I protest. As a disenfranchised citizen of the Rest of World I find it appalling that this canddate for US President should behave like a bull in a china shop. Everything that is reported in this article undermines everything that is being done to avoid the Palestine issue breaking out into open fighting
He might as well have advocated the building of the Third Temple while he was at it.
Romney takes hard line on Iran in Israel speech
The Republican challenger to Obama also refers to Jerusalem as the Israeli capital and visits the Western Wall.
Romney, his wife, Ann, and son Josh spent the evening at the home of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who invited the Romneys to join him in breaking the traditional fast of Tisha B'Av, a Jewish observance that commemorates the destruction of the first and second Jewish temples of Jerusalem.
Carl Lewis got it right when he said 'Seriously, some Americans just shouldn't leave the country,'
"The CIA considers Israel its No 1 counterintelligence threat in the agency's Near East Division, the group that oversees spying across the Middle East, according to current and former officials. Counterintelligence is the art of protecting national secrets from spies. This means the CIA believes that US national secrets are safer from other Middle Eastern governments than from Israel."
Having outed MI6 in London as part of what is being referred to on Twitter as the Romneyshambles, I wonder what other cats he will let out of the bag in Israel.
Isn't difficulty remebering names the first sign of the onset of senile dementia? If the candidate is going gaga we need to inspect the choice for Veep carefully.
BBC news at 1pm uk time reports that Damascus is being Systematically cleared of rebels. The Tet model seems to hold up, and it is clear that a competent military mind is running the show
A holding action in Halab (Aleppo) will allow it to be cleared later in the week.
Smaller forces will be required to open the roads for truck traffic.
There is an old saying in the military that everyone wants to be a strategist but real men want to do logistics. That is, “The aspect of military operations that deals with the procurement, distribution, maintenance, and replacement of materiel and personnel.” Border crossings are pivotal to this sector of war-making
Correct.
The counter to this is now ambushes of the trucks carrying reinforcements and ammunition for the rebels.
I counselled some of my friends to look at the Tet offensive in Vietnam in 1968, to see the similarities with Damascus today.
The VC committed 70,000 men in that action of which they lost 37,000 so militarily the US won.
What the US lost was the battle of the narrative.
In Damascus I don’t understand the rebel logistics. I don’t understand how and where they have stockpiled their ammunition, and how resupply is to take place along long supply lines from Lebanon.
I expect that, as in Homs, the rebels will run out of ammunition and will have to either hide or run for it to Jordan or Lebanon.
There is always the possibility that some of the rebel groups have been suckered into making suicidal attacks on the regime stronghold, by their political opponents, to remove them from the scene.
Let us beware of press reports of imminent collapse of the regime in Damascus until we see proof.
Actually if I were a Syrian General I would be pleased that the rebels have gone off at half cock and engaged in Damascus where they can be destroyed piecemeal.
I wonder if this is in fact a sign of deperation on the part of the rebels. Apparently their support has been cut off for the rest of the year.
"US refuses to help Syrian rebels until after election
Barack Obama’s US government has warned its western allies and Syria’s opposition groups that it can do nothing to intervene in the country’s crisis until after November’s presidential election, The Daily Telegraph has learned. "
"Syrian lobby groups in Washington, who only a few weeks ago were expressing hope that the Obama administration might give a green light to the supply of anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, said they had now been forced to “take a reality pill” by the US government.
The Telegraph understands that the Syrian Support Group (SSG), the political wing of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), recently presented American officials with a document requesting 1,000 RPG-29 anti-tank missiles, 500 SAM-7 rockets, 750 23mm machine guns as well as body armour and secure satellite phones. They also asked for $6m to pay rebel fighters as they battle the regime. All their requests were rejected. "
On behalf of the disenfranchised suppliers of Auxilliary Troops and consumer markets in Rest of World may I express my thanks for publishing this.
What would have made it perfect would have been the Iron Triangle if you had added in a picture of John Bolton and his moustache as Secretary of State.
I wonder if you are missing the point. Libya may be more or less pacified, but in a similar way Bohemia after the Battle of White Mountain the displaced losers are destabilising the surrounding area.
With the Bohemian army destroyed, Tilly entered Prague and the revolt collapsed. King Frederick with his wife Elizabeth fled the country (hence his nickname the Winter King), and many citizens welcomed the restoration of Catholicism. Forty-seven noble leaders of the insurrection were tried, and twenty-seven were executed on what is called "the Day of Blood" by Protestants at Prague's Old Town Square. Amongst those executed were Kryštof Harant and Jan Jesenius. Today, 27 crosses have been inlaid in the cobblestone as a tribute to those victims. An estimated five-sixths of the Bohemian nobility went into exile soon after the Battle of White Mountain, and their properties were confiscated.[8] Before the war about 151,000 farmsteads existed in the Lands of Bohemian Crown, while only 50,000 remained after the year 1648. The number of inhabitants decreased from 3 million to 800,000.[9] The Thirty Years War had still another 28 years to run, and Bohemia was often the scene of much bloodshed.
But there was still a strong Protestant army in Silesia under the command of Johann Georg of Hohenzollern, Duke of Brandenburg-Jägerndorf which continued fighting the Imperial army in Moravia and in what today is Slovakia until 1623.
In 1621, the Emperor ordered all Calvinists and other non-Lutherans to leave the realm in 3 days or to convert to Catholicism. Next year, he also ordered all Lutherans (who primarily had not been involved in the revolt) to convert or leave the country. By 1627, Archbishop Harrach of Prague and Jaroslav Borzita of Martinice set out to peacefully convert the heretics as they were termed; most Bohemians converted, but a significant Protestant minority remained. Spanish troops, seeking to encircle their rebellious Dutch provinces, seized the Palatinate electoral lands. With the prospect of Protestantism being overrun in Germany, Denmark entered the struggle. Sweden was to join the Protestant forces in 1630.
Africom may yet rue the day they won their first victory, and sowed dragons teeth.
"If Americans have anything to fear, it is Romney’s foreign policy team."
It is we the disenfranchised providers of the Auxillary troops who are scared witless by the prospect of Romney's foreign policy team.
The head of MI5 has just told us of the wave of British Jihadis heading off to Yemen and Somalia and Libya to learn the practical skills. These have caused the need for Rapier batteries on tower blocks in London to protect the Olympics. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-18590209
The next time the US blunders into a mistake, it is to be hoped we won't follow.
"However, the Nato secretary general, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, made it clear that the alliance was not considering a collective armed response. Following an emergency meeting in Brussels called by Turkey to discuss the downing of the Phantom F-4 aircraft, Rasmussen said the allies "expressed strong condemnation of this completely unacceptable act" but said the possibility of invoking article five of the North Atlantic Treaty, under which all allies intervene to defend against any attack on any member state, had not been discussed.
"We stand together with Turkey in spirit of solidarity," Rasmussen said. But when asked how Nato would respond if there was another such incident, the Nato secretary-general said only that the allies would once again "consult", while remaining "seized of the situation". He said he did not think there would be a repeat of the incident.
Turkey said its jet had unintentionally strayed into Syrian airspace while on patrol but had been shot down over international waters.
Turkish political observers say that the rare formal consultation with Nato allies (under article four, which has only been invoked once before, by Turkey in 2003) and Erdoğan's heated rhetoric is designed for domestic public consumption, to compensate for the absence of any direct retaliation."
"I don’t think either Turkey or other NATO members will be at all happy to be drawn into military action in Syria. (Nor do I think that would be a good idea)."
I am glad you said that. For a moment I wondered if you approved of this nonsensical escalation. Dinging a recon aircraft that has been infringing your airspace while mapping your radar is cause for a diplomatic note, not for invoking article 5.
We had rules of engagement in Germany precisely to avoid a small incident where a patrol or an aircraft got lost, escalating to World War III.
An armoured divison that crosses your frontier triggers Article 5.
You will recall that Turkey did not invoke Article 5 in response to the act of Piracy on the High Seas by the Israelis against their shipping a few years ago.
Can we reputable and level headed commentators perhaps serve a greater good by maintaining a rational aproach to the problem
I should refer Fox to a book called "the Bible". It has a bit in it called Exodus.
It describes the journey from Sharia al Abid in Giza to places like Jericho and suchlike.
It might eventually dawn on Fox that they have got their rivers mixed up, and that the Egyptians live near the Nile whereas Jerusalem is quite near the Jordan.
Of course this an understandable mistake. There was a Mister Cheney who got the Tigris and Euphrates mixed up with the Jordan a few years ago. He was looking in the wrong bit of the Bible called Kings.
What a convincing argument for the establishment of the Middle Eastern WMD Free zone! This lady's reading list is a good place to start for those who don't know how to build one. http://www.chathamhouse.org/about-us/directory/182053
The more I read, the more I understand the Tanzimat, and Attaturk's reforms in Turkey.
As the major problem in Egypt is capital creation and the provision of jobs I do wonder how either of these problems would be addressed by a goverment of Soldiers and the Mosque.
Ahmed Nazif when he was Prime Minister drew on his colleagues from Cairo University to fill ministerial ranks with technocrats.
I wonder how a credible government can be formed that can put together an Economic Development plan that has enough credibility to release funds from IMF and other funding bodies?
I wonder who will be responsible for corruption, either in stamping down on it or in managing and directing it. We still await clarification of what happened to Mubarak's Billion Euros, and whether Susanne will be a Merry Widow.
I am most intrigued to understand how Islam in Turkey generated an economic revival, whereas in Egypt, Syria and other places it is seen as a return to the Dark Ages, a most misleading term that, while applicable to Europe, was in fact a period of flowering of civilisation in North Africa and the area currently described as the Middle East.
I do find your opinion that Egypt will follow the Turkish model rather than the Algerian one most reassuring.
Today is however Friday so we will need to see what the message from the Imams is.
I do rather think that the blatant chicanery by the Judiciary will generate a reaction of "You can't win" among the young, the Left and the Islamists, and drive them to take up arms.
An interesting question will be whether Morsi, if he wins, can purge the Judiciary.
I did hear an interesting story (unconfirmed) that the Army has been building large volume prison camps in the desert.
One wonders how much money is left in the Treasury.
The article already casts doubt on the validity of the result and a low turnout will undermine the legitimacy of whoever gets elected.
I do hope you will be in Cairo, Alex, Luxor and Upper Egypt to interpret the outcome for us. You seem to have mastered the "Absence of Body, is better than Presence of Mind" principle and know when to catch the last plane out before the shooting starts.
If the guy was one of the clique surounding Mubarak and sharing the proceeds it would be sensible to eliminate him, if you are trying to make a clean break.
It seems people are a little peeved that Mubarak's codefendants got off.
One starts to understand the cynicsm of Alaa al Aswany in the "Yacoubian Building" and we will see this reflected on the streets in the coming weeks as people's frustration shows.
"The stories of each of the primary characters are often intertwined, at times colliding or converging with one another. Together, they give a biting condemnation of a nation that has squandered its promise and which has been forced to compromise its own principles, resulting in a corrupt and undemocratic political system dominated by a single party (the fictitious "Patriotic Party", a thinly-veiled version of Egypt's National Democratic Party), a society whose most talented members abandon the country for promising careers abroad, and an increasingly disenchanted and restive populace that has no loyalty to the government and which sees extremist Islam as one of the few viable options to counter growing poverty, economic stagnation, and a perceived degradation of morals and lack of social cohesion. "
Chemical Weapons are notoriously difficult to use effectively, particularly if you don't have effective delivery sytems. There is a great danger of blowback hitting your own forces.
