmen in 1798, will not the success of the Iranian Revolution in repelling the Evil Empire for thirty years, cause the lid to come off the pressure cooker in the Arab States?
Does the revelation that the Yemeni President has given a free hand to US forces to attack his people, destroy any remaining legitimacy that he might have had?
Much as the Revolutions of 1848 died down quite quickly the immediate effect of the wikileaks will blow over soon.
However just as infection with syphilis takes years to wreak its effect, the wikileaks will be one of number of factors to destabilise the Middle East and cause the US European allies to abandon them to their own mess.
At risk of incurring your professorial wrath for a C- student's trick, I quote from the Wikpedia entry on 1848, and leave it to your readers to find their way to the Commune in Paris, and VI Lenin's train arriving at Finland Station in St Peterburg in 1917 and the many Heroes of the Soviet Union who died in final battle for Berlin in 1945.
Origins
These revolutions arose from such a wide variety of causes that it is difficult to view them as resulting from a coherent movement or social phenomenon. Numerous changes had been taking place in European society throughout the first half of the 19th century. Both liberal reformers and radical politicians were reshaping national governments. Technological change was revolutionizing the life of the working classes. A popular press extended political awareness, and new values and ideas such as popular liberalism, nationalism and socialism began to spring up. A series of economic downturns and crop failures, particularly those in the year 1846, produced starvation among peasants and the working urban poor.
Galician slaughter (polish "Rzeź galicyjska") by Jan Lewicki (1795-1871), (was a massacre of Polish nobles by Polish peasants in Galicia between early 1846 and late 1848.)Large swathes of the nobility were discontented with royal absolutism or near-absolutism. In 1846 there had been an uprising of Polish nobility in Austrian Galicia, which was only countered when peasants, in turn, rose up against the nobles.[6] Additionally, an uprising by democratic forces against Prussia occurred in Greater Poland.
Next the middle classes began to agitate. Working class objectives tended to fall in line with those of the middle class. Although Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels had written at the request of the Communist League in London (an organization consisting principally of German workers) The Communist Manifesto (published in German in London on February 21, 1848), once they began agitating in Germany following the March insurrection in Berlin, their demands were considerably reduced. They issued their "Demands of the Communist Party in Germany"[7] from Paris in March; the pamphlet only urged unification of Germany, universal suffrage, abolition of feudal duties, and similar middle class goals.
Results
The Italian and German movements did provide an important impetus. Italy was unified in 1861, while Germany in 1871 was unified under Bismarck after Germany's 1870 war with France. Some disaffected German bourgeois liberals (the Forty-Eighters, many atheists and freethinkers) migrated to the United States after 1848, taking their money, intellectual talents, and skills out of Germany.
The revolutions did inspire lasting reform in Denmark as well as the Netherlands. Denmark was governed by a system of absolute monarchy since the seventeenth century. King Christian VIII, a moderate reformer but still an absolutist, died in January 1848 during a period of rising opposition from farmers and liberals. The new king, Frederick VII, met the liberals demands and installed a new Cabinet that included prominent leaders of the National Liberal Party. He accepted a new constitution — see the Constitution of Denmark — agreeing to share power with a bicameral parliament called the Rigsdag.[15] The liberal constitution did not extend to Schleswig, leaving the Schleswig-Holstein Question unanswered.,
King William II of the Netherlands, afraid of the revolutions spreading into the Netherlands, ordered Johan Rudolf Thorbecke to revise the constitution. Thorbecke's revision resulted in the king losing most of his powers in favor of the parliament, effectively turning the Netherlands into a Constitutional Monarchy.
1848 was a watershed year for Europe, and many of the changes of the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries have origins in this revolutionary period.
It seems we are condemned to live in Interesting Times on a diet of Tom and Jerry's (sic) ice cream.
Dear Professor Cole
The marvellous Fisk has the same alergic reaction as me to the contents of the cables.
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/fisk/robert-fisk-now-we-know-america-really-doesnt-care-about-injustice-in-the-middle-east-2146971.html
Dear Professor Cole
I suspect you may have missed the point of the whole brouha.
What you are actually seeing is an instance of cyberwar, in this case instead of shutting down the world's financial trading system, or turning off the electrcitiy control systems for a few cities, they have opened up world access to a database of candid views on allies and enemies of the declining superpower.
It destroys quite a bit of US soft power, as reading through many of the examples casues one to come away confirmed in the view that "USA is Baaad!!!" and confirms much of the Left Wing comment for many years that it is a poodle for the Outlaw State of Israel.
Wikileaks is a "Non State Actor" equivalent to the 19th century Anarchists, and the potential to cause damage bears out much of the analysis in the British Government's recent National Security Strategy.
http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/events/view/-/id/1758/
Just as a few individuals who hijacked four aircraft in 2001 caused major upheaval in the world and brought about two wars in retalliation and a financial catastrophe arising from the need to pay for them, this destabilisation of the messaging systems of the US government is likely to lead to accidents.
The loose cannon aspect of the 19th century anarchists eventually led to an Archduke's driver taking a wrong turn in Sarajevo, bringing his passengers into the field of fire of a boy with a handgun.
Sadly I suspect we are seeing the lighting of a few fuses towards the powderkegs in the Middle East and South West Asia.
Still, looking on the bright side, the revelation that Mr Lieberman is The Kremlin's Agent in Place or Agent of Influence might finally lead to his arrest and incarceration
Dear Professors Cole and Jahanpour
As my old Physics teacher taught me "To every action there is an equal and opposite reaction"
Mr Putin understands the concept of balance of power and needs Lebanon as a site for his radar to defend his future naval base at Tartus.
http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/russia-to-gift-lebanon-with-arms-military-supplies-to-bolster-army-1.325090
No mention of the required SAM batteries.