Syrian Chemical weapons is a story that resurfaces every couple of years since 2004.
Great care should taken to avoid subscribing to press hysteria.
De Soto, a famous Peruvian Economist described how a working Land Registry is an essential facet of a modern state.
As you describe the modern equivalent of the Scottish Clearances where sheep were judged more profitable than crofters, under the Hannover Kings, the tragedy of Capitalism becomes apparent. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highland_Clearances
I wonder if you mind if I take issue with your piece. I am inclined to sit on the fence for a week and then await rational decision making when the emotion has drained out of the situation.
"What has become so striking is that, whilst this "information warfare" may have been almost irreversibly effective in demonizing President Assad in the West, it has also had the effect of "unanchoring" European and American foreign policy. It has become cast adrift from any real geo-strategic mooring. This has led to a situation in which European policy has become wholly suggestible to such "advocacy reporting", and the need to respond to it, moment-by- moment, in emotive, moralistic blasts of sound-bites accusing President Assad of having "blood on its hands". "
I am actually impressed with the British Foreign Office (FCO) position and with General Dempsey's caution.
FCO are being quite careful NOT to declare a civil war while Annan still needs to report back to UNSC. We also need to hear General Mood's report on the massacre.
I am haunted by the spectre of the atrocities of the Spanish Civil War, and the half million dead and displaced and so am inclined to see what can be done to avoid a similar occurrence in Syria and the surrounding countries. I suspect the outcome of a Syrian Civil War will be the same as the Spanish one. The big battalions win.
The fragmented nature of Islam in Syria and the 10% Christian community means that the situation has the potential to become quite as messy as any seen in Germany during the Thirty Years War, and to spread to draw in regional powers. We saw the casualty toll in Armenia resulting from a Turkish administrative decision in 1915.
At this point my main concern is how to help extract my friends from the country, and how to help support those who are unable to leave. I don't want to hear of friends starving in small towns in Syria or massacred in their beds over some obscure doctrinal issue.
So, having avoided getting killed in the doomed Operation Armageddon in Ireland forty years ago, can I suggest we cool it, take a deep breath, and wait to see if the Russians can calm things down.
"We will present an appeal on behalf of candidate Hamdeen Sabahi ... to the presidential electoral committee, citing a series of irregularities ... that have affected the outcome of the first round," lawyer Essam El-Islamboly told the Reuters news agency.
Islamboly said the appeal, to be lodged on Sunday or Monday at the latest, would ask the electoral committee to suspend the election until the prosecutor-general checks a claim by a police officer that the Interior Ministry had illegally assigned 900,000 votes to Shafiq.
He said Sabahi also wanted the election halted until the constitutional court rules on the validity of an April decision
by the electoral committee to disqualify Shafiq.
The committee swiftly lifted its ban on Shafiq, but referred a new law barring top Mubarak-era officials from the race to the constitutional court."
The fat would seem to be in the fire, and the credibility of the elections to be in doubt. Are we surprised??
A conversation with some Egyptian Christians at a trade fair in Germany last year revealed their degree of concern at events in Egypt.
Given that thye are said to have voted largely for the fulul Shafiq is there a danger of an outbreak of religous strife between the Xtians and the Muslims if Shafiq wins.
This seems to a regular occurrence in Cairo and Alexandria.
If the Xtians are seen to have handed the baton to the blowback Shafiq will the Left and the MB gang up on them?
What might the effect of this dislocation be on the Egyptian economy?
A high point of my first visit to Cairo was to be led through the police lines between the Copts and the Muslims to go and see the Coptic Churches and the Synagogue in southern Cairo.
A victory for either of them looks like a recipe for civil disturbance on a large scale.
Are we likely to see a rerun of the Syria and Libya scenario with arms being smuggled to insurgents to fight the Army? 10,000 missing MANPADS is a rather nasty factor in the region. Still, if the Wahabis leave Syria and go to Egypt this may be a benefit.
Will further disturbances impede the delivery of an IMF loan to bale out the economy if disturbances continue to kill the tourist trade?
How are food supplies holding up?
Nasty business this democracy and plebiscite exercise.
We already discount many sources such as Fox News and Wall Street Journal. Much discussion exists on Facebook regarding the distortions in the Main Stream Media regarding Syria over the past year.
What this is doing is pushing us to using secondary sources as our primary source of news. This makes us vulnerable to a possible lack of journalistic ethics and editorial control at these secondary sources.
Formalising the broadcast of Newspeak to the US as well as the rest of us will inevitably lead to lots of us doing time in reeducation camps modeled on Guantanamo.
The report states that much of the trade is being financed through Russian banks which take large comissions. Not much hope of separating the Russians and Chinese on Iran and Syria then.
No need to apologise for the Daily Mail piece. At least it wasn't "The Sun". We are all, quite obviously, just as interested in Hilary's Blazer and Sunglasses as in the geopolitics of the emergence of a new reserve currency. The photographs of celebs in their bikinis is just icing on the cake.
Unfortunately your link to Privaye Eye only takes me to a front page and not to a list of people who might never have taken out injunctions that stop me finding out if they ever took out injunctions
Mssrs Sue, Grabbitt, and Runne must have employed hackers
"Stuxnet may be proof of Iran's vulnerability and the effectiveness of other nation-states' cyber-arsenals. However, it would also be possible for Iran to gain some knowledge for creating a Stuxnet-like virus from analyzing its effects," Rep. Yvette Clarke (D) of New York said at the hearing of the Counterterrorism and Intelligence Subcommittee and the Cyber-security, Infrastructure Protection and Security Technologies Subcommittee, titled "Iranian Cyber Threat to the U.S. Homeland."
It is instructive to compare the reporting of a shift in US Nuclear policy vis a vis Iran from LAT Times with Haaretz
If you can’t change American public opinion, you will never change American foreign policy. And until America steps aside from protecting Israel from criticism, as Simon’s CBS report actually accomplishes in a very subtle way, then the conflict will never end. There will never be peace in Israel. And Palestine will never exist as a state.
In the end, and from watching the report several times, it sure looked to me like CBS pulled its punches to soften the criticism and leave the question of the fate of Christians up in the air.
All because of Oren’s complaint.
After all, who wants to be accused by Israel of being anti-Semitic?
"If Iran has drones, how long will it be before Hizbullah, the Shiite party of south Lebanon, has them and uses them over Israel? "
Probably quite a time.
The aircraft itself is only the platform. The drone seems to be designed for substantial lift and not high speed.
It is therefore vulnerable to conventional fighter aircraft and a decent radar system.
The drone captured was only a reconaissance drone so to use it as an offensive weapon there is also a requirement for missiles to be added, requiring further delivery of identifiable weapons systems.
To make sucessful use of drones there is a requirement for a satellite system to pass the signals and for very substantial encryption and error correction to compensate for the low signal strength.
Finally there is also a requirement for a ground station to fly the things from. This ground station will be easily identifiable to aerial reconaissance due to the emitted radiation on the satellite uplink which will make it vulnerable to an Anti Radiation Missile. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AGM-88_HARM
Ground stations are also vulnerable to commando or special forces raids, which is why much US drone activity is flown from Virginia.
This last obstacle can of course be overcome by basing the ground station in another country
The hair trigger nature of the situation seems to be highlighted by this.
The experienced Israeli intelligence correspondent Ronen Bergman argues that the decision to attack Iran militarily “will be driven to an extraordinary extent by intelligence reports” produced by Washington and Tel Aviv. For this reason, he argues, “even a slight intelligence gaffe could have an outcome of historic proportions”. Furthermore, he calls on America and Israel not to rely on “scraps of information [...] as the basis for action against Iran”, insisting that “a miscalculation could be the worst possible outcome”.
Actually I do have experience of the problem from Northern Ireland in 1969 whose situation was similar to the Syrian one. I was working in an Irish Refugee camp and busloads of women and children were coming in from Belfast having been burnt out of their homes and fired on by the police.
We narrowly avoided armed intervention in Operation Armageddon, with the lead elements of the Irish Army stopped two miles short of the border by a police superintendant.
The plot to ship weapons by various ministers was uncovered and stopped. If both sides had been armed to the extent envisioned there would have been a bloodbath.
It is only when you see Belfast and Derry and then see Kosovo and Iraq that you realise what a mistake allowing an armed uprising to take place might be. The breakthrough moment probably came when the British Army realised they could never achieve a military victory.
You might like this from BBC World Service. Barbara Plett sounds very well informed and I thought she deserves a prize for such a clear explanation of the powderkeg situation in Syria. You can download the MP3. http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00q87x7
" This week saw the surprise visit to the Free Syrian Army – the main, Turkish-based rebel force – of US senators Joe Lieberman and John McCain. "This is war," they declared with their familiar belligerence. "Diplomacy with Assad has failed!" They called for arming the rebels and for foreign air power to defeat the Syrian army."
"But Annan is right in declaring that "any further militarisation of the conflict would be disastrous". Even armed with weapons from outside, the opposition could not hope to reverse the balance of military power, still overwhelmingly on the side of the regime. To think otherwise is political insanity. The more the opposition resorts to arms, the more the regime will feel justified in crushing it."
After One day of a ceasefire in Syria it might be helpful to allow it a chance to work. Yes there are lots of dead, in distressing circumstances, but there will be lots more dead and atrocities if things are allowed to spin out of control into a regional civil war.
As the Guardian says Annan's plan is the only game left in town.
But it would be a fatal mistake to dismiss the Annan plan prematurely and argue that because Syria is already burning out of control, a Nato intervention could not precipitate a wider conflict. It could, and it would. Despite the tough words since Monday, when Syrian shelling killed two people in a Turkish refugee camp near the border, Turkey is supremely reluctant to create a humanitarian corridor inside Syria, mindful of what happened with the Kurds the last time this was tried. A regional war on its Syrian border is the last thing Ankara wants or needs. Prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's invocation of Nato's responsibilities under the article 5 mutual aid clause to protect the Turkish border was another expression of how reluctant his country would be to act alone. Add to that brew a fractured opposition, armed rebel groups nowhere near big enough to challenge loyalist forces, the slow rate of defections and the opportunity that jihadis in western Iraq would have to make mayhem just over their border; include Hizbollah and Iran in this mix and the civil war taking place now would be as nothing to the bloodshed that would result from any foreign intervention.
Stephen Walt captures the essential point in his piece
"And as Bali and Rana emphasize, even well-intentioned humanitarian intervention can have the unintended consequence of putting more Syrian lives at risk. Thus, for both strategic and moral reasons, the international community should concentrate on stopping what is now a slowly escalating civil war, instead of trying to escalate it. This may not be a morally heroic stance, but it is realistic."
How we or you explain to your readers, without sounding like heartless ogres, that sometimes inaction on individual issues may support the achievement of a larger objective is a difficult but worthwhile question.
The Kurds in fact walked out of the opposition conference in Turkey.
In the past I have made reference to the unresolved issue in Iraq of the Battle of Kirkuk that remains to be fought. The city of Mosul may also be dragged into the conflict over the boundary of this autonomous region and its right to conclude contracts with Oil Companies independent of the Iraqi government.
Allowing anything to go Bang in the Mosul area is fraught with danger given the reports of instability in the Shambarakat Dam on the Tigris.
The exisitence of Israeli bases in Kurdistan has been reported for many years and has recently been highlighted as a jumping off point for Israeli entry into Iran.
Secession by the Syrian Kurds would extend the Kurdistan Turkish border and extend the area of concern to the Turkish Army.
Just as the fallout from the Libyan intervention has had knock on effects in Mali and is destabilising Central Africa so the Syrian situation if it is not contained and pacified will bring the region clattering down around everyone's ears.
Pompey, Crassus and Abraham Lincoln would understand.
Attempts at or aspirations of secession from the United States have been a feature of the country's politics since its birth. Some have argued for a constitutional right of secession and others for a natural right of revolution. The United States Supreme Court ruled unilateral secession unconstitutional while commenting that revolution or consent of the states could lead to a successful secession.
The one serious secession movement was defeated in the American Civil War. In 1860-1861, eleven of the fifteen southern states where slavery was legal declared their secession from the United States and joined together as the Confederate States of America. It collapsed in 1865 after losing the war with the northern states.
You omit the breakdown of relations between Israel and Russia and China.
This recent commentary by Bhadrakumar on the nascent relationship between Israel China shows who is moving to a position of calling the shots in the Middle East.
Treason: Violation of allegiance toward one's country or sovereign, especially the betrayal of one's country by waging war against it or by consciously and purposely acting to aid its enemies.
Sedition: Conduct or language inciting rebellion against the authority of a state.
One should look out for the continued misuse of words in the Middle East.
A defector is one who has defected i.e. To disown allegiance to one's country and take up residence in another: a Soviet citizen who defected to Israel.
A deserter is one who has deserted i.e. To abandon (a military post, for example) in violation of orders or an oath.
v.intr.
To forsake one's duty or post, especially to be absent without leave from the armed forces with no intention of returning.
A settler is defined as: a person who settles in a new country or a colony
A squatter is defined as: An individual who settles on the land of another person without any legal authority to do so, or without acquiring a legal title.
In the past, the term squatter specifically applied to an individual who settled on public land. Currently it is used interchangeably with intruder and trespasser.
ROMNEY: I think he threw Israel under the bus with regards to defining the ’67 borders as a starting point of negotiations. I think he disrespected Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Er which one is President of the largest economy on earth and the leading military power in the world, and which one is the prime minster of a client state of less than 8 million inhabitants, dependent on the goodwill of the superpower for money, arms and protection.
As Bill Clinton said on Bibii: ~"Who the F does he think he is? -Who's the Effing superpower here"?
Just as I was thinking to myself how much I envy your students the opportunity to attend your lectures, and wondered how many of the lectures are online, we hit the problem with the video medium.
You mentioned Miroslav Hroch and others work on the nationalist movements of the 19th century. Given the similarities between the Arab Spring and the movements of 1848 in Europe this is a relevant remark.
Video doesn't provide a References section.
I learn by picking up on references to things I don't know about and following them. Miroslav Who?
Thank you for this enlightening desciption of the problems facing the Republican Party.
It will be particularly valuable for the chaps in Tel Aviv and Al Quds who wish to meddle with the US presidential election so as to get a candidate elected who will subscribe to their Apocalyptic plans for the Middle East.
Even if they do not suceed in conning the US voters into electing any of the three flawed characters you describe, they will wish to leave Obama stalemated by an intrangient congress and unable to implement either domestic or foreign policy.
Let us look forward to an intractable manufactured crisis in the Middle East in the Summer of 2012, that puts Obama in the same situation electorally as James E Carter, who was whipped and beaten daily by the press for failing to recover his diplomats from Teheran, leaving their release to the economically illiterate Ronald Reagan.
Forewarned is forearmed, but, as the Greeks tell us, Cassandra (or any of their own economists) is not listened to.
No sooner did I finish writing about literacy in Egypt, than Nick Kristof pops up with an interview with a literate lady member of the Muslim Brotherhood.
Your point about reading newspapers is well made. I was surprised (mea culpa) when Tom Friedman mentioned this morning Egypt's illiteracy rate of 30%. Despite having spent a lot of time there I had overlooked this point.
I was so surprised that I went to CIA worldfactbook to check and found that the statistics are even worse with male literacy at 83% and female literacy at 59%.
Syria in contrast has 86% male literacy and 73.6% female literacy, despite all its handicaps.
It surely must be one of the most telling comments on the Mubarak regime that despite the vast sums of foreign aid supplied by the Americans since Sadat went to Jerusalem that a third of the country lacks elementary schooling.
I now understand why I was seeing elementary Arabic classes being run at Al Ahzar in Al Cahairo. It wasn't just Arabic that was being taught but also basic literacy.
Thank you so much for this reasoned, rational and factual analysis of the results of the first stage of the Egyptian Elections. It is this kind of objective insight that makes me read your column.
I have to compare it with the views of the seriously deranged Caroline Glick in Jerusalem Post.
I read the womans comments every now and again to see what the world might looklike from the Loony Right.
The propaganda is argued in a defective manner, and reaches a conclusion that flies in the face of reality. Given the amount of weapons and budget support supplied by the US, how anyone can complain that the US is no longer Israels ally is beyond me.
The usual warnings of prospective pogroms are trotted out.
"With vote tallies in for Egypt’s first round of parliamentary elections in it is abundantly clear that Egypt is on the fast track to becoming a totalitarian Islamic state. The first round of voting took place in Egypt’s most liberal, cosmopolitan cities. And still the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafists received more than 60 percent of the vote. Run-off elections for 52 seats will by all estimates increase their representation.
And then in the months to come, Egyptian voters in the far more Islamist Nile Delta and Sinai will undoubtedly provide the forces of jihadist Islam with an even greater margin of victory."
.....
"So too, there is little qualitative difference between blaming Israel for its isolation in the face of the Islamist takeover of the Arab world, and blaming the Jews for the rise of anti-Semites to power in places like Russia, Germany and Norway.
In truth, from Israel’s perspective, it really doesn’t make a difference whether these statements and the intellectual climate they represent stem from ideological myopia or from hatred of Jews.
The end result is the same in either case: Under President Obama, the US government has become hostile to Israel’s national rights and strategic imperatives. Under Obama, the US is no longer Israel’s ally."
Joe Nye talks about the use of Soft Power to increase a states influence. The sort of nonsense spouted in the article above actually strengthens the arguments of Clinton and Panetta, and undermines the case for any support for Israeli policies or actions.
It is time for the adults to enter the playground and take the children's toys away before someone gets hurt.
I agree with your commenter Steve that the place to look for illumination is in the later stages of the history of the Roman Empire, perhaps where the Emperor was chosen by acclaimation of the Praetorians (doubtless funded by the Lobby of the day)
I watched Sarah Palin bring out her family during the 2008 election, and wondered how earth it could be any kind of example or role model for anyone growing up in the US. No kind of higher education qualification among them except for the mother. Would any one of them read Walt or Nye or Parana or Cole or Kagan or Rousseau or Putin or Krugman or Hayek, or Friedman or Mearsheimer or Mahan or any of the authors recommended by Foreign Policy's list of 100 top thinkers.
Tom Clancy maybe.
My Chinese friends and colleagues would be astonished at the lack of rigour in the process that produces American leadership and would understand the advantage it gives them in strategy development and negotiation.
David Petraeus has a PhD in international relations and so comes across as someone who understands the subject and is perhaps one of the outstanding US Generals in the mould of Marshall, Eisenhower, Clay, McArthur.
I wonder if the US political process is descending to the state of the later Roman Empire where the Emperor was chosen by acclamation of the Praetorian guard, (with the approval of the Lobby that funded them.)
If it is, we Europeans will be wary of following them to whatever military or economic disaster they rush off to next.
I remember Nick Burns, the former Deputy Under Secretary of State telling us that he had been the US main man on Iran for many years but had never visted the country. He envied the UKs contacts within and insight into Iran.
It will be interesting to see if the Basji found objective evidence of UK involvement in the Baluchistan insurgency or the assasination program against Iranian Scientists.
I suspect it is important not to raise the hopes of Syrians too high, particularly of military intervention. (i agree I have read your previous piece on the inadvisability of intervention. beware of mission creep)
We need to bear in mind the horrible consequences of causing the Marsh Arabs to rise against Saddam Hussein.
Lying awake at night thinking to onseself "Dear God. What have I done?" is not a pleasant experience.
United States also played a role in encouraging the uprisings, which were then controversially not aided by the U.S. forces present on Iraqi soil.
The revolts in the Shia-dominated southern Iraq involved demoralized Iraqi Army troops and the anti-government Shia parties, in particular the Islamic Dawa Party and Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI). Another wave of insurgency broke out shortly afterwards in the Kurdish populated northern Iraq; unlike the spontaneous rebellion in the South, the uprising in the North was organized by two rival Kurdish party-based militias: the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), and some long-term planning had taken place."
"Although they presented a serious threat to the Iraqi Ba'ath Party regime, Saddam managed to suppress the rebellions with massive and indiscriminate force and maintained power. They were ruthlessly crushed by the loyalist forces spearheaded by the Iraqi Republican Guard and the population was successfully terrorized[dubious – discuss]. During the few weeks of unrest tens of thousands of people were killed. Many more died during the following months, while nearly two million Iraqis fled for their lives. In the aftermath, the government intensified the forced relocating of Marsh Arabs and the draining of the Iraqi marshlands, while the Allies established the Iraqi no-fly zones".
Would you care to explain what the Republican objection to Mr Romney is?
I know the rest of the world would fall about laughing at the idea of wondering if the President of the US is wearing "Magic Underpants". My Chinese colleagues were enthralled as I explained this to them.
Is there anything more than simple objection to his underwear?
Is the President still in control of the US government? You will recall that people treated Jimmy Carter as a wimp and went around him as described in "Charlie Wilksons War"
Con Coughlin in the Telegraph is a symptom of this insubordination. The recently departed Mr Foxs (The Minister for Defence) boyfriend was in thrall to Israeli funders.
Is the USAF remaining in Iraq after Xmas? One of the benefits of having there was that they could interdict an Israeli attack and if necessary shoot them down. If they go the direct route will be open.
My analysis suggests that Israelis might not wait for a green light from Washington but might attack first and then ask the rest of us to join in.
It is time to disarm the lunatics in Tel Aviv and institute the Middle Eastern Nuclear Free Zone.
When visiting Damascus it is important to visit Jussuf al Asmeh square, see his statue and to look up the man's story and understand where he sits in the Syrian psyche.
Outside interference in Syria will generate the same backlash that an attack on Iran will. Triggering wider hostilities on the Lebanese or Gaza front is to be avoided.
The Commanding General will have an interesting problem figuring out a withdrawal route, if the passes to Pakistan arent available. The Salang pass and tunnel might offer a route out, if people can cope with the smirking from the Russian Officers.
Nevertheless, the sense of urgency is real. Not only is Egypt falling apart, but Syria seems to be in a state of low-intensity civil war that could ignite the region in the near future. Iran according to some accounts is apparently racing toward a nuclear device. A war could put off the prisoner swap deal for years, and there is a real danger that Shalit might disappear.
Jim Lobe speculates that this Iranian Assasination plot is too good a chance for the crazies to miss, to corner the US into attacking Iran, daft as the idea is.
To be quite honest I dont really care if the guy is a Christian or a Wiccan, so long as long as he doesnt do much human sacrifice. The polygamy and animal mistreatment can be coped with.
What I do object to is the jerk dusting off George Ws foreign policies and foreign policy people.
Can you get him targeteted by the National Security Council?
What can we say about the protests? First things first: The protesters’ indictment of Wall Street as a destructive force, economically and politically, is completely right.