Dear Professor Cole
Thank you for your important and valuable analysis. Watching the situation in Jerusalem is like watching a slow fuse burn down towards a powder keg.
You echo Hew Strachan in his piece in the Telegraph a few weeks ago.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/defence/8008884/Defence-Review-we-are-as-complacent-about-war-as-the-Edwardians.html
However, scenarios for world wars are not hard to find. Israel’s tensions with its neighbours are such that the latest peace initiative is provoking more scepticism than hope. Conflict in the Middle East is likely to involve Iran, a state which refuses to be coerced by Washington. Iran in turn could unite a war in the Middle East with the war in Afghanistan. Once the fuse has been lit, it runs eastwards through Pakistan to India and China, south to Iraq, and north to the “stans”.
This is a messier way of understanding the onset of major war than we have become used to. Shaped by the final stages of the Second World War, our idea of major war is a global war waged by superpowers, fighting in the name of irreconcilable ideologies, and ready to fight to the finish. We throw in the use of nuclear weapons for good measure. That may have been how the Second World War ended, but it is not how it began. Major wars can begin as an aggregation of lesser wars. Even the most power-crazed tyrant prefers to fight in bite-sized chunks in successive smaller wars.
Despite being in the fourth or fifth century since the Enlightenment there are still bands of of fundamentalists who are as inflexible on the interpretation of ancient texts as the Inquisition was at the time of Galileo. The Torah has no standing in International Law.
Of particular worry, regarding the Judaisation of Jerusalem, are the people of questionable sanity who propose to rebuild the Jewish Temple on the site of the Haram al Sharif. This would provoke the widest outbreak of shooting seen for fifty years as hundreds of millions of offended Muslims react to the sacrilege. The last gasp of the Israeli state as it is overrun would be to launch nuclear weapons at its neighbours leaving much of the Middle East a contaminated wasteland. (and killing me if I am in Cairo, Damascus, Beirut, Amman, Riyadh or Isfahan or Dubai). http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2371847/posts
One of the underlying causes of the Thirty Years War was the obsolescence of the Treaty of Augsburg. The Israeli non compliance with the terms of the Hague and Geneva Conventions and with a stream of UNSCR indicates we are seeing a similar breakdown.
The breakdown of the arrangements of the Treaty of Vienna led to the outbreak of shooting now known as the First World War, ably and readably described by Professor Strachan. http://www.history.ox.ac.uk/staff/postholder/strachan_hfa.htm
So it is now time to curb and disarm the Israelis and remove their offensive weapons and capability before they start a conflagration that gets a lot of us killed and destroys a great deal of the Eastern Mediterranean and the Persian Gulf, that spreads through the Balkans to the Muslim minorites in Western Europe.
If outside military intervention is required to remove the squatters from Palestinian territory then so be it.
Faheem
Thanks for the links.
I was really taken with Stephen Walt's choice of the EU as his first item.
The Mediterranean is a Euro Arab Lake.
Dear Professor Cole
The news this morning of the US incentives to the Israelis to buy a few more days of their indulgence illustates the decline of the US.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-11751713
BBC radio mentions that the offer includes immunity from war crimes charges arising from their assault on Gaza and their recent piracy and murder on the high seas and a block on any investigation of their nuclear facilities.
I feel a sense of deep anger that Outlaw State to whom International Law no longer applies has managed to, yet again, subvert the US government.
The US has paid the blackmailer and will now have to keep paying.
The US is no longer a credible intermediary for negotiations.
The Outlaw State is as dangerous in the Middle East as Serbia was in the Balkans a hundred years ago.
Dear Professor Cole
One suspects that Pakistani opinion may be even less favourable than before.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-11711007
Looks like the fighter sale is now a formality.
Dear Professor Cole
Here are the competitors for the US aircraft
http://www.defence-update.net/wordpress/20100810_mmrca_shortlist_typhoon_rafale.html
It seems the Euopean Aircraft are being seen as technically superior.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/defence/8114951/UK-closes-in-on-11bn-fighter-deal.html
Dear Professor Cole
Obama had no intention of bringing Kashmir up publicly in Delhi (he isn’t that clueless). As for visiting Islamabad, he’ll do that next year on his way to Kabul.
Are you saying he is clueless otherwise?
Dear Professor Cole
The trouble with all these rumours is that they get picked up by other press and repeated.
Here is Heffer in the Telegraph repeating everything you have complained of.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/simonheffer/8113741/Barack-Obama-is-doomed-enter-Mrs-Clinton.html
anger was further stoked by the President’s decision to leave yesterday on a long trip to India and the Far East. Although it is being sold here as some sort of trade mission – though he is likely to find that whatever America might want to sell in that region, the locals can make it just as well and at a small fraction of the cost – his departure is viewed as an escape from the line of fire.
He is also being heavily criticised for going to a country with a recent history of terrorist outrages, necessitating a security operation that is adding a further large chunk to his country’s national debt. As well as his taking 500 staff, 13 aircraft and four helicopters have already flown in a fleet of cars and communications equipment, and no fewer than 34 US warships are said to be hovering off the coast. Some of his critics here were already drawing comparisons with the court of Louis XVI just before the French Revolution, and this hasn’t helped.
His Republican opponents are on the march against him. But so are elements within his own party. America’s latest unemployment figures were confirmed yesterday still to be 9.5 per cent, large parts of whole cities are derelict, and average incomes are tumbling. A president elected to give hope to precisely these people has not only failed, but seems to become ever more apart from them. The Democrats are worried.
Dear Professor Cole
You might find this antidote to the militarist articles of use.
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/10/22/armchair_warriors?page=0,0&obref=obinsite
The first analysis of Obama's options after the elections that suggested that attacking Iran was the thing to do appeared in one of Stratfor's analyses about a month ago.
Since then it has been supported by the likes of the delightful Caroline Glick in Jerusalem Post which may suggest where the idea originated or found traction.
This lazy thinking by David Broder overlooks the other op ed piece in NYTimes recently pointing out that the US infrastucture like the UK's is a hundred years old and starting to fall apart.
If you want to stimulate the US economy you can do the same as Adolf Hitler and build infrastructure. Admittedly his autobahns were designed to allow a much larger repeat of Ludendorf's achievement at Massurian lakes where he switched armies between fronts on interior lines on railways thus allowing him to defeat a numerically superior force piecemeal.
Keynes, as I remember it, approved.
Of course if Mr Murdoch manages to take over all the world's communications media we may hear the endless drumbeat of war for quite some time. Shades of the Daily Mail campaign for more Dreadnoughts before world war one.
Dear Professor Cole
Thank you for your recent educational and inspiring pieces on the imminent elections in the greater and lesser states of Lunacy.
As I read a very catholic variety of sources I had a flash of insight by connecting what you have written, with some of the other sources I am reading, in particular Culture Shock by Kevin Sinclair.
http://www.amazon.com/Culture-Shock-Survival-Customs-Etiquette/dp/1558680608
As I read the desription of the haranguing of dissidents on Execution Hill, watched from Hong Kong, followed by their execution by firing squad I suddenly recognised the Tea Party (Mad Hatter) phenomenon as an old friend.
I wonder if it may help your readers with a wider understanding of what we are seeing by reminding them of the Great Proletarian Cultual Revolution inspired by the great Mao Zhe Dong and the Gang of Four.
The Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution or simply the Cultural Revolution was a violent mass movement in the People’s Republic of China that started in 1966 and officially ended with Mao Zedong's death in 1976. It resulted in social, political, and economic upheaval; widespread persecution; and the destruction of antiques, historical sites, and culture.
It was launched by Mao Zedong, the chairman of the Communist Party of China, on May 16, 1966. He alleged that liberal bourgeois elements were permeating the party and society at large and that they wanted to restore capitalism. Mao insisted, in accordance with his theory of permanent revolution, that these elements should be removed through revolutionary violent class struggle by mobilizing China's youth who, responding to his appeal, then formed Red Guard groups around the whole country.
The movement subsequently spread into the military, urban workers, and the party leadership itself. It even took on extreme and surrealistic forms such as the (unsuccessful) attempt to change the meaning of the red traffic light to "go".[1] Although Mao himself officially declared the Cultural Revolution to have ended in 1969, its active phase lasted until the death of Lin Biao in a plane crash in 1971. The power struggles and political instability between 1969 and the arrest of the Gang of Four in 1976 are now also widely regarded as part of the Revolution.
After Mao's death in 1976, forces within the party that opposed the Cultural Revolution, led by Deng Xiaoping, gained prominence, and most of the political, economic, and educational reforms associated with the Cultural Revolution were abandoned by 1978. The Cultural Revolution has been treated officially as a negative phenomenon ever since. The people involved in instituting the policies of the Cultural Revolution were persecuted. In its official historical judgment of the Cultural Revolution in 1981, the Party assigned chief responsibility to Mao Zedong, but also laid significant blame on Lin Biao and the Gang of Four for causing its worst excesses.
We well remember the Red Guards and the Little Red Book and their devastating effecton the Chinese economy.
Wikipedia mentions
Legacy
The effects of the Cultural Revolution directly or indirectly touched essentially all of China's population. During the Cultural Revolution, much economic activity was halted, with "revolution", regardless of interpretation, being the primary objective of the country. The start of the Cultural Revolution brought huge numbers of Red Guards to Beijing, with all expenses paid by the government, and the railway system was in turmoil. Countless ancient buildings, artifacts, antiques, books, and paintings were destroyed by Red Guards. By December 1967, 350 million copies of Mao's Quotations had been printed.[21]
Elsewhere, the 10 years of the Cultural Revolution also brought the education system to a virtual halt. The university entrance exams were cancelled during this period, not to be restored until 1979 under Deng Xiaoping. Many intellectuals were sent to rural labour camps, and many of those who survived left China shortly after the revolution ended.[citation needed] Many survivors and observers[who?] suggest that almost anyone with skills over that of the average person was made the target of political "struggle" in some way. According to most Western observers as well as followers of Deng Xiaoping, this led to almost an entire generation of inadequately educated individuals. However, this varies depending on the region, and the measurement of literacy did not resurface until the 1980s.[22] Some counties in the Zhanjiang district, for example, had illiteracy rates as high as 41% some 20 years after the revolution. The leaders denied any illiteracy problems from the start. This effect was amplified by the elimination of qualified teachers—many of the districts were forced to rely upon chosen students to re-educate the next generation.[22]
Mao Zedong Thought had become the central operative guide to all things in China. The authority of the Red Guards surpassed that of the army, local police authorities, and the law in general. China's traditional arts and ideas were ignored, with praise for Mao being practiced in their place. People were encouraged to criticize cultural institutions and to question their parents and teachers, which had been strictly forbidden in Confucian culture. This was emphasized even more during the Anti-Lin Biao, Anti-Confucius Campaign. Slogans such as "Parents may love me, but not as much as Chairman Mao" were common.
The Cultural Revolution also brought to the forefront numerous internal power struggles within the Communist party, many of which had little to do with the larger battles between Party leaders, but resulted instead from local factionalism and petty rivalries that were usually unrelated to the "revolution" itself. Because of the chaotic political environment, local governments lacked organization and stability, if they existed at all. Members of different factions often fought on the streets, and political assassination, particularly in rural-oriented provinces, was common. The masses spontaneously involved themselves in factions, and took part in open warfare against other factions. The ideology that drove these factions was vague and sometimes nonexistent, with the struggle for local authority being the only motivation for mass involvement.