A weary cynicism, a belief that justice will never get served, has taken over much of our political debate — and, yes, I myself have sometimes succumbed. In the process, it has been easy to forget just how outrageous the story of our economic woes really is.
I get worried when works of fiction carry across into government policy. Tom Clancy in "Rainbow 6" and Gerald Seymour in "A Deniable Death" both advocate assassination by executive agencies.
Three points strike me about the drone assassination program.
1 What level does the assassination program reach down to?
At a million dollars a missile you cant really afford to knock off the ordinary Ahmed and Abdullah so some sort of Cost Benefit Analysis must apply. Does the lower level only qualify for a couple of hit men and an inquest covered by the Official Secrets Act? Using Hellfire missiles against a cottage in Northumbria would not be acceptable.
2 Once Assassination from the (so far) impregnable drone becomes the norm, people will seek a means to retaliate. If you can't hit the drone then US tourists and business people are the obvious targets. One wonders just who has Ghadaffi's SA-24 these days. I take great care to stand outside the field of fire of any attack on the El Al checkin desk at Cairo Airport. (just for the record, I would miss you and your daily reports and homilies if some divot blew you away)
3 Assassinating the leadership of organisations you are fighting against is the French policy in Algeria. As we know General Massu was so successful that when he was finished there was noone left to negotiate with. In the 21st Century such a technique merely generates a new generation of motivated youngsters to carry on the battle.
Graham keeps trying to find a pretext for the next war, dismayed at the prospect of the US slipping into peace. He had tried to get up a war against Iran, but hasn’t had any takers.
Your logical and reasoned analysis is quite correct in its predcition that the European states that collude with the US in aiding and abetting the ongoing crimes against humanity and breaches of international law in Palestine, will suffer the consequences.
Taking great care not to fall foul of laws that forbid the glorification of terrorism, I can see the logic that leads to the conclusion that if the legal system is rigged against you, it is time for direct action. Back to the flying lessons then and so forth. Some pretty good scores last time, some might say.
I object to the possibillity that I or my family and friends might be killed or maimed in an proxy attack that avenges some obtuse machinations by a foreign government with anachronistic and regressive policies.
Perhaps it is time that the European nations drew a line under the emotional embarassment about the events of the 1930s and 1940s and dealt (like the Turkish Prime Minister) with the slow burning fuse.
Suppose Mr Obama loses the election next year and we find the President of the US is a dippy floozy or a trigger happy Christian Zionist puppet, what do you suspect the next Neocon Zionist adventure might be?
These must be questions that are being asked in many capitals around the world.
Algeria has just had a ten year war where the military put down a popular uprising with 100,000 dead after they declared the results of an election null and void.
I was wondering over the weekend what the situation will be with reagrds to the Western mercenaries operating in Libya, if they cross the frontier into Algeria.
International law covers armed forces, who may engage in hot pursuit.
But mercenaries, even if they are funded by CIA, the French or the British are a different kettle of fish.
The Algerian Government could get very peeved if they find armed men crossing their frontier in search of the Ghadaffis.
They are back. The people who brought you "Iraq, Unexpected Consequences and Financial Disaster" are back with the gripping sequel "All Gas and Gaiters on the Barada"
I wrote to you way back in 2004 when this story was doing the rounds with stories of tests being carried out in Sudan. I think it got filed next to the Kuwaiti Incubators file.
Naturally, poor helpless potential victims are concerned.
Next thing you know it will pop up in Governor Perrys campaign, supported by all the congressmen who have had freebies to Tel Aviv this summer.
Anthony Cordesman thinks Syria is a no no. From Time Magazines reprint og Josh Landis piece "Anthony Cordesman of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies has articulated a “don’t get involved” argument."
There are still a few sane people left in the US.
Admiral Mullen retires at the end of next month. I wonder what General Dempsey thinks of this landing on his plate.
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Dear Professor Cole
I protest. As a disenfranchised citizen of the Rest of World I find it appalling that this canddate for US President should behave like a bull in a china shop. Everything that is reported in this article undermines everything that is being done to avoid the Palestine issue breaking out into open fighting
He might as well have advocated the building of the Third Temple while he was at it.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/middleeast/la-na-romney-israel-20120730,0,6152337.story
Romney takes hard line on Iran in Israel speech
The Republican challenger to Obama also refers to Jerusalem as the Israeli capital and visits the Western Wall.
Romney, his wife, Ann, and son Josh spent the evening at the home of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who invited the Romneys to join him in breaking the traditional fast of Tisha B'Av, a Jewish observance that commemorates the destruction of the first and second Jewish temples of Jerusalem.
Carl Lewis got it right when he said 'Seriously, some Americans just shouldn't leave the country,'
Dear Prosessor Cole
A far more subtle point that may have escaped people's attention.
http://www.todayonline.com/World/EDC120729-0000034/US-considers-Israel-to-be-Middle-Easts-biggest-spy-threat
"The CIA considers Israel its No 1 counterintelligence threat in the agency's Near East Division, the group that oversees spying across the Middle East, according to current and former officials. Counterintelligence is the art of protecting national secrets from spies. This means the CIA believes that US national secrets are safer from other Middle Eastern governments than from Israel."
Having outed MI6 in London as part of what is being referred to on Twitter as the Romneyshambles, I wonder what other cats he will let out of the bag in Israel.
Dear Professor Cole
Mr Romney couldn't remember the name of the guy he was meeting, even though Ed Milliband is leader of the opposition.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-19000272
A spectacular waffle, worthy of Sarah Palin.
Isn't difficulty remebering names the first sign of the onset of senile dementia? If the candidate is going gaga we need to inspect the choice for Veep carefully.
Dear Professor Cole
Where do you suspect Romney would appoint her to be Ambassador to?
Isn't that what happens to failed candidates?
With John Bolton at State Department she would be a shoo in.
Dear Professor Cole
BBC news at 1pm uk time reports that Damascus is being Systematically cleared of rebels. The Tet model seems to hold up, and it is clear that a competent military mind is running the show
A holding action in Halab (Aleppo) will allow it to be cleared later in the week.
Smaller forces will be required to open the roads for truck traffic.
Dear Professor Cole
There is an old saying in the military that everyone wants to be a strategist but real men want to do logistics. That is, “The aspect of military operations that deals with the procurement, distribution, maintenance, and replacement of materiel and personnel.” Border crossings are pivotal to this sector of war-making
Correct.
The counter to this is now ambushes of the trucks carrying reinforcements and ammunition for the rebels.
The rebel supply lines are still too long.
Dear Professor Cole
What exquisite taste you have
I lived in Duesseldorf where Klee taught, and the Kunst Sammlung Nordrhein Westfalen has many of his works, including his North African period.
Dear Professor Cole
Is there an interpetation of this profound sentiment?
Is it an epitaph for the caliphate?
Updated, Super390
I agree with you.
I counselled some of my friends to look at the Tet offensive in Vietnam in 1968, to see the similarities with Damascus today.
The VC committed 70,000 men in that action of which they lost 37,000 so militarily the US won.
What the US lost was the battle of the narrative.
In Damascus I don’t understand the rebel logistics. I don’t understand how and where they have stockpiled their ammunition, and how resupply is to take place along long supply lines from Lebanon.
I expect that, as in Homs, the rebels will run out of ammunition and will have to either hide or run for it to Jordan or Lebanon.
There is always the possibility that some of the rebel groups have been suckered into making suicidal attacks on the regime stronghold, by their political opponents, to remove them from the scene.
Let us beware of press reports of imminent collapse of the regime in Damascus until we see proof.
Dear Professor Cole
Actually if I were a Syrian General I would be pleased that the rebels have gone off at half cock and engaged in Damascus where they can be destroyed piecemeal.
I wonder if this is in fact a sign of deperation on the part of the rebels. Apparently their support has been cut off for the rest of the year.
"US refuses to help Syrian rebels until after election
Barack Obama’s US government has warned its western allies and Syria’s opposition groups that it can do nothing to intervene in the country’s crisis until after November’s presidential election, The Daily Telegraph has learned. "
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/9404452/US-refuses-to-help-Syrian-rebels-until-after-election.html
"Syrian lobby groups in Washington, who only a few weeks ago were expressing hope that the Obama administration might give a green light to the supply of anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, said they had now been forced to “take a reality pill” by the US government.
The Telegraph understands that the Syrian Support Group (SSG), the political wing of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), recently presented American officials with a document requesting 1,000 RPG-29 anti-tank missiles, 500 SAM-7 rockets, 750 23mm machine guns as well as body armour and secure satellite phones. They also asked for $6m to pay rebel fighters as they battle the regime. All their requests were rejected. "
Dear Professor Cole
On behalf of the disenfranchised suppliers of Auxilliary Troops and consumer markets in Rest of World may I express my thanks for publishing this.
What would have made it perfect would have been the Iron Triangle if you had added in a picture of John Bolton and his moustache as Secretary of State.
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/07/12/the_romney_cheney_doctrine
O'12
Dear Professor Cole
I wonder if you are missing the point. Libya may be more or less pacified, but in a similar way Bohemia after the Battle of White Mountain the displaced losers are destabilising the surrounding area.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_White_Mountain
With the Bohemian army destroyed, Tilly entered Prague and the revolt collapsed. King Frederick with his wife Elizabeth fled the country (hence his nickname the Winter King), and many citizens welcomed the restoration of Catholicism. Forty-seven noble leaders of the insurrection were tried, and twenty-seven were executed on what is called "the Day of Blood" by Protestants at Prague's Old Town Square. Amongst those executed were Kryštof Harant and Jan Jesenius. Today, 27 crosses have been inlaid in the cobblestone as a tribute to those victims. An estimated five-sixths of the Bohemian nobility went into exile soon after the Battle of White Mountain, and their properties were confiscated.[8] Before the war about 151,000 farmsteads existed in the Lands of Bohemian Crown, while only 50,000 remained after the year 1648. The number of inhabitants decreased from 3 million to 800,000.[9] The Thirty Years War had still another 28 years to run, and Bohemia was often the scene of much bloodshed.
But there was still a strong Protestant army in Silesia under the command of Johann Georg of Hohenzollern, Duke of Brandenburg-Jägerndorf which continued fighting the Imperial army in Moravia and in what today is Slovakia until 1623.
In 1621, the Emperor ordered all Calvinists and other non-Lutherans to leave the realm in 3 days or to convert to Catholicism. Next year, he also ordered all Lutherans (who primarily had not been involved in the revolt) to convert or leave the country. By 1627, Archbishop Harrach of Prague and Jaroslav Borzita of Martinice set out to peacefully convert the heretics as they were termed; most Bohemians converted, but a significant Protestant minority remained. Spanish troops, seeking to encircle their rebellious Dutch provinces, seized the Palatinate electoral lands. With the prospect of Protestantism being overrun in Germany, Denmark entered the struggle. Sweden was to join the Protestant forces in 1630.
Africom may yet rue the day they won their first victory, and sowed dragons teeth.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-18728950
Dear Professor Cole
I trust you have redcued all this electronic archive to a paper or microfiche form that will survive for hundreds of years.
I am just a little dubious about the survival of Historical Primary sources that exist only in electronic form.
Where will you find a DVD reader in three hundred years time?
Dear Professor Cole
"If Americans have anything to fear, it is Romney’s foreign policy team."
Didn't Professor Rice learn that she isn't good at government last time?
http://www.infowars.com/condi-returns-calls-for-violent-overthrow-of-syria/
Dear Professor Cole
"If Americans have anything to fear, it is Romney’s foreign policy team."