The symptoms are unmistakeable: The rejection of science in favour of mindless slogans. The rejection of the knowledge and experience of the highly educated and trained in favour of the voodoo economics and wacky social ideas put forward by floozies.
Your only consolation is perhaps that it is not quite as extreme as Pol Pot's experiment in Cambodia.
We Europeans with our far more stable and developed societies and a wealth of history to point out to us the things that should be avoided can probably help by offering political asylum to the persecuted intelectuals (including tenured history professors) and bourgeois reactionaries, provided they can get over the borders without being spotted by the local cadres.
So when the Thought Police knock on the door to urge you to "Vote Bimbo", don't panic. Start preparing your Escape Kit.
Dear Professor Cole
I am surprised that noone has pointed out the Reverend Dodgson's investigation and description of the Tea Party.
It is more generally known as the Mad Hatters Tea Party.
http://www.ci.springfield.or.us/museum/Mad%20Hatter%20Tea%20Party.jpg
What a curious species Americans seem to be.
Dear Professor Cole
I wonder if this piece in Jerusalem Post and Mr Murdcoh's recent eulogy of Margaret Thatcher has anything to do with his attempt to buy the remainder of Sky that he doesn't already own.
http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Op-EdContributors/Article.aspx?id=191899
The picture Mr Murdoch paints of beleaguered Jews is not the same one I recognise from Professor Schlaim's work and yours.
I agree with the people who are calling on the Business Minister in the UK to refer Mr Murdoch's plans to the Monopolies Commission.
Dear Professr Cole
Backing up Astras point about political tensions in the CDU.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/weak-merkel-stokes-xenophobia-as-she-fights-for-political-survival-2109433.html
The point you make about the shortfall in skilled labout that makes immigration a necessity is a Europe wide problem.
The demographics of the situation make the need for a modus vivendi with our minorities a necessity.
The interesting thing will be to watch the German election results in a couple of years time.
Could the Netanyahu Government Fall over New Settlements?
One of the interesting things to be announced is the decline of the Briths Army to five brigades by 2020.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1321201/Defence-cuts-latest-Two-carriers-jet-fighters-iconic-Harrier-axed.html
Five brigades is a division and a half.
They will have to arm traffic wardens to do ceremonial duties at the Royal Palaces.
Dear Professor Cole
Among all the smoke, mirrors, heat and dust of the British Defence review that apparently leaves the UK with air superiorty over the Taleban, (though the jets can't be deployed in Aghansatan becasue it is too dustry) and will build aircraft carriers that might not have aircraft, Professor Hew Strachan writes an insightful article.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/defence/8008884/Defence-Review-we-are-as-complacent-about-war-as-the-Edwardians.html
It is interesting to note his reference to the possibility of war in the Middle East.
If the worst case Middle Eastern scenario were played out, what would Britain’s position be? The answer would probably depend on the United States. Britain is America’s junior partner, as the Prime Minister reminded us, and the United States would almost certainly be involved in such a war. And that is not the only possible major war exercising the Pentagon. The US’s fixation with the rise of China is almost obsessive, and is frequently couched in terms which carry pre-1914 resonances. Can one power rise and the other decline without each fighting the other as they pass?
It is hard to imagine going to war against friends and trading partners in support of an outlaw state that ignores international law and UNSC Resolutions and engages in piracy and murder on the high seas.
The sooner the Netanyahu government falls and hard truths are stated to the squatters in East Jerusalem and the Palestinian Territories the better.
Phud
I do not advocate either the use or further exisitence of such weapons.
However if a threat against a European city were carried out then retaliation should be automatic, inevitable and proportional.
Removal of the delivery platform, whoever it is supplied by, is part of the process of disarmament and stabilisation of the region.
Dear Professor Cole
"If NATO would agree to reassign the troops now beginning to withdraw from Afghanistan to Palestine, and would face down any Israeli intransigence, now that would be a plan."
NATO command of such troops would be a problem. A US general commanding would be open to interference from the Tea Partiers and congressmen who have been bought by AIPAC.
EU command or UN command perhaps but probably not NATO
The mission statement would be a problem as would the problem of what to do with the the squatters who fight back.
Throwing them into temporary cages would be something of a PR disaster, particularly if it were German tropops just returned from Afghanistan running the cages.
A first step might be to stop selling offensive weapons to the Israelis. Selling them submaries is making a rod for our own backs, as they would attack the supply ships for a landing force and could theoretically threaten London or Paris or Barcelona with a nuclear tipped cruise missile.
The repsonse to a real attack would be to turn Tel Aviv into a glass lined crater.
Continuing to sell them submarines that we would later be obliged to sink is folly.
Dear Professor Cole
"Malik said the government had put across a strong message that Pakistan was a self-respecting nation and knows how to defend its sovereignty. “No country can tolerate breach of its sovereignty,” he added."
Do you think he has noticed people firing missiles from drones at his citizens or the 3000 man marauders crossing the border mentioned in Woodward's book?
Dear Professor Cole
And if I were the US Department of the Treasury I wouldn’t expect much Iraqi help with those sanctions on Iranian banks.
I must confess that I am now a little bewildered.
One of the big problems in the Middle East is how to reconstruct Iraq, ( and Syria and Iran) given that they all suffer from major defects in their infrastucture.
Turkey is the natural conduit for delivery of this effort into the area with container traffic from the recently upgraded port of Tartous being a secondary route.
It is quite obvious that these countries all will become a common trading bloc with Syria already haveing a free trade area with Turkey.