It is we the disenfranchised providers of the Auxillary troops who are scared witless by the prospect of Romney's foreign policy team.
The head of MI5 has just told us of the wave of British Jihadis heading off to Yemen and Somalia and Libya to learn the practical skills. These have caused the need for Rapier batteries on tower blocks in London to protect the Olympics. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-18590209
The next time the US blunders into a mistake, it is to be hoped we won't follow.
Dear Professor Cole
It seems that the storm in a teacup is rapidly dying down..
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jun/26/turkey-threatens-syria-retaliation
"However, the Nato secretary general, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, made it clear that the alliance was not considering a collective armed response. Following an emergency meeting in Brussels called by Turkey to discuss the downing of the Phantom F-4 aircraft, Rasmussen said the allies "expressed strong condemnation of this completely unacceptable act" but said the possibility of invoking article five of the North Atlantic Treaty, under which all allies intervene to defend against any attack on any member state, had not been discussed.
"We stand together with Turkey in spirit of solidarity," Rasmussen said. But when asked how Nato would respond if there was another such incident, the Nato secretary-general said only that the allies would once again "consult", while remaining "seized of the situation". He said he did not think there would be a repeat of the incident.
Turkey said its jet had unintentionally strayed into Syrian airspace while on patrol but had been shot down over international waters.
Turkish political observers say that the rare formal consultation with Nato allies (under article four, which has only been invoked once before, by Turkey in 2003) and Erdoğan's heated rhetoric is designed for domestic public consumption, to compensate for the absence of any direct retaliation."
Dear Professor Cole
"I don’t think either Turkey or other NATO members will be at all happy to be drawn into military action in Syria. (Nor do I think that would be a good idea)."
I am glad you said that. For a moment I wondered if you approved of this nonsensical escalation. Dinging a recon aircraft that has been infringing your airspace while mapping your radar is cause for a diplomatic note, not for invoking article 5.
We had rules of engagement in Germany precisely to avoid a small incident where a patrol or an aircraft got lost, escalating to World War III.
An armoured divison that crosses your frontier triggers Article 5.
You will recall that Turkey did not invoke Article 5 in response to the act of Piracy on the High Seas by the Israelis against their shipping a few years ago.
Can we reputable and level headed commentators perhaps serve a greater good by maintaining a rational aproach to the problem
Dear Professor Cole
I should refer Fox to a book called "the Bible". It has a bit in it called Exodus.
It describes the journey from Sharia al Abid in Giza to places like Jericho and suchlike.
It might eventually dawn on Fox that they have got their rivers mixed up, and that the Egyptians live near the Nile whereas Jerusalem is quite near the Jordan.
Of course this an understandable mistake. There was a Mister Cheney who got the Tigris and Euphrates mixed up with the Jordan a few years ago. He was looking in the wrong bit of the Bible called Kings.
Dear Professor Cole
What a convincing argument for the establishment of the Middle Eastern WMD Free zone! This lady's reading list is a good place to start for those who don't know how to build one. http://www.chathamhouse.org/about-us/directory/182053
And of course with spectacular timing, the electoral commission announces they can't make up their minds.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-18528121
There will be some interesting sermons at the mosques this morning.
Dear Professor Cole
It seems that the Egyptian guys have "provocation" down to a fine art.
They seem to do everything on Thursdays.
Everyone can go to the Mosque on Friday and get aerated about the day before's news.
This organsiational genius must be a legacy of British training.
Dear Professor Cole
The more I read, the more I understand the Tanzimat, and Attaturk's reforms in Turkey.
As the major problem in Egypt is capital creation and the provision of jobs I do wonder how either of these problems would be addressed by a goverment of Soldiers and the Mosque.
Ahmed Nazif when he was Prime Minister drew on his colleagues from Cairo University to fill ministerial ranks with technocrats.
I wonder how a credible government can be formed that can put together an Economic Development plan that has enough credibility to release funds from IMF and other funding bodies?
I wonder who will be responsible for corruption, either in stamping down on it or in managing and directing it. We still await clarification of what happened to Mubarak's Billion Euros, and whether Susanne will be a Merry Widow.
I am most intrigued to understand how Islam in Turkey generated an economic revival, whereas in Egypt, Syria and other places it is seen as a return to the Dark Ages, a most misleading term that, while applicable to Europe, was in fact a period of flowering of civilisation in North Africa and the area currently described as the Middle East.
Dear Professor Cole
This platform from Mr Morsi sounds reasonable.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/jun/14/as-egyptian-president-serve-revolution
Implementing it will be an uphill battle. Do you suspect it is deliverable or simply Kerensky like good intentions?
FOR INFO
You are quoted by Guradian Live blog at 09.22
FOR INFO
Dear Professor Cole
I do find your opinion that Egypt will follow the Turkish model rather than the Algerian one most reassuring.
Today is however Friday so we will need to see what the message from the Imams is.
I do rather think that the blatant chicanery by the Judiciary will generate a reaction of "You can't win" among the young, the Left and the Islamists, and drive them to take up arms.
An interesting question will be whether Morsi, if he wins, can purge the Judiciary.
I did hear an interesting story (unconfirmed) that the Army has been building large volume prison camps in the desert.
One wonders how much money is left in the Treasury.
Dear Professor Cole
New York Times in an editorial points out hte danger of the second round of elections in Egypt next week becoming a train wreck.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/08/opinion/egypt-struggles-toward-a-president.html?_r=1&ref=global-home
The article already casts doubt on the validity of the result and a low turnout will undermine the legitimacy of whoever gets elected.
I do hope you will be in Cairo, Alex, Luxor and Upper Egypt to interpret the outcome for us. You seem to have mastered the "Absence of Body, is better than Presence of Mind" principle and know when to catch the last plane out before the shooting starts.
An "Algerian" solution would be a disaster.
Dear Professor Cole
Peter Oborne of the Telegraph made a TV program of his visit which was shown on Channel 4 last week.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/9265441/Libya-still-ruled-by-the-gun.html
He must have been in a different Libya.
Reports that all mobile networks off air in Damascus, 11.00 uk time
Bill H
If the guy was one of the clique surounding Mubarak and sharing the proceeds it would be sensible to eliminate him, if you are trying to make a clean break.
It seems people are a little peeved that Mubarak's codefendants got off.
One starts to understand the cynicsm of Alaa al Aswany in the "Yacoubian Building" and we will see this reflected on the streets in the coming weeks as people's frustration shows.
"The stories of each of the primary characters are often intertwined, at times colliding or converging with one another. Together, they give a biting condemnation of a nation that has squandered its promise and which has been forced to compromise its own principles, resulting in a corrupt and undemocratic political system dominated by a single party (the fictitious "Patriotic Party", a thinly-veiled version of Egypt's National Democratic Party), a society whose most talented members abandon the country for promising careers abroad, and an increasingly disenchanted and restive populace that has no loyalty to the government and which sees extremist Islam as one of the few viable options to counter growing poverty, economic stagnation, and a perceived degradation of morals and lack of social cohesion. "
Breaking News is saying Mubarak got Life. No news of Suzanne or Gamal or the Money!
Dear Professor Cole
I note that Jerusalem Post and Daily Telegraph are making waves about Syrian Chemical Weapons.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/9300947/Syria-West-may-be-forced-to-seize-Bashar-al-Assads-toxic-gas-stockpile.html
Chemical Weapons are notoriously difficult to use effectively, particularly if you don't have effective delivery sytems. There is a great danger of blowback hitting your own forces.
Syrian Chemical weapons is a story that resurfaces every couple of years since 2004.
Great care should taken to avoid subscribing to press hysteria.
Dear Professor Cole
Bill Clinton in his marvellous Dimbleby Lecture intoduced me to Hernan de Soto's book "The mystery of Capital" http://www.amazon.com/The-Mystery-Capital-Capitalism-Everywhere/dp/0465016146
De Soto, a famous Peruvian Economist described how a working Land Registry is an essential facet of a modern state.
As you describe the modern equivalent of the Scottish Clearances where sheep were judged more profitable than crofters, under the Hannover Kings, the tragedy of Capitalism becomes apparent. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highland_Clearances
Dear Professor Cole
I wonder if you mind if I take issue with your piece. I am inclined to sit on the fence for a week and then await rational decision making when the emotion has drained out of the situation.
Alastair Crooke warns against basing policy on "Advocacy Reporting."
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NC09Ak03.html
"What has become so striking is that, whilst this "information warfare" may have been almost irreversibly effective in demonizing President Assad in the West, it has also had the effect of "unanchoring" European and American foreign policy. It has become cast adrift from any real geo-strategic mooring. This has led to a situation in which European policy has become wholly suggestible to such "advocacy reporting", and the need to respond to it, moment-by- moment, in emotive, moralistic blasts of sound-bites accusing President Assad of having "blood on its hands". "
I am actually impressed with the British Foreign Office (FCO) position and with General Dempsey's caution.
FCO are being quite careful NOT to declare a civil war while Annan still needs to report back to UNSC. We also need to hear General Mood's report on the massacre.
I am haunted by the spectre of the atrocities of the Spanish Civil War, and the half million dead and displaced and so am inclined to see what can be done to avoid a similar occurrence in Syria and the surrounding countries. I suspect the outcome of a Syrian Civil War will be the same as the Spanish one. The big battalions win.
The fragmented nature of Islam in Syria and the 10% Christian community means that the situation has the potential to become quite as messy as any seen in Germany during the Thirty Years War, and to spread to draw in regional powers. We saw the casualty toll in Armenia resulting from a Turkish administrative decision in 1915.
At this point my main concern is how to help extract my friends from the country, and how to help support those who are unable to leave. I don't want to hear of friends starving in small towns in Syria or massacred in their beds over some obscure doctrinal issue.
So, having avoided getting killed in the doomed Operation Armageddon in Ireland forty years ago, can I suggest we cool it, take a deep breath, and wait to see if the Russians can calm things down.
Dear Professor Cole
Al Jazeera reports the start of the shenannigans.
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/05/201252613122175999.html
"We will present an appeal on behalf of candidate Hamdeen Sabahi ... to the presidential electoral committee, citing a series of irregularities ... that have affected the outcome of the first round," lawyer Essam El-Islamboly told the Reuters news agency.
Islamboly said the appeal, to be lodged on Sunday or Monday at the latest, would ask the electoral committee to suspend the election until the prosecutor-general checks a claim by a police officer that the Interior Ministry had illegally assigned 900,000 votes to Shafiq.
He said Sabahi also wanted the election halted until the constitutional court rules on the validity of an April decision
by the electoral committee to disqualify Shafiq.
The committee swiftly lifted its ban on Shafiq, but referred a new law barring top Mubarak-era officials from the race to the constitutional court."
The fat would seem to be in the fire, and the credibility of the elections to be in doubt. Are we surprised??
Dear Professor Cole
A conversation with some Egyptian Christians at a trade fair in Germany last year revealed their degree of concern at events in Egypt.
Given that thye are said to have voted largely for the fulul Shafiq is there a danger of an outbreak of religous strife between the Xtians and the Muslims if Shafiq wins.
This seems to a regular occurrence in Cairo and Alexandria.
If the Xtians are seen to have handed the baton to the blowback Shafiq will the Left and the MB gang up on them?
What might the effect of this dislocation be on the Egyptian economy?
A high point of my first visit to Cairo was to be led through the police lines between the Copts and the Muslims to go and see the Coptic Churches and the Synagogue in southern Cairo.
Dear Professor Cole
Most Newspapers seem to say that the run off will be between Morsi and Shafiq and that this is a nightmare scenario.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/islamist-candidate-likely-to-face-runoff-in-egyptian-presidential-vote/2012/05/25/gJQAiEKRpU_story.html?hpid=z3
A victory for either of them looks like a recipe for civil disturbance on a large scale.
Are we likely to see a rerun of the Syria and Libya scenario with arms being smuggled to insurgents to fight the Army? 10,000 missing MANPADS is a rather nasty factor in the region. Still, if the Wahabis leave Syria and go to Egypt this may be a benefit.
Will further disturbances impede the delivery of an IMF loan to bale out the economy if disturbances continue to kill the tourist trade?
How are food supplies holding up?
Nasty business this democracy and plebiscite exercise.
Dear Professor Cole
We already discount many sources such as Fox News and Wall Street Journal. Much discussion exists on Facebook regarding the distortions in the Main Stream Media regarding Syria over the past year.
http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/questioning-syrian-%E2%80%9Ccasualty-list%E2%80%9D
What this is doing is pushing us to using secondary sources as our primary source of news. This makes us vulnerable to a possible lack of journalistic ethics and editorial control at these secondary sources.
Formalising the broadcast of Newspeak to the US as well as the rest of us will inevitably lead to lots of us doing time in reeducation camps modeled on Guantanamo.
Dear Professor Cole
The Financial Times adds to Secretary of State's woes. Iran is now trading oil with China in Renminbi. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/63132838-732d-11e1-9014-00144feab49a.html#axzz1uGMDh4YD
The report states that much of the trade is being financed through Russian banks which take large comissions. Not much hope of separating the Russians and Chinese on Iran and Syria then.
No need to apologise for the Daily Mail piece. At least it wasn't "The Sun". We are all, quite obviously, just as interested in Hilary's Blazer and Sunglasses as in the geopolitics of the emergence of a new reserve currency. The photographs of celebs in their bikinis is just icing on the cake.
Just in case people want to wash the 'eye candy' out of their eyes, here is a link to a paper on the economics of establsshing a new reserve currency. http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/109263
Eminence
Unfortunately your link to Privaye Eye only takes me to a front page and not to a list of people who might never have taken out injunctions that stop me finding out if they ever took out injunctions
Mssrs Sue, Grabbitt, and Runne must have employed hackers
Dear Professor Cole
Referring to both the above piece and the piece on CISPA, You might find this example of Blowback mentioned in Haaretz of interest
http://www.haaretz.com/blogs/focus-u-s-a/u-s-congress-voices-concern-over-iran-cyber-threat-1.426913
"Stuxnet may be proof of Iran's vulnerability and the effectiveness of other nation-states' cyber-arsenals. However, it would also be possible for Iran to gain some knowledge for creating a Stuxnet-like virus from analyzing its effects," Rep. Yvette Clarke (D) of New York said at the hearing of the Counterterrorism and Intelligence Subcommittee and the Cyber-security, Infrastructure Protection and Security Technologies Subcommittee, titled "Iranian Cyber Threat to the U.S. Homeland."
It is instructive to compare the reporting of a shift in US Nuclear policy vis a vis Iran from LAT Times with Haaretz
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-iran-nuclear-20120428,0,353079.story
vs
Breaking News
Saturday, April 28, 2012
09:01
U.S. to agree to 5% uranium enrichment plan for Iranian nuclear program (Army Radio)
Dear Professor Cole
and of course the inevitable petition in support of CBS.
http://thankyou60minutes.org/
Dear Professor Cole
The content of this piece is unremarkable.
The plaform it is published in is, however, interesting.
http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Columnists/Article.aspx?id=267434
If you can’t change American public opinion, you will never change American foreign policy. And until America steps aside from protecting Israel from criticism, as Simon’s CBS report actually accomplishes in a very subtle way, then the conflict will never end. There will never be peace in Israel. And Palestine will never exist as a state.
In the end, and from watching the report several times, it sure looked to me like CBS pulled its punches to soften the criticism and leave the question of the fate of Christians up in the air.
All because of Oren’s complaint.
After all, who wants to be accused by Israel of being anti-Semitic?
Dear Professor Cole
"If Iran has drones, how long will it be before Hizbullah, the Shiite party of south Lebanon, has them and uses them over Israel? "
Probably quite a time.
The aircraft itself is only the platform. The drone seems to be designed for substantial lift and not high speed.
It is therefore vulnerable to conventional fighter aircraft and a decent radar system.
The drone captured was only a reconaissance drone so to use it as an offensive weapon there is also a requirement for missiles to be added, requiring further delivery of identifiable weapons systems.
To make sucessful use of drones there is a requirement for a satellite system to pass the signals and for very substantial encryption and error correction to compensate for the low signal strength.
Finally there is also a requirement for a ground station to fly the things from. This ground station will be easily identifiable to aerial reconaissance due to the emitted radiation on the satellite uplink which will make it vulnerable to an Anti Radiation Missile. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AGM-88_HARM
Ground stations are also vulnerable to commando or special forces raids, which is why much US drone activity is flown from Virginia.
This last obstacle can of course be overcome by basing the ground station in another country
Dear Professor Cole
Your readers may be interested in an apparent shift of position coming from Tel Aviv.
http://intelnews.org/2012/04/18/01-972/
The hair trigger nature of the situation seems to be highlighted by this.
The experienced Israeli intelligence correspondent Ronen Bergman argues that the decision to attack Iran militarily “will be driven to an extraordinary extent by intelligence reports” produced by Washington and Tel Aviv. For this reason, he argues, “even a slight intelligence gaffe could have an outcome of historic proportions”. Furthermore, he calls on America and Israel not to rely on “scraps of information [...] as the basis for action against Iran”, insisting that “a miscalculation could be the worst possible outcome”.
Omen
Actually I do have experience of the problem from Northern Ireland in 1969 whose situation was similar to the Syrian one. I was working in an Irish Refugee camp and busloads of women and children were coming in from Belfast having been burnt out of their homes and fired on by the police.
We narrowly avoided armed intervention in Operation Armageddon, with the lead elements of the Irish Army stopped two miles short of the border by a police superintendant.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exercise_Armageddon
The plot to ship weapons by various ministers was uncovered and stopped. If both sides had been armed to the extent envisioned there would have been a bloodbath.
It is only when you see Belfast and Derry and then see Kosovo and Iraq that you realise what a mistake allowing an armed uprising to take place might be. The breakthrough moment probably came when the British Army realised they could never achieve a military victory.
You might like this from BBC World Service. Barbara Plett sounds very well informed and I thought she deserves a prize for such a clear explanation of the powderkeg situation in Syria. You can download the MP3. http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00q87x7
Patrick Seale's piece summarises the situation regarding arming the rebels nicely.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/apr/13/kofi-annan-negotiation-key-syria
" This week saw the surprise visit to the Free Syrian Army – the main, Turkish-based rebel force – of US senators Joe Lieberman and John McCain. "This is war," they declared with their familiar belligerence. "Diplomacy with Assad has failed!" They called for arming the rebels and for foreign air power to defeat the Syrian army."
"But Annan is right in declaring that "any further militarisation of the conflict would be disastrous". Even armed with weapons from outside, the opposition could not hope to reverse the balance of military power, still overwhelmingly on the side of the regime. To think otherwise is political insanity. The more the opposition resorts to arms, the more the regime will feel justified in crushing it."
Dear Professor Cole
After One day of a ceasefire in Syria it might be helpful to allow it a chance to work. Yes there are lots of dead, in distressing circumstances, but there will be lots more dead and atrocities if things are allowed to spin out of control into a regional civil war.
As the Guardian says Annan's plan is the only game left in town.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/apr/12/syria-annan-plan-nato
But it would be a fatal mistake to dismiss the Annan plan prematurely and argue that because Syria is already burning out of control, a Nato intervention could not precipitate a wider conflict. It could, and it would. Despite the tough words since Monday, when Syrian shelling killed two people in a Turkish refugee camp near the border, Turkey is supremely reluctant to create a humanitarian corridor inside Syria, mindful of what happened with the Kurds the last time this was tried. A regional war on its Syrian border is the last thing Ankara wants or needs. Prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's invocation of Nato's responsibilities under the article 5 mutual aid clause to protect the Turkish border was another expression of how reluctant his country would be to act alone. Add to that brew a fractured opposition, armed rebel groups nowhere near big enough to challenge loyalist forces, the slow rate of defections and the opportunity that jihadis in western Iraq would have to make mayhem just over their border; include Hizbollah and Iran in this mix and the civil war taking place now would be as nothing to the bloodshed that would result from any foreign intervention.
Stephen Walt captures the essential point in his piece
http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/04/11/what_to_do_about_syria
"And as Bali and Rana emphasize, even well-intentioned humanitarian intervention can have the unintended consequence of putting more Syrian lives at risk. Thus, for both strategic and moral reasons, the international community should concentrate on stopping what is now a slowly escalating civil war, instead of trying to escalate it. This may not be a morally heroic stance, but it is realistic."
How we or you explain to your readers, without sounding like heartless ogres, that sometimes inaction on individual issues may support the achievement of a larger objective is a difficult but worthwhile question.
Dear Professor Cole
There is pushback going on in the UK against similar proposals.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/government-retreats-on-digital-big-brother-plan-7615542.html
You and your children will however be under surveillance for signs of subversive gaming.
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/04/02/spy_games
God only knows what they will make of the profiles of your commenters.
Have you been hacked? Final paragraph
"and in turn he is afraid that Sunnis in Baalbak will hand seen things smoothly with regard for there support of the people of Montagn and elsewer."
Dear Professor Cole
I suspect you (or Jazeera) leaves out the more subtle fallout danger.
Josh Landis in his recent Blogginheads inyterview mentions that the Syrian Kurds are showing signs of wanting to join Iraqi Kurdistan.
http://bloggingheads.tv/videos/9330?in=00%3A00&out=48%3A59
The Kurds in fact walked out of the opposition conference in Turkey.
In the past I have made reference to the unresolved issue in Iraq of the Battle of Kirkuk that remains to be fought. The city of Mosul may also be dragged into the conflict over the boundary of this autonomous region and its right to conclude contracts with Oil Companies independent of the Iraqi government.
Allowing anything to go Bang in the Mosul area is fraught with danger given the reports of instability in the Shambarakat Dam on the Tigris.
The exisitence of Israeli bases in Kurdistan has been reported for many years and has recently been highlighted as a jumping off point for Israeli entry into Iran.
Secession by the Syrian Kurds would extend the Kurdistan Turkish border and extend the area of concern to the Turkish Army.
Just as the fallout from the Libyan intervention has had knock on effects in Mali and is destabilising Central Africa so the Syrian situation if it is not contained and pacified will bring the region clattering down around everyone's ears.
Dear Professor Cole
The Syrian Chemical Weaposns story was out doing the rounds a couple of weeks ago.
Are these indicators of an oncoming propaganda surge?
Watch out for the dodgy dossier and the Iranian submarines in the Hudson river.
Further on the correct usage of words
gen·o·cide
noun
the deliberate and systematic extermination of a national, racial, political, or cultural group.
re·press
2. To put down by force, usually before total control has been lost; quell: repress a rebellion.
Sovereign governments have the right to supress rebellions stoked by deserters and mutineers. French cries of dismay must of course take into account the methodology of General Bigeard. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/obituaries/military-obituaries/army-obituaries/7841910/General-Marcel-Bigeard.html
Pompey, Crassus and Abraham Lincoln would understand.