I fail to see how one can apply sactions (or an arms embargo) against any part of the area sucessfully.
It must be time for one of your longer and more erudite essays on the scenarios for development of the area between the Caspian, and the Straits of Hormuz.
The joker in the pack, as always, will be the Outlaw State which engages in Piracy and Murder on the High Seas and wanton destruction of infrastucture either by high explosives or by destabilising the software of European Manufacturing Companies.
The Norwegians have got the right idea by denying assistance to a program to equip the priates with further offensive weapons.
http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/israel-bound-submarines-banned-from-testing-in-norway-s-waters-1.316518
Dear Professor Cole
One of Bill Clinton's best decisions was to bomb Belgrade and deploy a few divisions in response to the Serbian attempts at Ethnic Cleansing of Kosovo in 1999.
http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/lieberman-presents-plans-for-population-exchange-at-un-1.316197
Following Clinton's precedent, it must be time for someone to tell Mr Lieberman that anyone attempting to implement his "to Hell or to Connaght" scheme will provoke the bombing of Tel Aviv, Haifa, Ashdod, Eilat and Atlit, by EU air power, followed by deployment of EU forces.
Enter Baroness Ashton stage left.
Is anyone using Miloshevich old cell at the Hague these days?
Dear Professor Cole
From this morning's Haaretz.
http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/dozens-of-arab-families-may-be-evicted-from-east-jerusalem-neighborhood-under-court-ruling-1.316055
One does start to sympathis with the viewsof the Emperor Hadrian.
Dear Professor Cole
Perhaps the most worrying part of the slight of hand associated with the present negotiations is the continuing efforts to cut off East Jerusalem and turn the whole city into one controlled by the Orthodox.
Once this happens, the lunatics with an agenda to build a third Jewish Temple on the site of Haram al Sharif will push on with their activities
http://www.templemountfaithful.org/
I would argue that any attempt to do so would provoke a general outbreak of shooting in the Middle East, with a spillover onto the European mainland.
It looks as if it is getting to be time for the EU to think in terms of deploying a force West of the Jordan to prevent any further encroachment on Palestinian Territory.
If their mission statement includes removing the squatters form the "Settlements" then so be it.
The first task, following Rupert Smith's methodology, is to decide what size of task it might be. It looks to be bigger than a Division size mission.
Dear Professor Cole
I read Informed Comment because it used to be a "Paris Hilton Free" Zone.
Alas .......
Perhaps, following Murdoch's example, you will now start publishing photos of young ladies on Page 3?
Dear Professor Cole
A map of the flooded areas might help, as well as a running count of the displaced.
Then when it all goes up in flames we will know where.
Dear Professor Cole
The supply of a good air defence system to Lebanon will be an interesting conundrum.
UNSCR 1701 should prevent the Isreali Air Force from generating Sonic booms by going supersonic over Beirut.
An Early Warning System covering the aproaches to Tyre, Beirut and the Bekaa valley might usefully be integrated with the Syrian one to cover the aproaches to Damascus and Tartus.
Dear Professor Cole
I have read Ms Glick´s pieces in the Jerusalem Post for the past two or three years ever since Helena Cobban highlighted her rather irrational views in a quite fascinating castigation. Part of Ms Glick´s problem may be related to a dual personality as a concurrent US citizen and a Zionist editor and a conflation of both.
Helena´s comments on Caroline´s suggestion (from a non NATO member) that Turkey be thrown out of NATO is relevant, and has been a continuing theme over the last few years.
http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2008/08/turkeys_abandonment_of_the_wes.html
Comment from... Helena, at August 15, 2008 10:33 AM:
Glick's rant is particularly amusing and ill-conceived because she fails to make any mention of the fact that Erdogan has been one of the international leaders who have rushed to Georgia to express support for Saak in the past few days...
Ah, but that doesn't fit into her tightly Manichean, dyadical, "you're either with us or against us" frame. Her description of life in Turkey under Erdogan is also unrecognizable. (In fact, life in Israel is considerably more theocratic than life in Turkey under the AKP.)
Why does the JP publish this nonsense?
At times the views expressed are bordering on the "rational but extreme" and at other times she seems to go off the rails entirely.
I did wonder if this might be caused by her forgetting to take her tablets, if any have been prescribed, but lately I have wondered if it might be linked to a more lunar cycle.
Whatever the reason, I suspect that Jerusalem Post might usefully wonder if its deputy editor is enhancing its credibility by publishing these unusual views.
But then, they publish Krauthammer too, so perhaps they do.
Professor Paul Stevens writings are consistent in his analysis of the reasons for a projected spike in oil prices.
His work can be found here
http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/about/directory/view/-/id/137/
and this publication is a recommended read.
http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/652/
Dear Professor Cole
One of the items commented on in the Wikileaks papers is that the opposition in Afghanistan have been using MANPADS against Nato aircraft. It was the introduction of these weapons that finally broke the Russians.
As a great fuss has been made of delivery of more helicopters to Afghanistan by MoD in UK, to avoid needless casualties from road travel, the extent of the MANPADS deployment needs to be explained. Dinging a Chinook loses you 30 troops at a time.
If it is substantial then it is time to go time. (Pakistan makes their own indigenous Stinger However, local indigenous version of Stinger missiles fielded by the Pakistani Army was used in the Kargil War and shot down an Indian Air Force Mi-8 Helicopter[citation needed] and a MiG-21 aircraft[citation needed], as well as damaging a Canberra reconnaissance aircraft[citation needed]. Pakistan has begun phasing out its inventory of the original American made models completely. The Pakistan indigenous Stinger missile is said to contain an improved IR seeker to better follow its intended target.)
Paul Stevens predicts an oil price spike to $200 per barrel by 2013 in this report.
http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/891/
It was recently reported in Sunday Times in the UK that the Saudis would look the other way and stand down their radar to facilitate an overflight.
Dear Professor Cole
It seems the sane and sensible people are speaking up.
The highest approval rating of the comments on Professor Krugman's piece (from a Naval Commander) goes like this
No, Dr. Krugman, it's not Bush that the Republicans are addicted to. They are addicted to greed and to power and they are quite willing to throw the American middle class under the bus to get it. It's the mantra of the plutocrats that they truly are.
Right now America is limping along toward an abyss from which there is no return. If the Bushites gain power, we won't be limping, we'll be herded like lemmings over the edge of the cliff. Mitch McConnell and John Boehner are enemies of the American people and the most alarming thing about that fact is that the majority of the American people don't realize it.
At this juncture the Republican strategy is to provoke more and more white Americans into fearing blacks. Obama and his team know this and that's why they blundered so badly in reacting to the Shirley Sherrod debacle. Just the thought of Glenn Beck ranting and raving about Obama Administration being racist sent them spinning into the maelstrom without first getting a full background briefing.
If white independents by into this and embrace the fear that the Republicans are fomenting, President Obama is toast.
Recommend Recommended by 1616 Readers
Postscript
Professor Krugman'spiece is at http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/23/opinion/23krugman.html
Dear Professor Cole
And to all those watching tonight from beyond our shores, from parliaments and palaces to those who are huddled around radios in the forgotten corners of our world - our stories are singular, but our destiny is shared,
As one of the people who listened to this address on my bedroom radio at some ungodly hour of the morning and breathed a sigh of relief, I am concerned to read Paul Krugman's piece in today's New York Times. He postulates a return to the unlamented policies of Bush the Younger.
From where I am standing, I am seeing sucessful implementation of sensible domestic legislation, to provide health insurance that is not tied to employment, and to regulate the banks who got both US and EU into the present mess. I am seeing failure in the insoluble Middle Eastern region and as you document, ongoing war in Afghanistan with the option of a restarted war in Iraq under the banner of a Kurdistan war.
Given that we have not forgotten the pitiful performance of the potential presidential nominee ex-Governor Palin, the idea of a return to the failed policies of the Noughties scares me.
As you have explained that American presidential elections turn on the marginal voters of a few swing states, can we depend on the sane and sensible members of the American electorate to overcome the propaganda of the American media (which Jospeh Nye admitted are defective in his recent Chatham House talk) and preserve us from a total economic and international relations breakdown.
Dear Professor Cole
Anthony Cordesman's latest paper on the Miltary Balance in the Gulf gives the lie to Mr Netanyahu's crying "Wolf"
http://csis.org/files/publication/100422_GulfMilBal.pdf
It deserves far wider distribution, comment and explanation particularly to those in the US who are expecting the Iranians to try and anihalate the Israelis.
Dear Professor Cole
The cartoon in this weeks Economist says it all.
http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash2/hs071.ash2/36902_406230780266_637875266_4672718_4784084_n.jpg
Thee seems to be a consensus building that troops will need to be deployed in the Jordan Valley and the West Bank and apparently Gaza. President Abbas is reported to be happy with the idea.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/08/world/middleeast/08prexy.html
I am not sure that deploying US troops would be feasible, given the possibility of AIPAC pressure and the perception that they are fighting the Muslims. German, Polish and Turkish troops would be rather provocactive. That leaves the old mandate power Britain, the French, the Spanish and the Italians........ And of course, The Russians.
Part of their mission statement would have to be expelling the outlaw settlers from their hilltops and enclaves like Hebron, and tearing down the separation wall. It seems that certain segments of the Israeli Army might not obey orders to expel the outlaws.
I would appreciate one of your balanced and informed essays that discusses whether this action would be politically doable without setting off a major exchange of hostilities.
I understand the proximity of the US midterm elections. Of course it might be fun to put General Petraeus in charge of the operation once the elections are over.
Ahmet Davutoglu in his Chatham House speech makes it clear that Jerusalem and Masjid al Aksa are not to be touched without Turkey becoming seriously annoyed.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5TTUfnVq1dQ
Dear Professor Cole
This useful tool shows where the winds are and the meteorological conditions that casue them.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wind/The-Ghibli.htm
Dear Professor Cole
I suspect it is important not to leave out mention of the Desertec project.
http://www.desertec.org/en/concept/
It is a European Scale project and involves integrating North Africa with Europe and providing alternative sources of supply to balance the higs and lows of sources.
The technology and economics were analysed by Deutsche Aerospace whose documentation is worth reading.
http://www.dlr.de/tt/desktopdefault.aspx/tabid-2885/4422_read-6588/
This project holds considerable promise for the integration of EU and North Africa/ Middle East.
Dear Professor Cole
Perhaps after the Helen Thomas episode and the Octavia Nasr episode it is open season on Lebanese journalists.
Dear Professor Cole
Thank you for the videos of the behaviour of the squatters in Hebron. In UK the provocative behaviour of the squatter lady would have had her arrested and charged with harrassment and conduct likely to lead to a breach of the peace.
I picked this quote up from Stephen Walt's blog and find it apropriate
You can't be afraid of words that speak the truth. I don't like words that hide the truth. I don't like words that conceal reality. I don't like euphemisms or euphemistic language. And American english is loaded with euphemisms. Because Americans have a lot of trouble dealing with reality. Americans have trouble facing the truth, so they invent a kind of a soft language to protect themselves from it. And it gets worse with every generation.
Nick Kristof's piece in NYTimes this morning and last week understates the level of misbehaviour of the squatters, observed by the Israeli Army who do not intervene, but starts to break through the wall of incomprehension in the US of the situation in Palestine.