Attempts at or aspirations of secession from the United States have been a feature of the country's politics since its birth. Some have argued for a constitutional right of secession and others for a natural right of revolution. The United States Supreme Court ruled unilateral secession unconstitutional while commenting that revolution or consent of the states could lead to a successful secession.
The one serious secession movement was defeated in the American Civil War. In 1860-1861, eleven of the fifteen southern states where slavery was legal declared their secession from the United States and joined together as the Confederate States of America. It collapsed in 1865 after losing the war with the northern states.
Dear Professor Cole
You omit the breakdown of relations between Israel and Russia and China.
This recent commentary by Bhadrakumar on the nascent relationship between Israel China shows who is moving to a position of calling the shots in the Middle East.
http://www.atimes.com//atimes/china/nb02ad01.html
Doubtless the Pentagon is now feeling edgy about sharing military technology with Israel that will inevitably find its way to China.
Treason: Violation of allegiance toward one's country or sovereign, especially the betrayal of one's country by waging war against it or by consciously and purposely acting to aid its enemies.
Sedition: Conduct or language inciting rebellion against the authority of a state.
Dear Professor Cole
One should look out for the continued misuse of words in the Middle East.
A defector is one who has defected i.e. To disown allegiance to one's country and take up residence in another: a Soviet citizen who defected to Israel.
A deserter is one who has deserted i.e. To abandon (a military post, for example) in violation of orders or an oath.
v.intr.
To forsake one's duty or post, especially to be absent without leave from the armed forces with no intention of returning.
A settler is defined as: a person who settles in a new country or a colony
A squatter is defined as: An individual who settles on the land of another person without any legal authority to do so, or without acquiring a legal title.
In the past, the term squatter specifically applied to an individual who settled on public land. Currently it is used interchangeably with intruder and trespasser.
ROMNEY: I think he threw Israel under the bus with regards to defining the ’67 borders as a starting point of negotiations. I think he disrespected Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Er which one is President of the largest economy on earth and the leading military power in the world, and which one is the prime minster of a client state of less than 8 million inhabitants, dependent on the goodwill of the superpower for money, arms and protection.
As Bill Clinton said on Bibii: ~"Who the F does he think he is? -Who's the Effing superpower here"?
Dear Dear
Books are so passe. It is the 21st century young man. You have television to tell you about reality.
Dear Professor Cole.
"And please remember who favored these Orwellian laws and vote them out in November."
Uh Lets keep Obama. The alternatives are worse.
Dear Professor Cole
Just as I was thinking to myself how much I envy your students the opportunity to attend your lectures, and wondered how many of the lectures are online, we hit the problem with the video medium.
You mentioned Miroslav Hroch and others work on the nationalist movements of the 19th century. Given the similarities between the Arab Spring and the movements of 1848 in Europe this is a relevant remark.
Video doesn't provide a References section.
I learn by picking up on references to things I don't know about and following them. Miroslav Who?
Dear Professor Cole
Thank you for this enlightening desciption of the problems facing the Republican Party.
It will be particularly valuable for the chaps in Tel Aviv and Al Quds who wish to meddle with the US presidential election so as to get a candidate elected who will subscribe to their Apocalyptic plans for the Middle East.
Even if they do not suceed in conning the US voters into electing any of the three flawed characters you describe, they will wish to leave Obama stalemated by an intrangient congress and unable to implement either domestic or foreign policy.
Let us look forward to an intractable manufactured crisis in the Middle East in the Summer of 2012, that puts Obama in the same situation electorally as James E Carter, who was whipped and beaten daily by the press for failing to recover his diplomats from Teheran, leaving their release to the economically illiterate Ronald Reagan.
Forewarned is forearmed, but, as the Greeks tell us, Cassandra (or any of their own economists) is not listened to.
Dear Professor Cole
There seems to be a disturbing wave of assasination and insurrection attempts across an arc that runs from Lebanon to Isfahan and Baluchistan.
One wonders idly if it is being centrally coordinated and if so where and by whom?
Dear Professor Cole
I can see a billhook (that might be a sickle) and a hand and a rifle in the Logo
Try as I might, I seem to be suffering from Hammer Blindness and can't see one.
Dear Professor Cole
No sooner did I finish writing about literacy in Egypt, than Nick Kristof pops up with an interview with a literate lady member of the Muslim Brotherhood.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/08/opinion/kristof-joining-a-dinner-in-a-muslim-brotherhood-home.html?smid=fb-share
Nick tells it as he sees it and I learn quite a bit from his articles.
Dear Professor Cole
Your point about reading newspapers is well made. I was surprised (mea culpa) when Tom Friedman mentioned this morning Egypt's illiteracy rate of 30%. Despite having spent a lot of time there I had overlooked this point.
I was so surprised that I went to CIA worldfactbook to check and found that the statistics are even worse with male literacy at 83% and female literacy at 59%.
Syria in contrast has 86% male literacy and 73.6% female literacy, despite all its handicaps.
It surely must be one of the most telling comments on the Mubarak regime that despite the vast sums of foreign aid supplied by the Americans since Sadat went to Jerusalem that a third of the country lacks elementary schooling.
I now understand why I was seeing elementary Arabic classes being run at Al Ahzar in Al Cahairo. It wasn't just Arabic that was being taught but also basic literacy.
Dear Professor Cole
Thank you so much for this reasoned, rational and factual analysis of the results of the first stage of the Egyptian Elections. It is this kind of objective insight that makes me read your column.
I have to compare it with the views of the seriously deranged Caroline Glick in Jerusalem Post.
http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Columnists/Article.aspx?id=248256
I read the womans comments every now and again to see what the world might looklike from the Loony Right.
The propaganda is argued in a defective manner, and reaches a conclusion that flies in the face of reality. Given the amount of weapons and budget support supplied by the US, how anyone can complain that the US is no longer Israels ally is beyond me.
The usual warnings of prospective pogroms are trotted out.
"With vote tallies in for Egypt’s first round of parliamentary elections in it is abundantly clear that Egypt is on the fast track to becoming a totalitarian Islamic state. The first round of voting took place in Egypt’s most liberal, cosmopolitan cities. And still the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafists received more than 60 percent of the vote. Run-off elections for 52 seats will by all estimates increase their representation.
And then in the months to come, Egyptian voters in the far more Islamist Nile Delta and Sinai will undoubtedly provide the forces of jihadist Islam with an even greater margin of victory."
.....
"So too, there is little qualitative difference between blaming Israel for its isolation in the face of the Islamist takeover of the Arab world, and blaming the Jews for the rise of anti-Semites to power in places like Russia, Germany and Norway.
In truth, from Israel’s perspective, it really doesn’t make a difference whether these statements and the intellectual climate they represent stem from ideological myopia or from hatred of Jews.
The end result is the same in either case: Under President Obama, the US government has become hostile to Israel’s national rights and strategic imperatives. Under Obama, the US is no longer Israel’s ally."
Joe Nye talks about the use of Soft Power to increase a states influence. The sort of nonsense spouted in the article above actually strengthens the arguments of Clinton and Panetta, and undermines the case for any support for Israeli policies or actions.
It is time for the adults to enter the playground and take the children's toys away before someone gets hurt.
THIS IS A TEST OF THE COMMENTS MECHANISM
Dear Professor Cole
It is perhaps superflous to note that Pual Krugman and Stve Walt have summarised the situation adequately recently. http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/11/10/the_not_so_best_or_brightest
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/05/opinion/send-in-the-clueless.html?_r=1&hp
I agree with your commenter Steve that the place to look for illumination is in the later stages of the history of the Roman Empire, perhaps where the Emperor was chosen by acclaimation of the Praetorians (doubtless funded by the Lobby of the day)
Dear Professor Cole
Steve Walt and Paul Krugman say it all.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/05/opinion/send-in-the-clueless.html?_r=1&hp
http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/11/10/the_not_so_best_or_brightest
We in Europe will now have to worry about the possibility of the Dog catching the Car.
Dear God. The prospect of a yeaf televised nonsense is tiresome
Dear Professor Cole
Excellent article, nice punchline.
It echoes Stephen Walt's piece of 10 November "The not so best or brightest"
http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/11/10/the_not_so_best_or_brightest
I watched Sarah Palin bring out her family during the 2008 election, and wondered how earth it could be any kind of example or role model for anyone growing up in the US. No kind of higher education qualification among them except for the mother. Would any one of them read Walt or Nye or Parana or Cole or Kagan or Rousseau or Putin or Krugman or Hayek, or Friedman or Mearsheimer or Mahan or any of the authors recommended by Foreign Policy's list of 100 top thinkers.
Tom Clancy maybe.
My Chinese friends and colleagues would be astonished at the lack of rigour in the process that produces American leadership and would understand the advantage it gives them in strategy development and negotiation.
David Petraeus has a PhD in international relations and so comes across as someone who understands the subject and is perhaps one of the outstanding US Generals in the mould of Marshall, Eisenhower, Clay, McArthur.
I wonder if the US political process is descending to the state of the later Roman Empire where the Emperor was chosen by acclamation of the Praetorian guard, (with the approval of the Lobby that funded them.)
If it is, we Europeans will be wary of following them to whatever military or economic disaster they rush off to next.
Dear Professor Cole
Quite Right.
Mark Malloch-Brown the former UK Minister and UN Depty Sec General agrees but cautions against UK returning to the Blairite US-Poodle role.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/nov/30/expelling-iran-diplomats-showdown
I remember Nick Burns, the former Deputy Under Secretary of State telling us that he had been the US main man on Iran for many years but had never visted the country. He envied the UKs contacts within and insight into Iran.
It will be interesting to see if the Basji found objective evidence of UK involvement in the Baluchistan insurgency or the assasination program against Iranian Scientists.
So lets wait and see.
Isn't he Field Marshal Tantawi, an army rank?
Hosni Mubarak was an Air Force General.
Air Marshal is a UK rank.
The different branches of the servcie will skew defence spending towards their specialism.
Dear Professor Cole
I suspect it is important not to raise the hopes of Syrians too high, particularly of military intervention. (i agree I have read your previous piece on the inadvisability of intervention. beware of mission creep)
We need to bear in mind the horrible consequences of causing the Marsh Arabs to rise against Saddam Hussein.
Lying awake at night thinking to onseself "Dear God. What have I done?" is not a pleasant experience.
United States also played a role in encouraging the uprisings, which were then controversially not aided by the U.S. forces present on Iraqi soil.
The revolts in the Shia-dominated southern Iraq involved demoralized Iraqi Army troops and the anti-government Shia parties, in particular the Islamic Dawa Party and Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI). Another wave of insurgency broke out shortly afterwards in the Kurdish populated northern Iraq; unlike the spontaneous rebellion in the South, the uprising in the North was organized by two rival Kurdish party-based militias: the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), and some long-term planning had taken place."
"Although they presented a serious threat to the Iraqi Ba'ath Party regime, Saddam managed to suppress the rebellions with massive and indiscriminate force and maintained power. They were ruthlessly crushed by the loyalist forces spearheaded by the Iraqi Republican Guard and the population was successfully terrorized[dubious – discuss]. During the few weeks of unrest tens of thousands of people were killed. Many more died during the following months, while nearly two million Iraqis fled for their lives. In the aftermath, the government intensified the forced relocating of Marsh Arabs and the draining of the Iraqi marshlands, while the Allies established the Iraqi no-fly zones".