If Education is a process of diminishing deception then Kristof's pieces are a valuable start in showing US citizens what is being done in their name. Analysis of the comments on his Facebook site reveals the division into those stating unconditional support for Israel Right or Wrong, those who are seeking further information, and those who understand and know the reality of what is happening.
By provding a window on the reality of the behaviour of the squatters you are providing President Obama a valuable service by illustrating a justification for his pressure on the government in Jerusalem.
Dear Professor Cole
Thank you so much for this piece, particularly the link between the Iraqi situation and the Lebanese situation.
Ayatollah Sistani will celebrate his 80th birthday on 4th August 2010. I wonder what the succession might be.
There is something of a feeling of deja vu about discussion coming back to Lebanon ten years after I started reading into Middle Eastern subjects starting with a few books on Lebanon, including yours and Nikkie Keddie's.
It is useful to speculate on whether the emergence of a Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon Alliance focussed on Economic Reconstruction might be a viable way forward in the area or whether the prospect will be derailled by the anachroistic ideas of the Israelis.
Dear Professor Cole
We at least BP isn't on the front pages today so that is two problems solved.
Er Patton?
He got fired for saying things to newspapers too.
Dear Professor Cole.
The Guardian is reporting that General McCrystal has been recalled to Washington.
They also report that Sir Sherard Cooper Cowles has gone on leave in protest at differences in opinion over strategy.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jun/21/uk-special-envoy-afghanistan-quits
It is quite horrifying that these disputes among the senior command resemble Kabul 1842.
That Episode ended at Gandamak with the last stand of the 44th regiment.
http://www.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=http://southerncrossreview.org/55/british-afghan_archivos/image005.jpg&imgrefurl=http://southerncrossreview.org/55/british-afghan.htm&h=273&w=460&sz=26&tbnid=9LPuy9fpZAuomM:&tbnh=76&tbnw=128&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dgandamak%2Bpicture&hl=en&usg=__5QvO3THtAVafOoJplh4S2i79O1M=&sa=X&ei=LqUgTKrhJJDQjAf0pbXiDw&ved=0CB0Q9QEwAA
Note to company grade officers: Captain Souter wrapped his regimental colour around his waist and was taken prisoner because he looked like he would command a ransom.
Brands Lebanese Women's Aid Mission 'Hizbullah'
(With Correction)
Dear Professor Cole
The Jerusalem Post today (25 June 2010) reports two items of interest.
One is a claim by the IDF to being about to increase the amounts shipped to Gaza by 200%.
http://www.jpost.com/Israel/Article.aspx?id=179482
These claims need independnet verification.
The second (and more worrying one ) is a proposal by the Israeli Foreign Minister to dump Gaza in the lap of the EU and completely abandon their responsibilities as occupying power.
http://www.jpost.com/Israel/Article.aspx?id=179479
Taken together with Moshe Arens recent proposal for a One State Solution without the inclusion of the 1.5 million Gazans and Hosni Mubarak’s rejection of dumping the problem on Egypt the Israeli Agenda becomes clear.
I think this is something we would value your invaluable highly informed opinion on.
Dear Professor Cole
The Jerusalem Post today (25 June 2010) reports two items of interest.
One is a claim by the IDF to being about to increase the amounts shipped to Gaza by 200%.
http://www.jpost.com/Israel/Article.aspx?id=179482
These claims need independnet verification.
The second (and more worrying one ) is a proposal by the Israeli Foreign Minister to dump Gaza in the lap of the EU and completely abandon their responsibilities as occupying power.
http://www.jpost.com/Israel/Article.aspx?id=179482
Taken together with Moshe Arens recent proposal for a One State Solution without the inclusion of the 1.5 million Gazans and Hosni Mubarak's rejection of dumping the problem on Egypt the Israeli Agenda becomes clear.
I think this is something we would value your invaluable highly informed opinion on.
Dear Professor Cole
Your piece is of great importance in highlighting the error in the scale of what has been agreed against the amount that is required.
This seems to have been overlooked or disregarded by the UK newspapers where the Independent and Telegraph don't mention the measure on their front page and the Guardian's coverage is limited.
No timetable was issued for the publication of the list of banned items.
The crucial issue of whether commercial goods will be allowed to cross into Gaza to allow the recovery of its crippled economy was not explicitly addressed in the statements. Decisions are still pending, according to an Israeli official. Blair's office insisted that the intention was "to get the private sector going".
Aid agencies have cautioned that concrete implementation of any relaxation of the siege could be hampered by Israeli foot-dragging. "The siege must be ended, not just eased," said UN spokesman Chris Gunness. "Otherwise Israel continues to be in breach of international law."
The Times mentions the Turkish embargo on buying Israeli drones and tanks which may of course have an impact. (The Times)
Israel has been increasingly isolated since the killings, in particular from Turkey, its former strategic ally in the Muslim world. Yesterday Turkey froze billions of dollars in military deals with Israel, including one $5 billion (£3.4 billion) contract for 1,000 Israeli tanks. The announcement dealt a serious blow to a vital sector of the Israeli economy.
Late Update Haaretz 19 June
Cruel and unnecessary (This Inquiry looks more and more like the plot of a Marx Brothers film)
One of the members of the ministerial forum of seven was walking through the Knesset corridors on Monday, when he ran into someone. The latter told the minister that press photographers had just come from the home of Prof. Shabtai Rosenne, a member of the Turkel committee of inquiry into the Gaza flotilla episode, who is 93, wheelchair-ridden, has a permanent caregiver and was photographed in pajamas. The minister gave his interlocutor a stunned look.
"You're joking, right?" he asked.
"No," the man replied.
"Is this a joke or not?" the minister persisted.
"Absolutely not," the interlocutor said.
The minister repeated, "You have to tell me, seriously: Are you pulling my leg?"