Dear Professor Cole
Possibly just going Gaga.
http://www.priorygroup.com/Conditions/Specialist-Services-Conditions/Early-Onset-Dementia.aspx
Oh well bring back Sarah Palin
Dear Professor Cole
Would you care to explain what the Republican objection to Mr Romney is?
I know the rest of the world would fall about laughing at the idea of wondering if the President of the US is wearing "Magic Underpants". My Chinese colleagues were enthralled as I explained this to them.
Is there anything more than simple objection to his underwear?
Dear vProfessor Cole
It looks like the Pentagon shares my misgivings that the Israelis might go rogue and present us all with a "Fait Acompli" or facts on the ground.
Source Haaretz Sat 5 Nov
http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/u-s-military-official-we-are-concerned-israel-will-not-warn-us-before-iran-attack-1.393834
Dear Professor Cole
Of course the US crazies have to get involved too.
http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=244361
This probably disqualifies the man from the presidency on grounds of not understanding International Relations.
Dear Professor Cole
Is the President still in control of the US government? You will recall that people treated Jimmy Carter as a wimp and went around him as described in "Charlie Wilksons War"
Con Coughlin in the Telegraph is a symptom of this insubordination. The recently departed Mr Foxs (The Minister for Defence) boyfriend was in thrall to Israeli funders.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/8867813/Iran-is-on-the-verge-of-getting-the-Bomb.-It-is-time-for-President-Barack-Obama-to-act.html
Is the USAF remaining in Iraq after Xmas? One of the benefits of having there was that they could interdict an Israeli attack and if necessary shoot them down. If they go the direct route will be open.
My analysis suggests that Israelis might not wait for a green light from Washington but might attack first and then ask the rest of us to join in.
It is time to disarm the lunatics in Tel Aviv and institute the Middle Eastern Nuclear Free Zone.
Dear Professor Cole
When visiting Damascus it is important to visit Jussuf al Asmeh square, see his statue and to look up the man's story and understand where he sits in the Syrian psyche.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yusuf_al-'Azma
Outside interference in Syria will generate the same backlash that an attack on Iran will. Triggering wider hostilities on the Lebanese or Gaza front is to be avoided.
I agree with your analysis.
Dear Professor Cole
Isnt this the kind of signal General Elphinstone ignored in late 1841 and 1842?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massacre_of_Elphinstone%27s_Army
The Commanding General will have an interesting problem figuring out a withdrawal route, if the passes to Pakistan arent available. The Salang pass and tunnel might offer a route out, if people can cope with the smirking from the Russian Officers.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8507815.stm
If MANPADs really have reached the opposition in Afghanistan, flying the US and UK troops out might become interesting.
The French and Germans interestingly enough have already started heading for the exits. http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/23/us-france-afghanistan-idUSTRE75M17B20110623
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/29/world/europe/29germany.html
Somehow, I am not sure I would volunteer for the Rearguard.
Dear Professor Cole
Is it a coincidence that an agreement to free Corporal Shalit has been arranged in Gaza?
Victor Kotsev wonders if this might not be a precursor to an attack on Gaza that would have ended Shalits life.
http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MJ13Ak02.html
Nevertheless, the sense of urgency is real. Not only is Egypt falling apart, but Syria seems to be in a state of low-intensity civil war that could ignite the region in the near future. Iran according to some accounts is apparently racing toward a nuclear device. A war could put off the prisoner swap deal for years, and there is a real danger that Shalit might disappear.
Jim Lobe speculates that this Iranian Assasination plot is too good a chance for the crazies to miss, to corner the US into attacking Iran, daft as the idea is.
http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MJ13Ak01.html
I did notice a lot of reminicing about the 1973 war in the Israeli press over the weekend.
If we see a third straw in the wind it might be time to take a hard look at what is really going on.
Dear Professor Cole
To be quite honest I dont really care if the guy is a Christian or a Wiccan, so long as long as he doesnt do much human sacrifice. The polygamy and animal mistreatment can be coped with.
What I do object to is the jerk dusting off George Ws foreign policies and foreign policy people.
Can you get him targeteted by the National Security Council?
Dear Professor Cole
Support from a Nobel prizewinner is always welcome.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/07/opinion/krugman-confronting-the-malefactors.html?_r=1&hp
What can we say about the protests? First things first: The protesters’ indictment of Wall Street as a destructive force, economically and politically, is completely right.
A weary cynicism, a belief that justice will never get served, has taken over much of our political debate — and, yes, I myself have sometimes succumbed. In the process, it has been easy to forget just how outrageous the story of our economic woes really is.
Dear Professor Cole
I get worried when works of fiction carry across into government policy. Tom Clancy in "Rainbow 6" and Gerald Seymour in "A Deniable Death" both advocate assassination by executive agencies.
Three points strike me about the drone assassination program.
1 What level does the assassination program reach down to?
At a million dollars a missile you cant really afford to knock off the ordinary Ahmed and Abdullah so some sort of Cost Benefit Analysis must apply. Does the lower level only qualify for a couple of hit men and an inquest covered by the Official Secrets Act? Using Hellfire missiles against a cottage in Northumbria would not be acceptable.
2 Once Assassination from the (so far) impregnable drone becomes the norm, people will seek a means to retaliate. If you can't hit the drone then US tourists and business people are the obvious targets. One wonders just who has Ghadaffi's SA-24 these days. I take great care to stand outside the field of fire of any attack on the El Al checkin desk at Cairo Airport. (just for the record, I would miss you and your daily reports and homilies if some divot blew you away)
3 Assassinating the leadership of organisations you are fighting against is the French policy in Algeria. As we know General Massu was so successful that when he was finished there was noone left to negotiate with. In the 21st Century such a technique merely generates a new generation of motivated youngsters to carry on the battle.
Dear Professor Cole and Sherm
Graham keeps trying to find a pretext for the next war, dismayed at the prospect of the US slipping into peace. He had tried to get up a war against Iran, but hasn’t had any takers.
http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/france-iran-risks-attack-if-it-continues-to-develop-nuclear-program-1.387192
The French chappies seem to think Sen Graham is about to get his wish. God help us all!
Dear Professor Cole
These ladies look like a danger to anyone (friend , foe or innocent bystander) within 2000 metres.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/sep/24/palestinian-statehood-tension-settlers
Dear Professor Cole
You omit
a) the possibility of the armed squatters on Palestinian land taking the opportunity to get their retaliation in first.
b) The Israeli Right decisding that Obama's obvious weakness offers them the chance to fly a mission to Teheran.
Oh anything to distract us from the real tragedy of the supplicants at the UN.
The thing finally landed in the Pacific somewhere near Canada.
Some unfortunate fish got a terrible fright!
Don
I trust you read Benny Morris piece "Is Israel Over".
http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2011/09/11/first-report.html
If they have lost Benny Morris, then the game is up.
Dear Professor Cole
Your logical and reasoned analysis is quite correct in its predcition that the European states that collude with the US in aiding and abetting the ongoing crimes against humanity and breaches of international law in Palestine, will suffer the consequences.
Taking great care not to fall foul of laws that forbid the glorification of terrorism, I can see the logic that leads to the conclusion that if the legal system is rigged against you, it is time for direct action. Back to the flying lessons then and so forth. Some pretty good scores last time, some might say.
I object to the possibillity that I or my family and friends might be killed or maimed in an proxy attack that avenges some obtuse machinations by a foreign government with anachronistic and regressive policies.
Perhaps it is time that the European nations drew a line under the emotional embarassment about the events of the 1930s and 1940s and dealt (like the Turkish Prime Minister) with the slow burning fuse.
Dear Professor Cole
Good to see you are back on form.
Suppose Mr Obama loses the election next year and we find the President of the US is a dippy floozy or a trigger happy Christian Zionist puppet, what do you suspect the next Neocon Zionist adventure might be?
These must be questions that are being asked in many capitals around the world.
Joe
Anyone with a pickup truck can make himself a small fortune by selling the arms to the dealers.
It is just good old free enterprise. None of this government nonsense about End User Certificates.
Dear Professor Cole
I wonder if there is a link between the looted and empty arms warehouses in Libya and this report of Taleban MANPAD.
http://atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/MI10Df02.html
Bit of a gamechanger if the reports are true.
Ho Hum. Law of unintended consequences again.
Dear Professor Cole
The mention of the QW-18 MANPAD is interesting.
China will have been interested to see what its actual combat performance is. We dont have any reports of helicopters or aircraft lost to ground fire.
So either the MANPAD werent delivered or nobody showed people how to use them.
Fascinating to see that variants are manufactured under licence in Pakistan and that the Iranians have developed their own version.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/QW-1_Vanguard
This could be a nasty surprise for anymore SEAL incursions.
http://www.armyrecognition.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=938
One wonders when MANPAD will be able to reach and kill Drone.
Phil
Perhaps if outsider’s had intervened, then the 1793/94 “Reign of Terror” may have been averted
The Austrian Emperor sent his army to France to rescue his sister Marie Anoinette from the hooligans.
This outside intervention was routed by the French Republic at Valmy in 1792.
Dear Joe
Algeria is not terribly transparent.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armed_Islamic_Group_of_Algeria
Dear Joe
Take a deep breath and count to 100.
Algeria has just had a ten year war where the military put down a popular uprising with 100,000 dead after they declared the results of an election null and void.
Sauce for the Goose is not sauce for the Gander.
Kind regards
Dear Professor Cole
The delightful Claire Spencer is worth reading on Algeria.
http://www.chathamhouse.org/media/comment/view/177887
Obviously if Libya was that easy .......
Dear Professor Cole
I was wondering over the weekend what the situation will be with reagrds to the Western mercenaries operating in Libya, if they cross the frontier into Algeria.
International law covers armed forces, who may engage in hot pursuit.
But mercenaries, even if they are funded by CIA, the French or the British are a different kettle of fish.
The Algerian Government could get very peeved if they find armed men crossing their frontier in search of the Ghadaffis.
Dear Professor Cole
They are back. The people who brought you "Iraq, Unexpected Consequences and Financial Disaster" are back with the gripping sequel "All Gas and Gaiters on the Barada"
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/08/23/assads_chemical_romance
I wrote to you way back in 2004 when this story was doing the rounds with stories of tests being carried out in Sudan. I think it got filed next to the Kuwaiti Incubators file.
Naturally, poor helpless potential victims are concerned.
http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/ambassador-oren-israel-is-very-concerned-about-syrian-wmds-1.380979
Thanks be to all the Gods there are are some hard headed realists around to call time on the scam.
http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/26/fear_incorporated
Next thing you know it will pop up in Governor Perrys campaign, supported by all the congressmen who have had freebies to Tel Aviv this summer.
Anthony Cordesman thinks Syria is a no no. From Time Magazines reprint og Josh Landis piece "Anthony Cordesman of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies has articulated a “don’t get involved” argument."
There are still a few sane people left in the US.
Admiral Mullen retires at the end of next month. I wonder what General Dempsey thinks of this landing on his plate.
Dear Professor Cole
Chatham House have published a paper on Policy Options in Libya.
http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/177753
One of the options they propose is buying back the weapons that have been distributed, stolen and otherwise misapropriated.
No chance! The gunrunners will pay better, if anyone is daft enough to part with his personal weapon.
The Daily Telegraph reports on Libyan weapons flooding into Gaza.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8718704/Looted-Libyan-arms-flooding-into-Gaza.html
Ho Hum. The law of unexpected consequences strikes again!