"No, it's true," the other person repeated, a bit embarrassed.
The minister swallowed hard. "It doesn't look good," he mumbled to himself.
Even though he belongs to the exclusive, all-knowing forum that authorized the committee's composition, no one told the man about the physical condition of one of the three panel members, just as he had not been told all the details about the flotilla making its way to Gaza more than two weeks ago.
Probably not even the prime minister knew about Rosenne. The justice minister, Yaakov Neeman, and committee chairman Turkel met with the world-renowned jurist in his home. Afterward, Neeman told Netanyahu that Rosenne is "lucid."
At one point that day the premier and his aides even considered replacing Prof. Rosenne or asking him to step down, but both ideas were vetoed. The first, because of the tremendous PR damage it would do to the Prime Minister's Bureau, which would once again look like something out of a French farce; and the second, because it would be heartbreaking: The professor was photographed perusing a thick file entitled "The Gaza Flotilla." There he was, already at work. To take that away from him, especially as he has nothing wrong, would be cruelty akin to abusing the helpless.
Referring to the mention above of the Lord Chief Justice of England Lord Widgery, I think the age of the justices must be taken into account.
The Wikipedia entry describes his final few years as follows.
His later years in office were marred by persistent ill health and mental decline. In Private Eye[6] it was observed that "he sits hunched and scowling, squinting into his books from a range of three inches, his wig awry. He keeps up a muttered commentary of bad-tempered and irrelevant questions – 'What d'you say?', 'Speak up', 'Don't shout', 'Whipper-snapper', etc.". He resisted attempts to get him to resign until the last moment in 1980. For at least 18 months previously he had not been in control of either his administrative work or his legal pronouncements, and it soon became apparent that he was suffering from dementia, and he died two days following his 70th birthday in 1981.
Today's Daily Telegraph picks up Israeli comment along the same lines as mine.
Mr Netanyahu has angrily denounced such suggestions, insisting that the inquiry would be lawful and transparent. He gave warning that enemies, and even some allies, were involved in a campaign to destroy Israel.
"Dark forces from the Middle Ages are raging against us," he said. "We find ourselves in the midst of a difficult and continuous battle against the State of Israel."
But even some Israeli newspapers questioned the nature of an inquiry which will not be allowed to interview military officers involved in the raid and will instead focus on questions of international law. They also pointed out that the youngest member of the investigating committee is 75, while the oldest is 93.
"This will be a particularly inexpensive committee," columnist Nahum Barnea noted in the Yediot Ahronot newspaper. "There is no need to hear witnesses, and no need to crosscheck testimonies. What is necessary is a good kettle, a few cups of tea and a good bell, to ensure that the committee does not fall into a coma."
Mr Justice Stevens seems to agree that 35 years service at age 90 is a good innings.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/barackobama/7553922/Supreme-Court-Justice-John-Paul-Stevens-will-surely-retire-with-Barack-Obama-in-office.html
Dear Professor Cole
I am astounded and offended that the comission of Inquiry includes a 93 year old Professor of Law and an 84 year old Retired Israeli General and that the chairman doesn't even believe in the process.
Even the Pope makes cardinals and bishops pack it in at 75.
One of the Observers joined the Friends of Israel group two weeks ago according to Haaretz.
The BBC's tone of astonishment and cynicism is quite right.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/10305902.stm
This is such a blatant insult to the intelligence of the Western World that it beggars belief. Tikkun Olam picks up the farcical nature of this display of contempt.
http://www.richardsilverstein.com/tikun_olam/tag/israeli-supreme-court/
Dear Professor Cole
Ghada Karmi discusses the options for a Palestinian State in her book "Married to Another Man"
Simply providing a "State" that has no control over its frontiers and Utilities is rather useless. The Two Sate solution should be understood in an Irish context as Home Rule which was a placebo to keep Irish Nationalism quiet.
The point about frontiers is important because of the coastline of Gaza. Coastal states have what is described in The Law of the Sea as an exclusive Economic Zone strecthing 200 Nautical Miles out to Sea. The Gazan one would need to be divided with the Egyptians according to customary practice.
Israel has been trumpeting a find of major offshore gas fields in the last couple of weeks. It will be instructive to see whether these gas fields are located in what would be a Gazan Exclusive Economic Zone.
The need to police this zone then leads to the need for a Palestinian Navy to enforce the controls, thus undermining the case for a dimiltarised Palestinian state.
It would be intolerable if the efforts to drive the population of Gaza into Sinai were to deprive a Palestinian state of the revenue and power generation opportunities associated with these gas fields. Sixty years after the Nakba, allowing the Israeli state to steal the mineral rights of the descendants of the refugees of 1948 and 67 would be heinous.
The revenue from the gas would compensate for the prospective flight of venture capital from a future One State.
I agree with Ghada Karmi's recommendation of a One State solution, but that of course is contingent on removal of the Israeli Nuclear Weapons and the formation of a Palestinian Core Body of Competence that can provide a civil service and business class that can run the country on a par with their Jewish neighbours.
Dear Professor Cole.
As I read your book I wondered why there seems to be no mention of water.
With Amman in danger of running out of drinking water and the Jordan river drying up and the Sea of galilee shrinking in the srought, something has to give soon.
The progress on Red Dead is disappointing
So what rivers to the North of the occupied territories might be useful to have?
What rivers to the West of Eilat might be useful to have?
Dear Professor Cole
This can only end in a lot of shooting and lot of people dead.
Once Al Quds is surrounded the crazies can start fiddling with the Haram al Sharif.
Sbig Brezinski talks about sending a NATO or EU force into the Jordan Valley. EU force is likely to be more non partisan and less open to the influence of the lobyists that Obama was talking about on TV last night.